Bernie’s Redbird Review: Luken Baker, Instant Impact! But Why Did The Cardinals Wait So Long To Get Him Here?

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

I’ll be getting to Luken Baker a little later in the column …

THE LATE-SEASON OVERVIEW: The Cardinals are confounding. And interesting. And stubborn. Just when we thought this team was burnt pie for the season, the Redbirds have played some of their best baseball over the past few weeks …

– The Cards went 11-8 since Aug. 16 against a challenging schedule that put them in the pit for six games against the Brewers and 13 against the Dodgers, Padres, Twins and Yankees. All of those teams currently hold playoff spots.

– The Cards are 10-6 in the last 16 games, with two series victories over the Brewers, one series win over the Twins and Yankees, and a four-game split with the Padres. The Redbirds are 4-0-1 in their last five series, and definitely exceeded expectations. The tough schedule could have flattened them … but didn’t.

– The Cards have done even better in recent days, winning six of their last eight. The six wins were earned against the Padres, Yankees and Brewers.

– After going 1-6 in their first seven games against Milwaukee this season, the Cardinals are 5-2 in their last seven against the Crew.

In a different set of circumstances, the Cardinals would be hanging close and in position to strike in the final sprint for the No. 3 wild-card spot. But it hasn’t played out that way.

The Cardinals have two problems:

1. Time is their enemy. The Cardinals have 22 games remaining on their schedule, and face a daunting 5 and ½ game deficit in the wild-card standings.

2. Teams above them are staying strong. The Cardinals are pursuing the Braves, Mets and Cubs for the third wild-card pass, and those clubs have displayed little vulnerability. If the three teams were tripping and wheezing and squandering their favorable odds, then the Cardinals could find a lane to seize the third wild card. But that’s the issue; these teams aren’t stumbling to give the Redbirds  a wide-open path.

Here are the pertinent records since Aug. 20:

• Mets, 11-4
• Cubs, 11-4
• Braves, 10-5
• Cards, 10-6

Going into Aug. 20, the Cardinals were five games behind No. 3 Atlanta in the wild-card standings. So despite winning 10 of 16 games against elite opponents since then, the Cardinals actually LOST ground to the Braves, Mets and Cubs. And STL’s postseason odds got worse. FanGraphs now has the Cardinals with a 0.9 percent crack of making the playoffs.

So even though the Cardinals are technically alive in the postseason chase, they’re spinning in place and can’t move up. From a record standpoint, the Cardinals would have to do something extraordinary to make a serious run for a place in October’s tournament. Not only that, but their success wouldn’t matter unless the teams that they’re chasing all collapse and fail.

Based on math, the St. Louis playoff chances still have a pulse. But that’s about all we can say. The reality is grim.

LUKEN BAKER, INSTANT IMPACT: Frustrated Cardinals fans were pleading for Baker to be promoted from Triple A Memphis to give the Cardinals more bang off the bench … and more power against right-handed pitching. The left-handed slugger has delivered since being added to the big club on Aug. 24.

The latest scene materialized Wednesday night in his team’s 3-2 win over Milwaukee. Baker came off the bench to plate the winning RBI on a 10th inning single.

It was a great piece of strategy there by manager Oli Marmol, who surprised the Milwaukee dugout by sending Baker in to pinch-hit for Brendan Donovan to gain the advantage against lefty reliever Hoby Milner. In bringing Miler in, Brewers manager Pat Murphy assumed Donovan would take the at-bat – but Marmol had other plans. And once again we saw Baker break a left-handed pitcher.

These are small-sample examples, but Baker didn’t make his first appearance for the Cardinals until the third week of August, and tiny samples are all that I have to go on:

+ Baker vs. lefty pitchers: three hits, three walks, two home runs, six RBIs, .500 average, .600 onbase percentage, and a 1.500 slugging pct.

+ Baker when entering as a substitute: 11 plate appearances, two hits, three walks, one homer, four RBIs, .714 slug, .455 OBP, 1.169 OPS.

+ Baker as a pinch hitter: 2 for 5, (.400), one walk, a homer, four RBIs, .429 OBP and .429 slug.

Baker has excelled in pressure situations:

+ High-leverage spots: 3 for 6 with a double, home run and six RBIs.

+ Runners in scoring position: 4 for 9 (.444), four walks, two home runs, nine RBIs.

+ RISP with two outs: 2 for 6 and three walks, with a homer and three RBIs.

Since Baker joined the Cardinals, they are 7-4 when he appears in a game and 3-1 when he starts.

When batting with runners in scoring position this season, bench pieces Matt Carpenter, Brendan Crawford and Jose Fermin have combined for 12 RBIs in 72 plate appearances.

Baker has nine RBIs with RISP in only 15 plate appearances.

Fans who implored the St. Louis front office to give the big man an opportunity were absolutely right. Imagine how many other games the Cardinals might have won with Baker in place as a bench/platoon asset all season.

CARDINALS VS. WINNERS & LOSERS: The 2024 Cardinals actually have won more series (12) against teams above .500 than series won (11) against opponents that are .500 or worse as of today. Perhaps it’s a little misleading.

– Series record vs. winning teams: 12-11-3.

– Series record vs. teams .500 or worse: 11-6-2.

The Cardinals are 71-69, and I’m surprised they’ve done reasonably well against the better teams. Their 12 series wins against the tougher opponents were achieved against the Braves (2), Brewers (2), Cubs (2), Orioles (1), Yankees (1), Padres (1), Diamondbacks (1), Mets (1) and Twins (1).

HAVE THE CARDINALS OVERACHIEVED? That’s one way to look at it, based on their run differential. The Cardinals have been outscored by 54 runs this season for the 10th worst run differential in the majors. Based on that run differential, St. Louis has an expected record of 64-76 (.457) That’s seven games better than their actual record of 71-69, .507.

BULLPEN HAMMERS: In the three-game series at Milwaukee, Cards relievers struck out 37 percent of their 54 batters faced. In the two consecutive extra-innings victories that clinched the series win, the St. Louis bullpen was superb.

• 40 batters faced
• 10.1 innings
• 1 earned run
• 0.87 ERA
• 37.5% strikeout rate
• .118 batting average

The 10 and ⅓ relief innings over the final two games of the series were supplied by Andrew Kittredge, Ryan Fernandez, Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero and Matthew Liberatore. Gotta like this stat: over the two games, Helsley, Fernandez and Kittredge struck out 48 percent of their 25 batters faced. Fernandez bolted down Wednesday’s 3-2 dubya by strikeing out the side in the 10th. Awesome job.

I mentioned earlier that the Cardinals have won five of the last seven games played against Milwaukee. In the five victories Cardinals relievers combined for a 2.11 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 21 and ⅓ innings. And the STL relievers faced 84 hitters in the five wins and allowed just one home run.

CARDS ICE MILWAUKEE BATS: In the back-to-back losses to St. Louis, the Brewers went 11 for 76 (.145) with a 34.5 percent strikeout rate. And with runners in scoring position, the Crew had only two hits in 26 at-bats and struck out 15 times. That’s dominant pitching.

SONNY GRAY, ROAD WARRIOR? The Cardinals’ No. 1 starter came into Wednesday’s assignment with a 5.62 road ERA in 11 starts. And he’d allowed a horrible average of 2.2 home runs per nine innings in road games.

Gray cleaned that up with an outstanding start against the Brewers. In seven innings the righty was nicked for one run, four hits and a walk and struck out seven. The Brewers had nine plate appearances with runners in scoring position against Gray and did not get a hit. They did score a run in a RISP situation against Gray but it came on a ground-out.

Gray lowered his road ERA on the season to 5.20. The Cardinals are 15-11 when Gray starts a game this season, and his 29.9 percent strikeout rate is fifth best among major-league starters.

In Wednesday’s start, Gray diversified his pitch selection early in counts and it kept the Brewers guessing. While Gray still relied heavily on his four-seam fastball and sinker, he went with the cutter, curve or changeup in nine first-pitch offerings. And he used those three pitches 20 times in the first three pitches in an at-bat. Gray’s sweeper was magnificent (as usual.) The Brewers went 0 for 6 against Gray’s best pitch, struck out four times, and had a whiff-swing rate of 54.5 percent.

As always, thank you for reading.

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.