Bernie’s Redbird Review: Masyn Winn Is A Special Player.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

There’s some day baseball on the menu Thursday, with Cardinals and Padres playing their series finale at 1:15 p.m. The Redbirds can salvage a 2-2 series split by winning this one. Not that it will matter in the standings. The Cards (66-67) are seven games out of the NL’s third wild-card spot and FanGraphs gives them a 1.1 percent possibility of making the playoffs. Plenty of cheap tickets are available for today’s competition.

I’m off to a late start – technology is not my pal today – so The Review will be shorter than usual. I’m getting this one finished just a few minutes before the scheduled first pitch.

ABOUT LAST NIGHT: The Cardinals pulled up their britches to grab a 4-3 win over the Friars on a walk-off single by Nolan Arenado in the ninth. I liked the generational blend that went into the manufacturing of the winning run. Rookie Masyn Winn began the process with a two-out, two-strike single. Rookie Victor Scott II moved Winn into scoring position with a single. The victory was cashed in by Arenado.

Arenado is 33, a veteran of 12 MLB seasons, and has played 1,654 regular-season games in the bigs.

Winn is 22, has played in 161 major-league games.

Scott, 23, is a “veteran” of 41 MLB games.

The two rookies have 201 games between them – only 1,453 fewer than ‘Nado.

MASYN WINN, SUNSHINE ON A CLOUDY DAY: How do you like that Temptations reference? It wasn’t surprising to see Winn extend the bottom of the ninth with his money-time, two-out, two-strike hit. Among 123 major-league hitters that have handled at least 500 two-strike counts this season, Winn ranks third with a .271 batting average and seventh with a .391 slugging percentage. This is a direct reflection on his advanced maturity, refined baseball intelligence, and a keen instinct for game situations.

How about this? This season Winn has hit .288 with a healthy onbase rate (.353) with two outs. That’s really good. But in two-out situations with two strikes in the count, check out Winn’s hitting line:

.377 average
.434 onbase pct
.449 slugging pct
.883 OPS
– wRC+ (adjusted runs created) that’s 53 percent above the league average.

And on a team that is awful in the critically important area of effective hitting with runners in scoring position, Winn is hitting .265 overall with RISP. And .286 with runners in scoring position on two-strike counts. And – get this – a .360 average with runners in scoring position when facing the pressure of two outs and two strikes.

Manager Oli Marmol has so much confidence and belief in Winn, he moved the rookie into the leadoff spot earlier this season. It can be a difficult assignment for an inexperienced hitter, and Winn had a poor .288 leadoff onbase percentage before the All-Star break.

Ah, but he’s Masyn Winn. And Masyn Winn understands what he must do to get better – for himself and for the team. And since the All-Star break, Winn has a leadoff onbase percentage of .340 to go with a .461 slug and .800 OPS. This man knows how to adapt.

And then there’s Winn’s defense. He leads MLB shortstops with 14 Defensive Runs Saved this season. And that +14 is tied for third in the majors overall, with every other position included.

Winn is special. And he’ll only improve and become even more exceptional over time.

VICTOR SCOTT: Part II is working out better than Part I, when Scott was prompted to the show ahead of schedule to fill the void left by injuries in center field.

In his first 20 big-league games, Scott batted .085 with a .274 OPS. In his next 20 games – which covers the time since his promotion from the minors in early August – Scott has a .238 average and .670 OPS.

Those recent numbers don’t stand out, but they jump out to me for a reason: they show how much progress Scott has made. And that’s a positive. If you need confirmation of Scott’s improvement, he’s hit .364 with a 1.008 OPS in his last seven games.

NOLAN ARENADO: This is one of the best quotes of the year by a Cardinal player. Arenado offered a bluntly honest assessment of how he’s let negative emotions seep into him because of his frustration with his highly documented struggles on offense in 2024.

“What I’ve come to realize is that if I’m not going to perform well, I’m definitely not going to be a cancer in this clubhouse to anybody,” Arenado told the STL media after bringing home the winning run Thursday. “I’m still going to try to help. I mean, I can still lead in different ways. It may not be with performance, but I can still help these guys out, spend time with them and get to know them.

“The young guys, with their energy, it’s helped me to perform better because I just want to compete with them and enjoy it. I’m trying to get lost in the competition and not be too worried about what my numbers say. I know they’re not where I want them to be, but I can’t change it overnight. I want to go out there and compete and whatever happens, happens.”

Arenado really means this. I appreciate his self awareness. If you read me (or listen to me), you’ll know I’ve used the phrase “a lot of negative energy” many times this season when referencing Arenado and his flawed leadership. I’ve also commented on his visibly distressed body language.

It isn’t easy for a highly decorated but aging player to suddenly deal with a substantial loss of power; no one would expect him to be Mr. Happy. But his negativity was, well, negative for the team. And he had been this way for a while, going back to last season.

I respect Arenado for recognizing that his negativism was detrimental. He’s trying hard to change. Pardon my amateur psychology, but a more positive attitude can only help Arenado cope with the inevitable slumps and self doubt. He beats himself up. If he does that too much, it makes his personality turn darker. That isn’t beneficial for anyone – especially Arenado.

In his last 46 games, Arenado has hit .297 with a .451 slug and .797 OPS. He has seven homers and 27 RBIs over that time. In August, through Wednesday, Arenado has hit .302 with a .448 slug and 16 runs batted in. This month he’s also come through with a .375 average and 14 RBIs in 24 at-bats with runners in scoring position.

SPEAKING OF THE OLDIES: Paul Goldschmidt went 7 for 11 with a homer and four RBIs in the first three games of the current series. He’s in the lineup today.

BURLY BALL: He batted .333 with an .896 OPS in his last 11 games through Wednesday.

ANDRE “PALLY” PALLANTE: The young righthander competed like a hellion Wednesday. He faced 27 Padres and 10 reached base (37%) on eight hits and two walks. He also was charged with two wild pitches. The Padres took determined at-bats and made Pallante work feverishly over his 104-pitch work shift. But the Padres couldn’t break him. The key: Pallante allowed only one hit in eight at-bats with runners in scoring position. And with men on base, the Padres batted .231 against him. Pallante could have given up more than two runs in his 5 and ⅔ innings, but he fought hard to cap the damage.

Pallante has a 3.02 in his last 10 starts, and a 3.50 ERA overall in his 15 starts this season. Among Cardinal pitchers that have made at least 10 starts since Pallante joined the rotation on May 29, here’s the simple rundown of their performances based on ERA:

Andre Pallante, 3.50
Lance Lynn, 4.78
Sonny Gray, 4.92
Miles Mikolas: 4.96
Kyle Gibson, 5.35

Gray goes for the Cardinals this afternoon. Gray has been horrendous on the road this season with a 5.62 ERA and 16 home runs allowed. But in 13 home starts, Gray has a 2.72 at Busch Stadium and has been struck for only four homers in 76 innings. This season Gray’s 2.72 home ERA is the seventh best among pitchers that have started at least 13 games in their home ballparks.

RYAN HELSLEY, RING THE BELL: He got the win Wednesday in his seventh consecutive appearance of scoreless pitching. In the seven games Pallante has five saves and two victories and has struck out 26 percent of batters faced. He’s allowed more baserunners in recent weeks but doesn’t rattle. Helsley is still among the best closers in the sport for 2024.

Pardon my typos …

Thanks for reading…

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.