Bernie’s Redbird Review: Michael Siani’s Value To The Cardinals Continues To Grow.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

We’ve come to admire Michael Siani’s defense in center field. In both defensive runs saved and outs above average, Siani is running in a virtual tie at the top of the center-field leaderboard with Washington rookie Jacob Young. Siani certainly will be in the discussion when the Gold Glove talk starts to bubble.

There’s more to Siani than his ability to take away doubles, terminate triples, and kill singles with his speedy, wide-ranging defense that has no boundaries. Siani could cover Forest Park if you asked him to.

I think we should reevaluate our overall assessment of Siani’s value to the 2024 Cardinals. We don’t think of Siani as an asset offensively, but he’s trying to change the perception.

Here are some below-the-radar numbers on Siani’s hitting that may surprise you. This isn’t intended to make the case that Siani is Jim Edmonds, or something. Heavens no. But what I’m passing along here is meant to show Siani’s gradual improvement through more playing time.

– In 77 plate appearances since June 16, Siani is batting .288 with a .316 onbase percentage and .397 slugging percentage. Big numbers? No. But context is necessary. These are good numbers for a defensive ace who saves runs for his pitchers.

– Since June 16, Siani’s .288 average ranks third among Cardinals in batting average, trailing only Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson.

– Siani’s .316 OBP since June 16 is higher than that of Paul Goldschmidt, Masyn Winn and Nolan Gorman.

– Siani’s .397 slug since June 16 is the same as Winn and higher than the slugging rates posted by Gorman and Nolan Arenado.

– Siani’s .713 OPS since June 16 is the fourth best among regular Cardinals. Not only that, the .713 OPS tops Arenado (.707) and Goldschmidt (.713) over that time.

– Siani also leads the Cardinals in stolen bases (6) since June 16.

Siani continues to heat up …

– Since June 24, he’s batting .309 overall but has thrashed right-handed pitchers for a .325 average, .357 OBP and .375 slug. His wRC+ against righties over that time is 12 percent above league average offensively.

– Siani’s slugging percentage (.375) against RHP since June 24th is higher than that put up by Goldschmidt (.361) and Arenado (.328.) Oh, my.

– Siani’s .732 OPS vs. righties since June 24 puts him above Gorman (.704), Lars Nootbaar (.683), Arenado (.646) and Goldschmidt (.564.)

– Siani, who bats left, doesn’t get a lot of at-bats vs. lefty pitchers. But even then, he’s gone 4 for 15 against them (.267) since June 24.

– Siani went 4 for 10 in Atlanta over the weekend, helping the Cardinals win two of three games from the Braves.

Flaws? Sure. Siani strikes out too much, doesn’t walk much, and lacks power. And all of the positive numbers I’ve cited here can be found in the small-sample bin. But the point is, Siani has made progress offensively. And he’s been a really good baserunner and small-ball specialist all along.

As an inexperienced major-league hitter who earned an expanded role with the big club for defense-first reasons, Siani’s upturn on offense only adds to his value.

Since June 16, only three St. Louis position players have more Wins Above Replacement than Siani: Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson and Willson Contreras.

Siani has 1.1 WAR for the season. That may not look like much, but among big-league outfielders Siani’s 1.1 WAR matches Corbin Carroll, the reigning NL Rookie of the Year. And it’s the same as Jesse Winker and Mike Yastrzemski.

Siani’s 1.1 WAR for the entire season is above many notable outfielders including Cody Bellinger, Randy Arozarena, Jarred Kelenic, Seiya Suzuki, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Will Castro, Michael Conforto, Lane Thomas, Mark Canha and Brent Rooker.

Bellinger got hurt (broken finger) shortly before the All-Star break, but that’s not why Siani has outperformed Bellinger in WAR. Bellinger has more plate appearances (258) than Siani (225) this season.

Before Ronald Acuna Jr. suffered a season-ending knee injury, he had 1.1 WAR in 222 plate appearances. Siani has 1.1 WAR in 225 PA. If you believe in the value of defense, then Siani has plenty of value, and those WAR metrics shouldn’t offend you.

What, if anything, does this prove?

A) Siani is a surprise. A most pleasant surprise. That’s always a plus for a contending team. I don’t think any of us would have predicted Siani earning such a prominent role by the All-Star break.

He’s gone from being a marginal major-leaguer to one of the Cardinals’ more valuable pieces during their rise to postseason contention. His emergence has coincided with the Cardinals’ finest stretch of winning baseball. And he’s one of their best storylines of the season.

B) You never know about a player until he gets a full opportunity.

C) The St. Louis front office was smart to claim Siani on waivers (from the Reds) last September. It’s never a stupid idea to take a flier on a young player who has terrific speed and elite defensive range. Siani’s sprint speed is in the top 20 percent of MLB players this season, and his defensive range is at the very top of the Statcast rankings.

D) Serendipity is a thing. The Cardinals didn’t plan to turn their center-field gig over to Siani; they’d be the first to acknowledge that. But the CF plans were altered and redrawn after injuries to Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar and a poor audition by rookie prospect Victor Scott II. The Cardinals didn’t want to play Nootbaar in center on a regular basis, but he can be used there – but not when he’s on the IL for two extended stays during the season’s first half. Hey, Siani! It’s your turn. And I give credit to manager Oli Marmol for sticking with Siani as his de facto starters. St. Louis pitchers are happy with the manager’s decision.

E) Siani provides value with his exceptional defense. That would be true if the dude was batting .168. But he’s better than that. Siani is evolving into a more capable hitter through extensive reps in the batter’s box.

I do not lose sight of the fact that Siani’s 66 wRC+ for the season is 34 percent below league average offensively. Yeah, that’s pretty bad. But relative to how Siani started out offensively this season, you have to like the way he’s trending.

Compared to where his numbers sat after the first two months of the regular season, here’s a look at Siani’s improvement since the beginning of June:

+ OPS is up 108 points
+ Batting average up 60 points
+ Slugging percentage up 88 points
+ wRC+ up 25 points

Siani’s impact on the campaign is undeniable.

Since May 12, the Cardinals are 36-20 (.643) with Siani in the starting lineup.

And they’re 20-10 (.667) in Siani’s last 30 games as a starting player.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.