Bernie’s Redbird Review: Moving Alec Burleson To The No. 2 Lineup Spot Was Smart. But Can The Cardinals Maximize It?

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

One of the best moves made by Cardinals manager Oli Marmol this season was the decision to upgrade Alec Burleson to a VIP position in the lineup.

Burleson is thriving at a spot where many managers place their best hitter.

And that tells us a plenty about Burleson’s emergence as a go-to guy. He’s essentially displaced Paul Goldschmidt from the prestigious No. 2 platform in the batting order.

Burleson is actually a fine fit in any lineup order from 2nd through 5th; it’s just a matter of managerial preference. But back on May 26, Marmol stationed Burleson in the No. 2 position and the big man has pretty much stayed there, logging 83 percent of STL’s plate appearances at the two nook.

The results are sweet.

This season 36 major-league hitters have made at least plate appearances on the No. 2 line. Here’s where Burleson ranks among the 24 in various categories:

• .285 batting average, 7th
• .331 onbase percentage, 16th
• .534 slugging percentage, 7th
• .865 OPS, 8th
• .240 Isolated Power, 6th
• 143 wRC+, 9th

That 143 wRC+ puts Burleson at 43 percent above league average offensively. And that’s also 30 percent higher than the league-wide wRC+ for No. 2 hitters.

Since May 26, Burleson is tied with Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds among No. 2 batters for the major-league lead in home runs (10) and RBIs (28.)

Burleson is proud to occupy this important place in the St. Louis lineup. As he told John Denton (MLB.com) and other reporters Wednesday:

“That’s where I want to be, right, because that’s the spot everybody wants to hit. I kind of look at that as my ability to do different things. Coming up in the Minor Leagues, I was always in that number 3, 4 or 5 spot as an RBI [guy.] But now I’m understanding that the No. 2 hole is one where you still want to bang the ball around, but you also need to get on base because there are people behind me who can drive me in.

“I take a lot of pride in being in that spot. You take a look at who our No. 2 hole hitter has been the last few years in [Paul Goldschmidt], so I’m grateful for it and I want to stick there by producing.”

The Cardinals are 24-18 since Burleson was relocated to the second spot. They’ve averaged 4.3 runs over that time. I was a little surprised by this; I thought the run-scoring average would be higher than that.

But upon further review, I can see why the lineup’s success is more solid than spectacular since May 26. And the way I see it, this has a lot to do with the batters hitting in front of Burleson. And I don’t think the Cardinals are maximizing what they have in Burleson.

Masyn Winn became the leadoff hitter on May 27, so his presence corresponds with Burleson’s rise to the No. 2 post. But this just isn’t about Winn as the No. 1 hitter. Because as the lineup turns, the No. 8 and No. 9 hitters have a chance to get on base and set up Burleson for RBI opportunities.

I suppose the same can be said about STL’s No. 7 hitters, but the assignment has been passed around a bit, and the onbase rate at the seventh position has been inflated by Brendan Donovan and Brandon Crawford. And they’ve only combined for 29 plate appearances as No. 7 hitters during Burly’s time in the second spot.

OK, so how have the 8-9-1 hitters set the bags for Burleson? Not great. The collective onbase percentage from the three lineup spots that lead to Burleson is only .290. That ranks 18th in the majors.

Since May 27, Masyn Winn has a .285 onbase percentage in 158 plate appearances as the leadoff man. His overall performance there (per wRC+) is 24 percent below league average. Winn is new to the gig, and he probably needs time to get comfortable in the top spot.

But when you have Burleson hitting with prominent authority as the No. 2 bat, it’s important to load him up with as many runners as possible. And the Cardinals aren’t doing that.

Since May 26, Burleson has 36 plate appearances with runners in scoring position as STL’s No. 2 hitter. Several other No. 2s have more, including Lane Thomas, Adley Rutschman, Bobby Witt Jr., William Contreras and Elly De La Cruz.

Since the transfer to the No. 2 post, Burleson has done an exceptional job of giving the Cardinals chances to plate some runs. With runners in scoring position Burly is batting .367 with a .633 slugging percentage from his new lineup site. He has 16 RBIs in those situations, but no one can blame us for wanting more.

Marmol could put Brendan Donovan at leadoff, or go with Lars Nootbaar there. They’ve both displayed the ability to draw walks and get on base. But Donovan has become a vital presence in the deeper sections of the lineup. In 114 plate appearances batting fifth, sixth or seventh since May 26, Donovan has delivered a .330 average, .395 onbase percentage and .476 slug.

For his efforts Donovan has all of 15 RBIs during his time at any of the three spots since May 26. Goldschmidt’s onbase percentage continues to lag behind his earlier-career standards. That’s just one factor. Nolan Arenado has done a much better job of getting on base since Marmol moved him down in the lineup. Arenado has a .376 OBP since May 26 when batting fifth.

Will Winn eventually pay off as the leadoff man? Should Marmol stay patient and keep Winn at the top spot? As I wrote a while back, Winn has tremendous numbers this season when hitting eighth or ninth in the lineup. Specifically, I’m referring to his .396 average, .442 OBP and .554 slug in 115 plate appearances batting at No. 8 or No. 9. Perhaps Marmol will be interested in doing some reverse engineering.

This isn’t an easy puzzle to put in place just right. Nootbaar could rearrange things. I’d like to see if Marmol has any ideas that can give Burleson more chances to drive in runs. Runs are good!

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.