Bernie’s Redbird Review: Near The Halfway Mark Of 2024, Masyn Winn Is Cardinals’ First-Half MVP.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

After a rainout, the Cardinals (40-37) and Braves will play a split doubleheader with two games on Wednesday. The unscheduled break on Tuesday didn’t slow down the season. The dates on the baseball calendar are flipping fast.

The Cardinals are nearing the halfway point of the 2024 campaign. They’ve played 77 games and will compete in their 81st contest Friday night. After that meeting with the Reds, the Cards will be 50 percent into their regular-season schedule.

I’m getting a jump on my midseason look at the ‘24 Redbirds. I’ll do this with installments rather than load you down (as I usually do) with a massive piece. I’m thinking it’s time for me to adjust and do that, anyway.

Here’s the first presentation …

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

Masyn Winn.

Of course. The rookie shortstop is an easy choice. Seriously, it’s not even close. Winn leads Cardinal regulars in batting average (.298), onbase percentage (.341) and triples. He’s second in slugging percentage (.433), extra-base hits, doubles, most times on base, and stolen bases. And Masyn the Winner is third on the team in OPS (.773) and OPS+ (118).

In the advanced statistical categories, Winn leads the Cardinals with 2.8 total WAR (wins above replacement.) He leads St. Louis in offensive WAR, defensive WAR and runs fielding. And he’s second in runs created.

It’s a delight to watch Winn hit, play defense, and run the bases. At age 22, he has a deep understanding of the game and a sharp eye for details. He’s highly evolved in situational hitting. That’s evidenced by his .272 batting average on two-strike counts, a mark that is fourth best in the majors among hitters that have at least 100 at-bats that include a two-strike situation.

One of Wynn’s finest attributes as a hitter is his ability to hit to all fields. That makes it difficult for opponents to defend him. Winn does damage as a hitter but he isn’t always swinging to do damage; he has a pragmatic approach.

Winn is determined to put the ball in play, hit a pitch to an area that’s less populated with fielders, and will settle for singles if it means getting on base and avoiding making an out.

Winn’s maturity is impressive. His strikeout rate (20%) is lower than the league average (22.8%.) Though he does chase pitches out of the zone too often, it hasn’t hurt him much. Winn ranks a close second to Brendan Donovan among Cardinals in overall contact rate, and contact rate on strikes. His swinging-strike percentage (7%) is the best on the team and ranks 22nd among 146 qualifying major-league hitters.

Here’s a look at the Winn’s effectiveness in hitting to all fields. I love this stat and wanted to share it with you …

Pulling the pitch: 70 at-bats, 32 hits, .457 average
Straightaway: 60 at-bats, 20 hits, .333.
Opposite field: 61 at-bats, 21 hits, .344.

Defensively, Winn might be the Cardinals’ best shortstop since … say it … Ozzie Smith. (Apologies to Edgar Renteria, Paul DeJong and David Eckstein.) Winn is certainly trending in that direction. I say this because of his range, powerful arm, and refined skills at starting or turning double-play grounders.

Here’s where Winn ranks among all MLB shortstops going into Wednesday’s slate of games:

Defensive Runs Saved: No. 1 with eight. He’s tied for third in the majors in defensive runs saved among all players, all positions.
Range Above Average: No. 2.
Arm Strength: No. 2 at 93.7 mph.
Double Plays Above Average: No. 2
Starting Double Plays: 4th.
Turning Double Plays: 2nd.
Assists: 7th.
Fielding Bible Plus/Minus: +5, tied for 3rd.

Wynn doesn’t score as well in the Outs Above Average metric at Statcast, which has him below standard in Outs Above Average. This makes no sense to me. That’s why I stick with Sports Info Solutions and its defensive runs saved metric. The analysts there review every play, and take their duties very seriously.  I trust their process.

All you have to do is watch Masyn Winn play to know he’s special and a cut above most shortstops. He’s made 10 errors, and I suppose we can fuss about that. But other than taking note of it, I’ll pass. He does so many things well at shortstop, a few of rookie-type transgressions are understandable. He’ll only improve over time.

Through Monday, Winn’s 2.8 WAR would rank as the second best in a season among St. Louis rookies ages 22 years or younger. The same is true of Winn’s OPS+.

The only Cardinal rookie to have more WAR and a higher OPS than Winn at the same age in a season is Albert Pujols in 2001. Enough said.

With the way Winn is tracking in the season’s first half, he has a good chance of winning the NL’s Rookie of the Year award for 2024. Based on the value of his all-around performance, FanGraphs estimates that Wynn’s season would be worth a one-year salary of $12.6 million. And that will continue to grow over the remainder of the season. Winn is making a fraction of that. There’s no Cardinal on the roster who delivers more value for the dollar than M. Winn.

Next Up: Biggest Disappointment. I pretty much have it written so it will be coming to you in a little while.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided perspective and informed opinions on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available wherever you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted. In this column I used the Baseball Reference version of WAR.