Bernie’s Redbird Review: On A Manic Monday, The Cardinals Waste A Great Start And Give Away A Game.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

FOR TUESDAY, APRIL 26, 2022

After being flattened by a lightning bolt to the jaw, the Cardinals have the opportunity to make an immediate recovery by defeating the Mets on Tuesday night at Busch Stadium.

Really, that’s all they can do after being stunned by a hideous 5-2 loss to the Mets on Monday. The Cardinals blew a 2-0 lead in the ninth with the Mets fighting off multiple final-pitch, game-over scenarios to exploit a suddenly inept St. Louis defense.

New York’s five-run rebellion in the top of the ninth was a credit to the team’s fierce competitiveness, and clearly the Mets have a different team personality under first-year manager Buck Showalter.

This is also true: the Mets wouldn’t have made their hopping-happy comeback unless the Cardinals lapsed into chaos to make the disaster possible.

There was a Nolan Arenado throwing error that gave the Mets their first run. There was an inexcusable mental blunder by closer Giovanny Gallegos, who messed up twice by (1) delaying to cover first base on time to receive a toss from Paul Goldschmidt for a game-clinching out and (2) failing to wheel and throw home to nab Jeff McNeil, who scored the run that put the Mets up 3-2. The Mets scored two runs on that play on one swing of Dominic Smith’s bat … and the ball didn’t go beyond the infield. Brandon Nimmo finished off the Cardinals with a two-run homer off lefty reliever T.J. McFarland.

Then again, you all know this already and don’t require a recap. I apologize for the redundancy. But this was a horrible and avoidable loss. After a 7-3 start to the season, the Cardinals have lost three of their last five games. They’ll go into Tuesday’s game with their first losing streak (two games) of the season.

The Cardinals have a 9-6 record. There’s nothing wrong with that … well, unless you pause to realize that they should be 10-5, and probably 11-4. Monday’s game got away. Sunday’s game in Cincinnati was frustrating and a giveaway for different reasons. If the Cardinals had only competed with an edge, dug in, and put pressure on the home team Sunday in Cincy – just like the Mets would do a day later in St. Louis – they would have given themselves a chance to rally instead of rolling over quietly in a 4-1 loss to a dreadful team. As for Monday: you can’t get dominated by Max Scherzer, and pounce for a 2-0 lead after he left the game – only to give the game away.

This early pattern of donating victories to opponents needs to stop right now. For all of their bold spring-time talk about winning the 2022 World Series, the Cardinals would do well to focus on this little exercise known as “The 162-game regular season.”

LET’S REVIEW, SHALL WE? 

MILES: A KIND OF BLUE. Monday’s collapse wasted a sterling performance by starting pitcher Miles Mikolas, who confidently handled his end of the duel with Scherzer. Mikolas crafted his way through seven shutout innings, giving up only four hits and a walk while striking out five. In his last three starts Mikolas has yielded only one run, 11 hits and two walks in 18.2 innings for a sparkling 0.48 ERA. After his first four starts Mikolas has a 1.21 ERA that ranks 7th among 54 qualifying starting pitchers. Mikolas is showing us the impressive form that we witnessed in 2018, his first year with the Cardinals.

AS THE ROTATION TURNS: Cardinal starting pitchers have a 1.88 ERA over the team’s last 10 games. For the season, the rotation ERA has been whittled down to 3.30. That ranks 10th in the majors. It’s a nice bounce-back from the 6.86 starting-pitching ERA posted by the Cardinals in their first five games. In their last five starts (combined) Mikolas and Steven Matz have been scratched for two earned runs in 29.1 innings.

STL HITTERS, PLEASE BE MORE COMPETITIVE: I realize the Cardinals have encountered a few exceptional starting pitchers early on: Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff, Miami’s Sandy Alcantara, and Scherzer. And the Cardinals were also easily handled by Miami’s Pablo Lopez, who has the best starting-pitching ERA in the majors (0.52) after three starts.

But hey, this is part of the deal. The best starters face a lot of different teams during the long season, and the Cardinals have to do what they can. And they certainly should be doing better than they have when going against top-gun pitchers.

Here’s what Woodruff, Alcantara, Lopez did to the STL hitters in four combined starts:

• 27 innings
• 0 runs
• 12 hits
• 3 walks
• 27 strikeouts
• .156 onbase percentage
• .129 batting average

The best pitchers are the best pitchers for a reason, and they make many opponents look amateurs. It isn’t supposed to be an easy ride against them. But c’mon now? … NO RUNS and only 15 baserunners in 27 innings? The fellers have to be a lot more competitive than that.

And opponents don’t require the presence of an ace to gum up the Cardinals offense. The Cards averaged only 3.3 runs in the three-game series at Cincinnati, didn’t homer in 106 at–bats, slugged a feeble .302 and went 8 for 40 (.200) with runners in scoring position. This, against a pitching staff that has the worst ERA in the majors (5.47) and plays in a launching-pad ballpark.

THE STL OFFENSE, PART TWO: In their first six games of 2022, the Cardinals averaged 6.0 runs per competition. They batted .271 with a .493 slugging percentage and .836 OPS. They homered 11 times and had an outstandingly low strikeout rate of 16,6 percent. But in their last nine games, the Cardinals have averaged 2.9 runs, batted .209, slugged a woeful .275 and wobbled to a .564 OPS. Their strikeout rate over the last nine games is an inflated 24.4 percent.

The Cardinals have struck for only two home runs in 302 at-bats over the last nine. And this slumping offense hasn’t homered in its last 173 at-bats.

THE STL OFFENSE, PART THREE: I wanted to look at each spot in the Cardinals’ lineup and compare it to the overall performance at each lineup slot in the majors. I kept it simple by using OPS and here’s what I came up with:

First: .673 OPS in MLB, .509 for Cards.
Second: .771 … .676 Cardinals.
Third: .703 … .629 for Cardinals.
Fourth: .718 … .1.078 for Cardinals.
Fifth: .690 … .597 for Cardinals.
Sixth: .641 … .619 for Cardinals.
Seventh: .590 … .462 for Cardinals.
Eighth: .661 … .582 for Cardinals.
Ninth: .605 … .905 Cardinals.

Nolan Arenado batting fourth and Tommy Edman (mostly) batting ninth. The only two St. Louis lineup spots that are performing above the league average.

EYE ON THE DH: Corey Dickerson got the start against Scherzer and went 0 for 4 with a strikeout. Mini-sample size and all that, but the STL designated hitters are 5 for 43 (.116) vs. right-handed pitchers this season. All five hits are singles. Their OPS of .341 vs. RHP ranks 29th in the majors.

Thanks to the damage inflicted by Albert Pujols against left-handed pitching, the Cardinals’ overall .628 OPS at DH against all pitching ranks 15th among the 30 teams. But the futility against RH pitching is definitely an early problem for St. Louis. Dickerson, a LH batter, is 4 for 27 (.148) with four RBIs against RH pitching this season.

The addition of the DH to National League offenses hasn’t provided much of a boost during the opening month of the season. NL teams collectively have gotten a .214 average, .347 slug and .654 OPS from their designated hitters.

LET’S TALK ABOUT GIOVANNY GALLEGOS: Something isn’t right, and I’m not just saying that because he had a brutal ninth inning against the Mets. Gallegos didn’t look good in his previous relief appearance, at Cincinnati. And there have been issues since the final three months of last season. Read on …

A few notes on Gio:

– In his last two calls into action, Gallegos has been popped for six hits and five earned runs in 1.2 innings. And he didn’t strike any of the 11 batters faced.

– His strikeout has dropped at a substantial rate. From 2019 through 2021, Gallegos struck out 31.7 percent of batters faced. Early this year his strikeout rate is an alarming 16.7%.

– In his previous three seasons Gallegos had a 2.91 ERA, and allowed a .181 average and .548 OPS. In seven appearances this season, his ERA is 6.43 and he’s allowed a .286 average and .690 OPS.

– Gallegos is throwing more sliders than four-seam fastballs, and that’s a change from the past. In the three seasons prior to 2022, Gallegos threw the slider 44 percent of the time, and the four-seamer 53.48 percent of the time. So far this season, he’s thrown 50% sliders, 40% four-seamers and 9.5% changeups. Hitters have a .333 average and .412 slug against the four-seamer so far, but the sample size is way too low to matter.

– This jumps out to me: Last season Gallegos rolled through the first three months and seemed to tire – though he did rally for a strong September. Still, his performance has declined over time.

This:

From the start of 2019 through the end of June last season, Gallegos had a 2.34 ERA in 131 innings with a strikeout rate of 33.4 percent and a WHIP of 0.76. Opponents batted .160 with a .495 OPS.

But since the beginning of July last season through his Monday-night assignment against the Mets, the numbers tell a different story: 4.57 ERA in 45.1 innings, a 27.5 percent strikeout rate, and 1.15 WHIP. Opponents have batted .240 against him with a .692 OPS. And without dumping more stats on you, he hasn’t been as effective against LH batters.

Clearly Gallegos has become a more vulnerable reliever. He was pushed hard by former manager Mike Shildt – something I referenced multiple times in the second half of 2021. Or maybe opponents have figured him out and know what to expect.

Manager Oli Marmol can disregard the “before” and “after” picture of Gallegos if he’d like … and I’m sure that he will.

Make no mistake about it, Gallegos is Oli’s closer … no matter how many times Marmol tells the media he doesn’t have a designated closer. And if there’s one thing we know about recent Cardinals managers it’s this: they can’t help themselves when it comes to their closer. They’re remarkably reluctant to give the ball to another reliever in a save opportunity, and it doesn’t matter if their preferred closer is falling apart.(See: Alex Reyes vs. Chris Taylor, 2021 NL wild-card game.)  I’m hopeful Marmol will break away from the predictable old-man way of using a closer … but that’s to be determined.

FINAL WORD ON THIS: One more thing to illuminate the issue: since the beginning of July last season, Gallegos has a 3.57 ERA when he pitches the seventh or eighth inning. And when he pitches the ninth inning? Well, the ERA is 5.56. And he has a lower strikeout rate in the ninth compared to the seventh-eighth.

Gallegos has never been fully comfortable as the closer; he’s much more confident as an elite setup guy. Since the start of the 2019 season he has a 3.01 ERA in the seventh-eighth and a 4.13 ERA in the ninth.

But he’s the closer so … it’s ridiculous.

That’s the weird thing about all but a few present-day managers. Ryan Helsley is striking out 65 percent of batters faced so far – the best among relievers in MLB. And he’s given up one hit in 5.1 innings. Helsley is healthy, and he’s hell on hitters. But once a manager decides on a closer … well, that’s it. Nothing to discuss.

Oli was going to change all of that, remember? He still can. I’m rooting for him.

GOOD SIGNS

– Yadier Molina’s leadoff single to kick off the two-run eighth inning. Molia is still batting .156 but maybe he’s closer to getting up to speed.

– Tyler O’Neill’s two-run single to give the Redbirds a 2–0 lead. His batting .216 with a .314 slug (woof) but has put together two good games in a row. Is this the start of something bigger?

– Paul Goldschmidt in his last four games: 9 for 17 (.529) with a 1.203 OPS.

– Lefty reliever Genesis Cabrera has settled down. In his last three appearances (2.2 innings) he has a strikeout rate of 30 percent, hasn’t allowed a hit or a run and has only walked one.

JUST A STAT BEFORE I GO: Cardinals shortstops are batting .154 on the season with a .504 OPS and a whopping 39 percent strikeout rate. Fan favorite Paul DeJong is hitting .139 with a .540 OPS and 35.7 percent strikeout rate. Edmundo Sosa is hitting .188 with a .423 OPS and 47% strikeout rate. I wonder if Brendan Donovan will get a little time at shortstop.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated and analytical sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the “Bernie Show” podcast at 590thefan.com — the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.

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All stats used here were sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball Net unless otherwise noted.