Bernie’s Redbird Review: Six Surprising Performances That Saved The Sinking Cardinals From An Early Demise.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals are cooling down during the All-Star break after a busy and intense push that took them from nine games under .500 to four games over .500 in a span of two months.

The crew that saved the season includes four rookies and a big bopper. The first-year players have put together a collective WAR that makes the Cardinals sixth in the majors for value provided by rookies. And the bopper has pulled the team’s offense to a respectable level.

Here are my six best surprises of the St. Louis season so far. Some are more surprising than others. And just a little note before I get cranking: Brendan Donovan is not a surprise. He’s having a good season that’s turning into a great season. But he’s been a swell player since coming to the majors in 2022. And how can we label him as a surprise when his current OPS+ (114) is the same as his OPS+ in 2023?

Onward …

SIX FIRST-HALF SURPRISES
PLAYERS WHO HELPED RESCUE
THE REDBIRDS FROM AN EARLY DEMISE

Let’s go!

RYAN FERNANDEZ: Last offseason the Cardinals used the Rule V Draft to pluck Fernandez away from the Red Sox. At the time it was kind of a mystery pick; the righty reliever wasn’t considered anything special in the Boston system. But Chaim Bloom was the Red Sox president of baseball operations for a time, and he knew things. He knew that Fernandez had a wicked slider that could take him places in the major leagues. And fortunately for the Cardinals, that slider took Fernandez from Boston to St. Louis and into the bullpen.

What an amazing find. Fernandez, a 26-year old rookie, has done an exceptional job for a STL team that must have a formidable bullpen to prevail in so many of the close games they play.

Let’s go to the stat feed for some nuggets:

* Among regular bullpen dudes, Fernandez has the team’s best reliever ERA at 2.08.

* It took Fernandez some time to get acclimated, and he had a 3.48 ERA in his first 17 major-league appearances. Nothing foul about that. But once Fernandez got settled in, he’s pitched to an 0.79 ERA in his last 19 emergency calls covering 22 and ⅔ innings.

* Fernandez has worked in 17 games won by the Cardinals this season. And in those victories he has an 0.98 ERA in 18 and ⅓ innings with a 21 percent strikeout rate and high ground-ball rate that has produced three double plays. Fernandez has allowed only one extra base hit, a double, when he appears in a game won by the Cardinals.

* The Fernandez slider is as nasty as touted. He uses the vile pitch 46.2 percent of the time, and has held opponents to a .153 batting average and .222 slug. And the venom in that slider has resulted in a 38.2 percent strikeout rate. The Statcast Run Value for his slider is a superb +10. That happens to be the highest value on a slider among MLB relievers so far this season.

* Based on Win Probability Added, the top two STL relievers are the two Ryans: Helsley and Fernandez.

* Fernandez is a foreboding presence on the Statcast leaderboard. The righthander ranks among the top seven percent in overall pitching run value, the top two percent in breaking ball value, the top two percent in soft contact, the top 11 percent in whiff rate, the top 20 percent in ground-ball rate (49.6%) and the top 35 percent in strikeout rate.

And Fernandez gets high marks for his mustache, but I couldn’t find any data on that over at Statcast.

PEDRO PAGES: Let’s start with defense. As a team the Cardinals have the worst throw-out rate (14%) on steal attempts in the majors. But we can’t blame Pages for that. Willson Contreras has a caught-stealing rate of 12 percent. That’s even lower (7%) for Ivan Herrera. But Pages has a throw-out rate of 28 percent which is safely above the MLB average of 22%.

And while I think that Catcher ERA can be a misleading statistic, I’ll put this on the table for discussion. Here’s the Catcher ERA for the three Cardinals this season:

Pages, 3.72
Contreras, 4.18
Herrera, 4.22

Among the MLB catchers that have been the dish for at least 1,000 plate appearances, Pages’ 3.72 ERA ranks 13th on a list of 52. He’s also among the top 37 percent in pitch-framing rate. He blocks pitches at around the league average. His arm strength (81.9 mph) puts Pages just a smidge outside of the Top 10. I think we can all agree that this rookie has advanced defensive skill. He’s living up to the reputation he established in the minors, and shows no signs of being a wide-eyed, nervous rookie. Pages could be the fourth Molina brother.

If you look at his basic hitting performance in his 100 plate appearances, Pages is 30 percent below league average offensively per wRC+. He has a .213/.273/.326 slash line. But look closer and see how well Pages has done in big spots. Sure, we’re talking about a sliver of a sample size, but it’s still impressive.

Hitting with runners in scoring position: 7 for 21 (.331), a .571 slugging percentage with a home run, two doubles and 13 runs batted in. And in high-leverage spots, Pages is 4 for 6 (.667) with two doubles and seven RBIs. Think about this for a moment: in only six high-leverage at-bats, Pages has as many RBIs as Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. But Pages got his seven high-leverage RBIs in only six at-bats. Goldy got his seven RBIs in 37 at-bats. Arenado produced his seven high-leverage RBIs in 32 at-bats.

Pages became a fan favorite during the weekend series at Wrigley Field on June 14-16. He homered Friday to propel the Redbirds to a 3-0 win. He hit a two-run bomb in the Sunday game to air lift the Cardinals to a 2-1 victory and series win.

The big fella has been a captivating surprise. And the Cardinals did the right thing in keeping Pages as their second catcher instead of Herrera, who was sent to Triple A Memphis after returning from the IL.

MICHAEL SIANI: Oh, what to do in center field? Tommy Edman had wrist surgery and wasn’t able to go at the start of the season. (He’s getting closer.) Dylan Carlson was injured near the end of spring training and went on the IL. The Cardinals tried rookie Victor Scott in center but he wasn’t ready for the majors after making the leap from Class AA ball. The Cards could have turned to Lars Nootbaar to play some center but he missed 43 days with two separate injuries. What’s next? What’s Magneuris Sierra doing these days? What about Adron Chambers?

Manager Oli Marmol turned to Siani, a former fourth-round draft choice of the Reds who was claimed by the Cardinals on waivers last September.

Siani has been a valuable solution to a bothersome problem. I laugh at the people out there who want to see Siani banished to Class A or sold to a team in South Korea because he isn’t much of a hitter. Excuse me? Weren’t you the same folks who used to whine about this team’s horrendous outfield defense? Do you remember that the Cardinals got around to Siani only after several other center-field candidates either got hurt or batted .085?

Siani has been saving runs and preventing disasters for grateful St. Louis pitchers since moving into the lineup. If he’s such a liability because of his marginal offense, then why are the Cardinals 36-29 when Siani starts a game? And overall they’re 49-38 when Siani plays; when he doesn’t start (against lefty pitchers) he’s ready to roll as a defensive replacement.

Siani is tied for second overall (any position) in the majors with 13 outs above average. That also puts him in a tie for first with Washington’s Jacob Young among MLB center fielders. Siani has a 40 percent success rate – tops in the majors – when attempting to make the most difficult type of catch … a five-star catch.

Siani also has a plus rating in Outs Above Average for every directional navigation. He’s way above average going back on balls, and coming on balls, or rushing to his right, or sprinting to his left.

Based on where the ball is hit and how fast it travels, Statcast has given Siani a catch probability of 87 percent. He’s exceeded that. He’s chased down the ball for an out at a rate of 96 percent. That 9% success-added rate is the best by a major-league outfielder.

Siani can do a few things offensively. He’s sharp in the small-ball skills. He leads the Cardinals with 10 stolen bases. He leads them with nine sac bunts. His productive-out percentage (62.5%) is best on the team among Cardinals that have had more than one opportunity to move a runner over. His left-handed swing lacks power but he’s hit a respectable .258 against right-handed pitchers.

The surprising Siani isn’t going anywhere when Edman returns. You’ll still see him start games against RH pitching and he’ll routinely come off the bench to patrol center field when the Cardinals have leads to protect late in the game.

ALEC BURLESON: Boppa! I took some heat over the previous two seasons for repeatedly stating my opinion that Burly had what’s necessary to be a very good major-league hitter – and that was only a matter of time. When you have his excellent bat-to-ball skills, success is inevitable. Much of that comes with experience and an increased base of knowledge on MLB pitchers. It’s come together for Burleson in 2024.

I’m not surprised by his improvement. I must say that I am surprised by his sudden game-changing power. I did not think I’d see Burleson at the All-Star break, leading the Cardinals in batting average (.288), slugging percentage (.494), runs batted in (53), OPS (.814) and a wRC+ that’s 28 percent above a league-average hitter.

Burleson is also tied with Nolan Gorman for the team lead in homers (17.) But there is a minor difference between them. Burleson has struck out only 46 times this season for a strikeout rate of 13.5 percent. Gorman has struck out 129 times (already!) for a strikeout rate of 37.5 percent.

Since June 12, Burly leads National League hitters with 35 RBIs and is tied for second with 12 homers while batting .301. Over his 40 games since June 12 he’s also tied for fifth in the NL in slugging (.583), and his wRC+ (154) ties him with Christian Yelich and Austin Riley for 14th among NL batsmen.

MASYN WINN: I was absolutely confident in his talent and maturity and intelligence and figured he’d make the best of his brief initiation into the majors with 37 games for the Cards late last season. Though I had no significant doubts about anything Winn does, his acceleration into becoming an outstanding all-around player happened quite quickly. I’m surprised by how easy Winn makes it look. How can such a young hitter (age 22) be so comfortably confident at two-strike hitting? How can he be so advanced in his ability to read situations and react accordingly? Winn is really something.

Winn leads NL rookies in the Baseball Reference version of total WAR. He’s also No. 1 among NL rookies in both offensive WAR and defensive WAR and is tied for first in BaseRunning Runs. Winn has the best batting average (.284) by an NL rookie and is in the top five in onbase percentage, slugging, OPS+ and total bases.

Winn’s defense has already entered special territory; he’s second in the majors (all players, all position) with 14 defensive runs saved. And his +14 defensive runs saved is best among major-league shortstops. Moreover, Winn is second among MLB shortstops in fielding range and is rated the best in the game for his double-play value. He’s instant entertainment.

ANDRE PALLANTE: When it looked like the Cardinals were planning to give Pallante a shot at filling the fifth-starter vacancy, I didn’t think it was a bad idea. I remembered that Pallante had a solid 3.58 ERA in 10 starts as a rookie for the Cards in 2022. And he was a successful starter for his collegiate team. The Cardinals miscast him as a reliever. Pallante did well in that role in 2022, but right-handed MLB hitters took him apart in 2023. It was back to the minors. And it was back to the minors again early this season after Pallante was bludgeoned for a 6.30 ERA as a reliever-pinata. The Cardinals finally went back to Pallante as a starter, and there’s no reason to cuss over his work so far. He’s had three below-average starts — but then again, so have Miles Mikolas, Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. In his eight starts Pallante has checked in with a 3.70 ERA, and he has the best earned-run average by a Cardinals’ starter (2.41) since June 26. He still has trouble fending off right-handed batters; they’ve walloped him pretty hard. But he’s made some progress there. The Cards are 5-3 in Pallante’s starts this season, and that’s a fine showing under the circumstances.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.