Bernie’s Redbird Review: Something Is Going On With Cardinals Third Baseman Nolan Arenado …

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

OK, I’m going full Statboy Nerd here, so please have patience with me.

There’s an intriguing development going on with Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado and I have to wonder what it could mean for his offensive performance.

I talked about this topic in my YouTube video published Thursday morning, and I felt this would be a good way to expand on it.

I became aware of a changing Arenado trend after reading a notes column written by the esteemed Eno Sarris. Eno is one of many reasons you should subscribe to The Athletic.

Here’s what he wrote:

“It hasn’t shown up in the splits yet, but Arenado is doing something a little differently recently. Only two qualified batters have increased their bat speed more in the last month compared to the first couple months of the season than Arenado. Swinging harder has worked well for others in the top 15, like Jarren Duran (whose slugging percentage keeps rising), Bryson Stott (at least lately) and Luis Garcia Jr. (who has been slugging over .600 since July 1), and it also seems to have singled a return to health for Yordan Alvarez and Manny Machado. Maybe Arenado can still salvage some of his season when the Cardinals need it most.”

Motivated by Sarris, I went searching for clues. The quicker bat speed should help Arenado, but I wanted to learn more about it.

It’s too soon to predict the lasting impact on ‘Nado’s overall hitting. And gosh forbid that I do some false-narrative wishcasting here. But I do find this stuff interesting … and it’s new … and it applies to a very important hitter for the Cardinals.

So let’s give it a look.

Here are three metrics, listed left to right, covering the Arenado’s trend before the All-Star break and comparing it to Arenado’s trend since the All-Star break:

Bat speed: 70.2 mph … up to 73.2 mph
Avg. exit velocity: 85.9 mph … to 89.6 mph
Hard-hit rate: 29.6% … to 40.4%

That’s actually a bigger jump than I expected to see before diving into the Statcast digits. Arenado’s increase in hard-hit rate is substantial. And consistently hard contact does make a difference in most cases. It’s also true that hard-contact balls in play can be tracked down and captured by fielders. So luck is almost always a factor.

As Sarris noted, it’s too soon to make conclusions, but the faster bat seems to be making a difference.

Arenado had an official, non-adjusted .381 slugging percentage before the All-Star break; that official, non-adjusted slug is .433 in the second half.

In studying the game-by-game breakdown of Arenado’s bat speed since early June, I could see the improvement.

This stat does an excellent job of displaying the big change in Arenado’s bat speed:

> In his first 74 games of the season, Arenado had a bat speed of 71 mph or higher in 31 percent of the games.

> In his last 28 games, Arenado has averaged 71 mph or higher in 82 percent of the games.

That’s a large, large difference that appears to be paying off.

In 114 plate appearances beginning July 5, Arenado had batted .302 with a .351 onbase percentage and .453 slugging percentage through Wednesday. That’s an .804 OPS. There have been four homers during that time – no big deal — but he’s obviously doing better.

Now, then. Since I’m a Stat Nerd, I can’t help myself. But I think this is a good find, and I’ll share it. (If you’re bored, I understand. But please read it!)

I wanted to see how the enhanced bat speed impacted Arenado’s performance against high-velocity four-seam fastballs thrown 94 miles per hour or higher …

Once again, a before and after … before the All-Star break and after the break.

Bat speed: 68.3 mph … 71.5 mph
Avg. exit velocity: 84.8 mph … to 92.2 mph
Hard-hit rate: 19.6% … to 63.6%

Are you kidding me? Look at that preposterous difference in his hard–contact rate again. Up by 44 percent? Whoa. I triple-checked this, and unless Statcast is trying to mess with my head and make a nimrod out of me, these are the correct numbers.

On those high-velo four-seam fastballs, Arenado had a .308 slugging percentage on competitive swings before the break … and now a .583 slug on competitive swings after the break. His Isolated Power number was an awful .046 on high-velo pitches before the break, and it’s .250 after the break. His barrel rate is up. His slugging percentage on pulled pitches is up. This is good.

(What’s a competitive swing? No check swings, no bunts, no losing balance after being fooled by a pitcher. Stuff like that.)

There hasn’t been a home-run barrage from Arenado, but let’s wait and see what happens.

Am I wishcasting here? No, I am not.

Wishcasting isn’t based on statistical realities. But when the cold, hard and actual facts present new evidence, it would be stupid to dismiss it.

Thanks to Eno Sarris for making us aware of Arenado’s recalibrated swing.

Thanks for reading …

-Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.