Bernie’s Redbird Review: Sorting Through Some Familiar Criticisms Of Cardinals Manager Oli Marmol.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Hello, again. Hope you’re having a fine day and are gearing up for a fun and relaxing weekend.

Let’s begin …

PRELIMINARIES: The Cardinals return to the field of play Friday, opening a three-game series against the Seattle Mariners at Busch Stadium. There was a minor change on the off day; the Cards picked up a little ground in the dash for the No. 3 wild-card spot. The Redbirds are five out with 22 games to go. But their playoff odds improved by a smidge, and FanGraphs gives them a 1.4 percent probability of crashing the postseason tournament. There’s your progress report.

Now I want to get into some stuff based on feedback from readers, Tweeters, video watchers, friends, fans, big fans, non-fans, etc. I’m talking about certain assumptions or perceptions that are out there.

I’ll just lead each category with a synopsis of the complaint. And then I’ll do the thing I do – which is look at each grumble and see if any of it is supported by the facts.

OLI MARMOL IS TERRIBLE AT BULLPEN MANAGEMENT

One gentleman recently informed me of something: manager Marmol has cost the Cardinals 15 games this year with his awful handling of the bullpen. Is that right? The Cardinals are 71-69 this season. So if Marmol cost them 15 games with bullpen-related incompetence, it means the Redbirds would be soaring at 86-54 for a .614 winning percentage that would rank No. 1 in the majors.

Does any person of sound mind believe that?

OK, let’s get back to the real world and inspect the facts.

Going into the weekend, here’s where the St. Louis bullpen ranks in the majors in the most relevant categories.

– 6th in ERA, 3.69

– 8th in fielding-independent ERA, 3.66

– 9th for the lowest home-run rate against

– 8th overall (4th in NL) for Win Probability Added

– 7th in bullpen shutdowns

– 1st in saves

– 11th in save percentage

– 4th in holds

– 8th best ERA in high-leverage situations.

– 8th best ERA when pitching with runners in scoring position.

I wish the Cardinal relievers (as a group) had a higher strikeout rate, but they make up for it (to an extent) with the third-best ground ball rate by a MLB bullpen. They also overcome the a below-average strikeout punch by pitching well under pressure. Besides, I don’t think the manager has anything to do with a reliever’s ability to strike out hitters. That’s a roster-composition matter, which is handled by the front office.

This season the Cardinals …

+ Have a 55-3 record when leading through seven innings for a .948 winning percentage that ranks 3rd in the NL and 6th in the majors.

+ Have a 57-1 record when leading through eight innings for a .983 winning percentage that’s tied for 3rd in MLB. Ryan Helsley is obviously an esteemed closer that makes that stat hold up. But if you’ll recall, Marmol and Helsley sat down and came up with a plan that would keep the right-hander reasonably fresh and strong all season. That plan has worked; it’s been a positive adjustment that has Helsey leading the majors in saves even though the team ranks 15th overall in wins.

+ The Cardinals have a 26-18 record in one-run games for a .590 winning percentage that ranks 4th in the majors and 3rd in the NL. They would not be winning such a large share of one-run games with a bullpen that’s supposedly been screwed up by the manager. Good grief.

This is a Top 10 major-league bullpen, and virtually every fact confirms that. And please forgive me for relying on facts. I could save just a lot of time by going with hot-take stupidity that’s based on nothing but gaseous emissions. If this manager was such a bumbling idiot at running a bullpen, then why do the 2024 Cardinals have such a terrific bullpen?

Marmol has done an effective job of cultivating depth by having confidence in Ryan Fernandez, a previously untested rookie who has played an important role in building the bridge that leads to Helsley in the 9th.

The Cardinals are getting excellent relief work from Matthew Liberatore, who has a 2.25 ERA in his last 15 appearances. (And that includes bad-luck, batted-ball strangeness at Yankee Stadium that led to four runs being charged to Libby’s account.) Otherwise, Liberatore has allowed one run in his other 14 relief gigs since Aug. 2.

THE CARDINALS CAN’T PLAY SMALL BALL

Oh. Here we go. This again. OK, let’s review the merits of the latest filing of a small-ball indictment. Here’s where the Cardinals rank among MLB teams in the pertinent categories …

* Extra-bases taken as runners: 2nd

* Extra-bases taken percentage: tied for 8th

* Sacrifice bunts: 6th

* Sac flies: 7th

* 1st to 3rd on a single: 7th

* Scoring from 2nd on a single: 9th

* Scoring from 1st on a double: 10th

* Scoring from 2nd on a single: 15th

* Productive-outs percentage: 28%, league average.

That looks like some fine small-balling to me.

The Cardinals don’t swipe a lot of bases, ranking 22nd with 79 steals. But part of that can be attributed to their below-average success rate of 77 percent. That’s actually pretty good by previous standards, but the rules changes have made it easier to steal, and the overall league average for success is 79 percent.

And some fellers are better at stealing bases than others. Michael Siani is the best, grabbing 15 bags in 18 attempts (83.3%). Masyn Winn has 10 steals but has been nabbed five times. His success rate of 66.6% is way below league average. Victor Scott is 5 for 5, and I think he should have gotten more opportunities to take off.

Some Cardinals just have a sharp instinct for when to go. Paul Goldschmidt, Willson Contreras and Nolan Gorman have combined for 24 steals in 26 attempts for a superb success rate of 92.3%. And Alec Burleson has, believe it or not, is 9 for 12 in steal attempts (75%). Lars Notbaar has been thrown out once in eight tries, but concerns over more injuries probably leads to more caution.

I think the Cardinals could be more aggressive about stealing bases. But I don’t see a reason to run into outs by making poor decisions on when to take off.

The stolen-base debate aside, it’s inaccurate to say the Cardinals fail to play small ball. They play small ball, and they’re good at it.

MARMOL PULLS STARTING PITCHERS TOO SOON

The St. Louis rotation ranks 9th in the majors for innings pitched. As a group the Cards starters average 5.4 innings per assignment, ranking 4th in the NL and tied for 6th overall. That’s my first response on the subject.

Next, take a look at this and then tell me if you still believe Marmol is too quick to replace starters. The Cardinal starters have a 5.89 ERA when facing the opposing team lineup for the third time in a game. That ranks 19th. And the STL starters aren’t so good when going against the lineup for the second time in a game, ranking 24th with a 4.67 ERA. Notice a trend here? Maybe this is more about the quality of the starting pitchers employed by the Cardinals?

If you want to see more length in starts, consider this. Here are the individual earned-run averages when taking on a lineup for a third time in a game:

• Andre Pallante, 3.45
• Kyle Gibson, 5.09
• Miles Mikolas, 6.62
• Lance Lynn, 7.85

Once again, we see an example of Pallante’s value. Newcomer Erick Fedde has a 2.45 ERA on the third-time-through, but that’s based on only seven innings.

And for everyone who bellyaches about Marmol removing a starter too soon, there are just as many critics screeching over the manager leaving his starters in the game for too long.

My friends, here’s the bottom line: this isn’t a good rotation. Period. There is only so much you can do with this bunch.

THE CARDINALS PULL LINEUPS OUT OF A HAT
MARMOL SHOULD GO WITH A SET LINEUP

I’m sorry, did you think that major-league baseball teams are playing the game with set lineups that don’t change unless a batter is out with an injury, has a scheduled day off, or is pulled for a pinch runner or something? If that’s what you believe, then please tell 1968 I said hello.

The Cardinals have used 114 different batting orders this season. Seven National League teams have used more. And the Dodgers have used fewer batting orders, but their 111 different lineups are right there with the Cardinals.

To repeat, Marmol has used 114 different batting orders this season.

As Cardinals manager, Tony La Russa took nine teams to the postseason. Those nine teams averaged 126 different lineup combinations including 138 in 2005, and 136 in 2000, and 131 in 2006.

In Whitey Herzog’s only World Series title season here (1982) he used 102 different lineups. That’s less than 114, sure. But come on. There isn’t much difference there. Herzog did use a lot fewer lineups when the Cardinals won their other two NL pennants in 1985 and 1987. That’s because this Hall of Fame manager always knew what was best for his Redbirds.

MARMOL USES TOO MANY MATCHUPS
STOP PLATOONING!

One example of a platoon-split advantage is a manager using more right-handed hitters in his lineup when his team is facing lefty pitchers. Or vice versa: left-handed hitters vs. righty pitchers. This applies to in-game relievers and pinch hitters and all of that.

== This season the Cardinals have gone with a platoon-split advantage in 52 percent of their plate appearances. That’s 18th in the majors.

==  La Russa led the Cardinals to NL pennants in 2004, 2006 and 2011. The three teams, collectively, had a platoon-split advantage in 51 percent of their plate appearances. Virtually the same percentage that the Cardinals have gone with in 2024.

== And if platoon-split advantages are such a dumb thing, I wish someone would have informed Mr. Herzog about that. His three St. Louis pennant winners had an average platoon-split advantage in 78 percent of their plate appearances.

== I grew up in Baltimore, learning a helluva lot about baseball by watching how Earl Weaver ran his team. The Orioles made the World Series for three straight years – 1969 through 1971 – and all three teams won more than 100 games. The Earl of Baltimore had the platoon-split advantage in operation 51 percent of the time. And with his 1979 American League champion squad, Earl went platoon crazy by getting the platoon split advantage 68 percent of the time.

== During an epic run of winning baseball in the 1940s, the St. Louis won four NL pennants and three World Series titles between 1942 and 1946. The iconic Cardinal teams had an average platoon-split advantage of 55.3 percent across the four seasons.

This is why I’m confused by so much hollering over basic baseball principles. Managers are going to use a lot of different lineups. They’re going to search for matchup advantages. This has been going on for decades and decades.

So why in the heck are so many people outraged to see any manager implementing a similar approach in 2024? Why would a manager pass up a chance to get a better matchup for his hitters?

Here’s a thought: the Cardinals need better hitters. More good dudes. That would help prevent so many fans from going bananas over normal lineup machinations that have been in place through history.

The bleeping 1927 Yankees had the platoon-split going in 55.3 percent of their plate appearances. What were they possibly thinking? Dammit, someone should have fired Miller Huggins.

More good dudes in the lineup … less whining about the lineup.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.