Bernie’s Redbird Review: The 2-3-4 Lineup Spots Are Clicking, But Don’t Forget The Other Guys

Welcome to The Redbird Review

Cardinals manager Mike Shildt altered his lineup on Aug. 22, putting Tyler O’Neill in the No. 3 spot, tucked between Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.

With O’Neill out of the lineup with a minor issue, the plan was interrupted for a few days, but Shildt has gone with the Goldy, O’Neill and Arenado alignment on a regular basis since Aug. 27.

And the change has worked; the Cardinals have gone 16-7 since Aug. 27. And over that time their offense has averaged 5.2 runs per game and is third in the NL in slugging (.467) and OPS (.787.) The team’s home-run rate is booming at 1.5 per nine innings over the last 23 games.

But it’s simplistic to attribute the improvement to the lineup switch and the collective performance of the 2-3-4 hitters. There are a couple of other reasons for the rise of the offense that I’ll get to in a couple of minutes.

First: during the team’s 16-7 run here’s what Goldschmidt, O’Neill and Arenado have done as a combined unit:

–.303 average
–.380 onbase percentage
–.607 slugging percentage
–.987 OPS
–74 hits
–30 walks
–19 homers
–49 RBI
–56 runs

That’s profound. O’Neill is tied for the NL lead in runs scored (21) since Aug. 27. Goldschmidt, O’Neill and Arenado all rank among the league’s top 18 hitters in RBI and are all in the top 21 in homers since that date.

When compared to the rest of the NL, the Cardinals’ 2-3-4 spots are first in runs, second in homers and third in RBI and slugging. They’re also fourth in OBP and batting average. Other Cardinals have taken at-bats in those spots since Aug. 27, so the production isn’t the exclusive work of the three stars. But this new batting order is definitely clicking.

But as I indicated earlier, there’s much more to the enlivened offense than what we’ve seen from Goldy, O’Neill and Arenado. Sure, a huge source of productivity and excitement. The Cardinals are thriving with the impact being provided by the three on a consistent basis.

Here’s the thing: the fifth, sixth, seven and eighth lineup spots have combined to turn in an outstanding set of numbers since Aug. 27. Numbers, frankly, that overwhelm other sections of the lineup including the 2-3-4 slots. And when we talk about the 5-6-7-8 spots, the primary names are Yadier Molina, Dylan Carlson, Edmundo Sosa and Harrion Bader.

Start with this … and I had to double-check this to make sure my eyes were working properly:

Since Aug. 27, the No. 5 through No. 8 lineup pegs have collectively walloped pitching for a .383 batting average with runners in scoring position. Yes, .383! And it gets better: with RISP the 5-6-7-8 row has a .432 OBP, .716 slug and 1.148 OPS. Their bashing with runners in scoring position includes five homers, eight doubles, two triples, and 46 RBI — and all of this in only 95 plate appearances with men in scoring position over the last 23 games. That is simply spectacular.

— Batting fifth or sixth, Molina and Carlson have combined for 19 RBI and 17 runs scored with runners in scoring position over the last 23 games.

— Sosa, the usual No. 7 hitter, has a .583 average, nine RBI and eight runs with RISP since Aug. 27.

— Bader, the resident No. 8 bat, has done heavy damage with RISP over this time, batting .389 with nine RBI and five runs.

Goldschmidt, O’Neill and Arenado have done a good job hitting with runners in scoring position since Aug. 27, combining for a .265 average, two homers, 21 RBI, a few doubles, and 30 runs. But in fairness, their combined RISP output hasn’t come close to the amazing RISP stats collectively put up by Molina, Carlson, Sosa and Bader.

Overall, in all plate appearances, the 5-6-7-8 spots have a more normal look statistically: .263 average, .312 OBP, .445 slug, .757 OPS. That’s normal in the context of what they’ve done with runners in scoring position.

But when we look at the overall performance and make the comparison to the other 5-6-7-8 units in the NL, the Cardinals’ delegation ranks first in RBI (56), second in average, third in slugging and fourth in OPS.

The punishing production from the lower lineup spots is the driving force behind the team’s overall .293 average with runners in scoring position that leads the NL since Aug. 27.

Salute to Goldy, and Bro’Neill, and Nado for what they’re doing for this team in a variety of ways.

But don’t forget the other guys, who are keeping the lineup moving and prospering from top to bottom. The way the Cardinals have been swinging the bats lately, this is a true example of a deep lineup.

BIRD BYTES:

1) Leadoff hitter Tommy Edman was terrific in July and August, batting .278 with a .340 OBP and .460 slug for a .800 OPS. He also batted .353 with runners in scoring position and struck out only 7.7 percent of the time overall.

2) But so far in September, Edman has a .256 average, .279 OBP, .366 slug and a .645 OPS. He’s hitting .167 with runners in scoring position and has an overall strikeout rate of 24.4% this month — and a 30% strikeout rate with RISP. I thought it was worth pointing out.

3) A note about Edmundo Sosa and his performance on offense since Aug. 1: using only his 104 plate appearances as a shortstop, which makes for the most relevant comparison to other MLB shortstops, Sosa leads the position with a .352 average .408 OBP and .979 OPS and is second in slugging (.571) to Trevor Story. (That’s based on a minimum 100 PA by shortstops since Aug. 1.) Sosa is ridiculously good.

4) Adam Wainwright, Jon Lester and J.A. Happ have combined for 515 career wins in regular-season MLB pitching. Goodness.

5) Lester’s 200 wins since 2006 are the most by a MLB lefthander, ahead of Clayton Kershaw (185) and CC Sabathia (182.) But Lester had a head start on the others. Still, even if we take it from the start of the 2008 season Lester’s 189 wins are still No. 1 among lefties, with Kershaw next.

6) The Cardinals have won nine in a row and are 11-1 in their last 12. Their 13-6 record in September is second in the NL, with only the Dodgers doing slightly better at 13-5.

7) Since Aug. 6, the NL’s three best records belong to the Dodgers (31-10), Giants (28-13) and Cardinals (27-14.)

8) If the Cardinals can win Tuesday’s game at Milwaukee, they’ll have a 10-game winning streak. And no Cardinal team has done that since the 2001 Cardinals rolled to 11 straight wins from Aug. 9 through Aug. 19 of that year.

9) According to FanGraphs, the Cardinals have a 79.1 percent chance of winning the No. 2 wild-card spot, ahead of Cincinnati (14.9%), San Diego (3.6%), and Philadelphia (1.6%)

10) On Aug. 5, the Cardinals’ wild-card probability stood at 1.1 percent, with the Padres at 70.6% and the Reds at 19.2%.

Things have changed a little, eh?

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the “Bernie Show” podcast at 590thefan.com — the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.

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* All stats used here are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball Net unless otherwise noted.