Trade or no trade, I’m done making predictions about the fate of Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado. And even if there is a deal in place to relocate Arenado to a new home, I’m not sure when this transaction would materialize.
Before, during or after spring training? During the regular season? At an earlier point of the 162-game schedule, or at the late-summer trade deadline? And there’s Arenado’s famous no-trade clause, which mucks up any attempt at forecasting the future.
Here’s the premise for today’s column: if the Cardinal-Arenado relationship continues, what’s the best-case scenario for a good experience? What can Arenado do to really make it work? How should we set the expectations?
There’s one condition to all of this … I’m not using his salary obligations as a factor. He’ll get paid the $64 million by the Cardinals, another team – or maybe the cost will be shared by the Cardinals and the team that acquires him. This isn’t about whether he’s worth the money. It’s about his value as a player based on performance … and not the paycheck.
My sole purpose in this exercise is to focus on ways that Arenado’s time with St. Louis could turn out better than anticipated. Part of this – for me – is adjusting my perceptions. But part of that is up to him, too.
And away we go …
1. Recognize that Arenado is a better player than we realize.
So much of the attention has zoomed in on Arenado’s decline offensively. Which is a real thing. Arenado isn’t the power hitter that we saw for most of his career. He had career lows in slugging percentage (.394) and home runs (16) last season. That wasn’t an aberration. Other than spiking to a career-best 151 OPS+ in 2022, Arenado’s overall offense has been in a recession. Especially his Isolated Power number (.123) which was 118 points lower than his career rate coming into 2024.
I think it’s important to view this with a sharper perspective. Last season Arenado’s offense still came in above the league-average level among third basemen. Here’s what I’m talking about, and I excluded his designated-hitter stats because they aren’t relevant when comparing his offense to the industry standard for third basemen. I’ll also work in the defensive performance metrics. And later on I’ll include an assessment on his overall value assessment.
Anyway …
+ Arenado’s batting average as a third baseman (.277) was 36 points higher than the overall league average at the spot. His onbase percentage (.329) was 25 points higher than the rate for third basemen. His slugging percentage (.403) when used at third base was 15 points above the league rate at 3B. His OPS (.733) was 41 points higher than the yardstick at the position. Last season major-league third basemen collectively performed five percent below league average in park-and-league adjusted runs created (wRC+) Arenado was 11 percent above the offensive standard at the hot spot in 2024.
+ Arenado will be 34 in the coming season. Dan Szymborski, the creator of the popular ZiPS forecast, listed the top three historical hitting comps (at third base) for Arenado at age 34: Bill Madlock, Mike Lowell and Brooks Robinson. I looked up their offensive stats at age 34. And I was pleasantly surprised by what I saw. All were above league average offensively – especially Robinson (13%) and Madlock (12%.) I think the Cardinals would be happy with something like that from Arenado in ‘25 if he’s still part of their crew.
+ Arenado’s defense isn’t at the platinum level but it’s still damn good. He was a National League Gold Glove finalist at third base last season. His range rating was No. 3 among MLB third basemen. His six defensive runs saved were tied for fifth most at 3B.
2. Take a closer look at Arenado’s total value as a player. It’s important to see him as a positive for the 2025 Cardinals.
Last season FanGraphs assessed Arenado’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) at 3.1 wins. But if we subtract his minor but dreadful performance as a DH or pinch hitter, Arenado had 3.4 WAR as third baseman. That was a fine sixth in the majors at 3B behind Jose Ramirez, Matt Chapman, Alex Bregman, Eugenio Suarez and Rafael Devers.
The final word on this goes to Szymborski, who posed this question: “Might Arenado actually be underrated at this point? While his offensive production has come down quite a bit from its peak, his 149 wRC+ in 2022 was likely always a late-era outlier, and his 102 wRC+ is hardly lousy for a third baseman. He’s no longer a star without a resurgence at the plate, but he was at least a good player in 2024, amassing 3.1 WAR thanks to very good defense at the hot corner. I think the perception of Arenado’s 2024 might be a lot worse than his season actually was.”
Barring a total collapse as a hitter, Arenado would make the Cardinals a better team in 2025. Understand that the Cardinals really aren’t doing a real reset, because they don’t have the guts to REALLY have a true reset. Arenado would likely be an asset in ‘25 as long as he provides league-average offense – or slightly better than that.
If Arenado stays parked in STL, Nolan Gorman can still get his 600 plate appearances without playing much if any third base in 2025. He’ll go back to second base and probably see a lot more time at DH. That could mean fewer DH at-bats for Alec Burleson. But if manager Oli Marmol can’t figure out a way to smartly distribute at-bats, then I don’t know what to say. This supposed “reset” requires good dexterity from the manager.
3. Can Arenado restore some of his power? If so, that would certainly fit the best-case scenario presented here.
Arenado has worked feverishly this offseason to increase his bat speed. If he can turn on more fastballs and tap into his pull-side power more consistently, I don’t see why he couldn’t go from clubbing 16 homers (last year) to more than 20 in 2025. FYI, only eight major-league third basemen hit 20+ homers in 2024.
Do you think I’m being overly optimistic? I don’t think so.
Arenado got to work on this bat-speed project last season and posted his fastest bat-speed clockings in July and August. Over the two months with the quicker swing he batted .286, slugged .442 and performed 18 percent above league average offensively. That’s why I say improvement is possible. I saw it.
4. Arenado should be highly motivated, even more than usual, and that should help him and the Redbirds.
If he’s a Cardinal (or not) Arenado has to show up with an attitude. There hasn’t been much interest in him this offseason, with most teams doing nothing more than chuckling or yawning over the possibility of acquiring Arenado. This should make Arenado angry – in a good way – because he’s a competitor with immense pride and he’s been largely written off. If Arenado can channel his indignation the right way, he’ll deliver some payback. Which would be beneficial for the Cardinals.
And if Arenado (privately) hopes to draw significant interest from contenders who might want to acquire him before the 2025 trade deadline, the man on a mission persona would increase his appeal.
5. Arenado can alter a narrative by showing up in Jupiter with a fresh personality that I’m calling “Uncle Nado.”
Yes, Arenado absolutely must become Uncle Nado. Correctly or not, he’s developed a reputation for being grouchy and aloof and not much interested in reaching out to the youngbloods on the team. For example, Arenado shouldn’t be snapping at a youthful teammate who offers him a high-five after he makes a good play. (“We don’t do that here.”) Arenado gets frustrated when he isn’t hitting and/or the Cardinals aren’t winning – which is fine, because it’s human to be displeased and disappointed during difficult times. But he can’t deal with this by jogging slowly down the line after hitting a ground ball. He has a responsibility to run out ground balls to set an example for young guys who are watching him closely. That stuff is bad for a team’s culture.
If Uncle Nado plays ball for the Cardinals this year, he has to loosen up around the “kids.” He’ll have to try and have more fun and laugh at the goofball (but harmless) stuff that young players like to do in the dugout or in the clubhouse. Uncle Nado would want to engage teammates and be part of the gang. He’d have to be more proactive reaching out to young players to impart advice or emotional support. As a hockey player would say, Uncle Nado would make a difference in the room. His positive energy would delight the baseball family. And he might actually enjoy being one of the boys instead of being the “get off my lawn!” type who complains about the behavior of these kids today.
Uncle Nado would create smiles and laughs and change perceptions. In a best-case scenario, the 2025 Cardinals must have a happier, more unified and energy-infused clubhouse. Uncle Nado can make that possible. So enough already with the Les Miserables routine.
Thank you for reading …
–Bernie
For the last 36 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.