Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Biggest First-Half Disappointment? Goldschmidt + Arenado.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Here’s Part II of my look at the 2024 Cardinals as they near their 81st game and the halfway mark of the regular-season schedule.

In my first piece of the series, I chose rookie shortstop Masyn Winn as the team’s first-half MVP. It was an obvious choice, and I enjoyed writing about all that he’s done this season.

The second installment isn’t as fun for me to write. I have immense respect for Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado and their career achievements. My purpose here isn’t to do a rip job. I’m not hunting for clicks and reader engagements. But any review of a season’s first half would include a number of things: the good, the bad, the disappointing, the surprises, and the questions going forward.

Let’s continue …

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT

The aging duo of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. It’s not their fault; it’s just baseball. Reality is unpleasant and undefeated. Time always wins. Both guys have reached the reduced-impact stage of their careers.

It happens to the best of them. But this happened rather quickly, and that’s the only thing that surprises me. And I’m not saying that Goldschmidt and Arenado are burnt pie and can’t help the team the rest of the way. Of course they can help the team win games. But as I’ve been saying for a while now, it’s important to adjust our expectations and understand that the big years are gone.

There’s a tendency around here to do some wishcasting and hold onto a fantasy: Goldschmdt and Arenado will bounce back in a profound way. Wouldn’t that be nice? Speaking for myself, my level-headed hope is to see Goldschmidt and Arenado put together some hot streaks – separately, individually, whatever – to lift the Cardinals to some wins, especially when other hitters have gone dormant.

That can happen … because it already has happened.

During the Cardinals’ 25-13 run through Monday’s win over Atlanta, Goldy started all but one game. And over 165 plate appearances he batted .268 with a .321 onbase percentage, .464 slugging percentage and a .785 OPS. All of those numbers are above the overall MLB average for 2024. If Goldy can keep that up, there will be no complaints about his season in this corner.

Goldschmidt is capable of supplying solid, respectable, above-average offense. It just won’t be close to his peak-form level. And given his trajectory since winning the NL MVP award in 2022, why would we expect the best version of Goldschmidt to produce at a high level over an extended period of time? If the classy first baseman can put in positive pieces on a fairly regular basis, that would be acceptable.

Arenado appears to be in a tougher spot. During the team’s 25-13 streak he batted .242 with a .292 OBP and .371 slug for a .665 OPS. Over that time ‘Nado has four homers and four doubles in 136 plate appearances. And he’s banged up with injuries to his right elbow and left forearm.

Arenado may summon short-burst periods of power, then sputter again. The cycle could go on like this all season. In his last 10 games, Arenado hit for average (.316) and had a fine onbase rate (.357) but didn’t generate much wallop.

Arenado’s June numbers are bleak: 76 plate appearances, one homer, six RBIs and a .348 slug. June has traditionally been a strong month for the third baseman; until this year his career slugging percentage in June was .554.

It’s healthy for us to understand what they can and cannot do. Goldy will be 37 in September. Arenado turned 33 in April. Two years ago, Goldschmidt won the NL MVP award and Arenado finished third. But we’ve let go of that. They aren’t the same hitters now.

Here’s a comparison of their composite slash lines in 2022, and now 2024:

Goldy-Arenado combined in 2022: .305 average, .381 onbase percentage, .555 slugging percentage, .936 OPS, and a home run every 17.2 at-bats. The two were collectively 64 percent above league average offensively based on OPS+

Goldy-Arenado combined in 2024: .243 average, .307 onbase percentage, .400 slugging percentage, .707 OPS, and a home run every 35.4 at-bats. This season they’re collectively nine percent below the league average offensively based on OPS+.

Here’s how far the 2024 numbers have fallen in each category from 2022:

Batting average: down 62 points.
Onbase percentage: down 74 points.
Slugging percentage: down 155 points
OPS: down 229 points.
OPS+: A drop of 73 percent.
AB/HR:  50% decrease.

Goldschmidt is striking out at a rate that’s just a tick below 30 percent. It would be his worst strikeout plague in a season since his first excursion in the majors in 2011. And he’s batting only .162 with runners in scoring position this season.

Arenado hit 30 homers in 2022 and followed with 26 last season. He has six right now … and visions of another 26-homer year is far away, off in the distance. (I can’t see it.) At the moment, Arenado’s .371 slugging percentage would be 34 points under his previous career low in a season.

And there’s the matter of Arenado pulling fly balls and line drives for home runs to left:

2021: 34 pulled HRs.
2022: 30 pulled HRs,
2023: 23 pulled HRs.
2024: 5 pulled HRs.

Statcast data points to Arenado’s foundational problems: his hard-hit rate is in the bottom nine percent of MLB hitters. His average exit velocity is in the bottom six percent. His barrel rate – 3 percent – is way down from his career 7.6 percent coming into the season. This is why Arenado’s expected slugging percentage (.339) is in the bottom 21 percent of big-league hitters.

The demotion of esteemed prospect Jordan Walker could be considered the biggest disappointment for the Cardinals in 2024. But he’s 22 years old, was a rookie last season, and still has a lot to learn in his endeavor to hit fewer ground balls and more flies and line drives. It’s not unusual for a second–year major-leaguer to get lost, go to the minors to regroup, and work their way back to the big leagues.

This isn’t the case with Goldschmidt and Arenado. They’re established stars that have played a combined 26 major-league seasons. They’ve been among the best corner infielders of their generation and were creating a worthy resume for eventual induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

The Cardinals built their lineup around them. They are paying Goldy–Nado a combined $50 million this season. The music hasn’t stopped, but it’s slowed, and the disappointment is substantial … even if we already knew a decline was inevitable. But when I look at reasons why the Cardinals are averaging only 4.04 runs per game this season — 25th in the majors — the diminution of Arenado and Goldschmidt goes on the top of the list.

Next Up: A look at first-half surprises, assessing the front-office moves, the best underdog story and assorted strengths and weaknesses.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided perspective and informed opinions on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available wherever you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.