Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Brewers Are What The Cardinals Used To Be.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Milwaukee Brewers, the St. Louis Cardinals. Three summertime games at Busch Stadium. Two contenders, two rivals, meet again in a scrap for the NL Central division title.

Oh, wait. That’s right. I suppose I need more coffee or something. I must have been daydreaming about a series that could have been … but isn’t.

This is no showdown. The Brewers march into the series with an 11-game lead on the forlorn and fading second-place Cardinals. According to the adjusted forecast from the esteemed analyst Clay Davenport, Milwaukee has a 99.4 percent probability of finishing in first place. The Brewers aren’t clowning around, having won 10 of their last 13 games to all but knock out the Cardinals, Cubs, Reds and Pirates.

Brewers’ franchise player Christian Yelich is out for the season after undergoing back surgery; his last game was July 23. That’s a big loss, right? Well, the Brewers just kept going, rolling to a 14-9 record since Yelich withdrew because of back pain. Despite losing Yelich — who had a .315 average, .406 onbase percentage and .504 slug — the Crew has averaged 4.8 runs over the last 23 games, pounding out 30 doubles, 29 homers and eight triples.

Even if the Cardinals do something crazy and sweep the Brewers, the Redbirds would be eight games out with 35 to play. According to FanGraphs the St. Louis wild-card probability is low at 3.2 percent. OK, I’ll play along. The Cardinals are five games behind Atlanta for the third wild-card diploma, and rather than sit here and waste more time talking about the possibilities, let’s leave it at this: the Cardinals will have to win many, many, many games the rest of the way to make a lunge at October.

This figures to be a difficult proposition because the Cardinals haven’t won more than two consecutive games since clicking off four straight from June 20 through 24. But to summon the kind of verve necessary to gallivant on a longshot run, the Cardinals must start by winning this series. This is a modest but mandatory goal for an disappearing STL club that’s topped only one MLB team – the deplorable White Sox – in winning percentage since July 10.

The Brewers have done it to the Cardinals again, exposing the flagrant flaws of a St. Louis front office that can’t build a team capable of matching the small-market, low-budget entity from Milwaukee. This has been going on since 2017. Over the last seven-plus seasons, the Brewers have a higher winning percentage than the Cardinals and have qualified for more postseasons than the Cardinals.

The Brewers are what the Cardinals used to be: smart, efficient, ahead of the curve, a model for pitching development, and making the best use of financial resources. That seems like a long time ago. Complacency cost the Cardinals, and the Brewers’ highly intelligent baseball operation moved up and took over the NL Central.

I wrote about this much earlier this season, but it’s worthy of a brief recap. St. Louis has outspent Milwaukee by approximately $300.2 million in the 26-man payroll since the outset of 2017. Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. must be a helluva lot more patient than most of us.

Despite seeing so many of the team’s payroll dollars all but flushed down the toilet, DeWitt hasn’t snapped, hasn’t turned the organization upside down, and hasn’t even made any meaningful changes. And the Brewers continue to kick the Cardinals, turning a heated rivalry into a recreational sport.

It is more of the same in 2024. Citing either the 26-man or 40-man payroll (at Cots Contracts) the Cardinals have outspent the Brewers by about $60 million this season. And despite the STL’s obvious financial advantage, let’s see where the teams rank in the major categories in 2024 – and I’ll use the 15-team National League rankings:

Winning percentage: Brewers (.581) 4th, Cardinals (.492), 9th.

Runs scored per game: Brewers 4th, Cardinals14th.

Runs allowed per game: Brewers 2nd, Cardinals 11th.

Defensive runs saved: Brewers 3rd, Cardinals 7th

Starting-pitching ERA: Brewers 14th, Cardinals 24th.

Bullpen ERA: Brewers 2nd, Cardinals 9th.

Stolen bases: Brewers 3rd, Cardinals 12th. Milwaukee has hit a few more home runs than St. Louis this season, but can score in other ways. Taking advantage of the easier access to stolen bases is one example. The Brewers have swiped 159 bags this season – 93 more than the Cardinals.

Minor-league farm system: The Brewers went into the 2024 season with MLB Pipeline’s second-ranked farm system rating, and the Cardinals were far behind that at No. 23. (The ratings have changed since then; the Brewers have promoted multiple rookies to the majors, and the Cardinals have gotten a rankings boost from the emergence of pitching prospect Quinn Mathews.)

Rookies: The Brewers are ranked 6th in the majors in Wins Above Replacement by rookie pitchers; the Cardinals are 15th. The Crew’s rookie position players lead the majors in WAR, and the Cardinals (because of Masyn Winn) are 4th.

The Cardinals used to be dominant in their specialty of drafting and developing pitching but became complacent and ceded their advantage. Because of the Cardinals’ arrogance, the Brewers had a much easier time to surpass the crumbling DeWitt Era in St. Louis. It isn’t just about the pitching. The Cardinals have had too many young hitting prospects wash out or underachieve, the Brewers have done much better in this crucial area.

Last December the Brewers signed outfielder Jackson Chourio, MLB’s No. 1 prospect, to an eight-year, $82 million contract. They did it before Chourio, age 20, made his major-league debut. That’s a confident organization.

In the first two months of the season, the overwhelmed Chourio batted .210, slugged just .327, and had a lowly .581 OPS, and struck out 27 percent of the time. Did Milwaukee rush to demote Chourio to the minors for a reset? The Cardinals may do that with Jordan Walker, but other organizations are wiser and more patient. The Brewers stuck with their phenom, and the team’s excellent coaching staff helped Chourio come around. Since the beginning of June, Chourio has a .314 average, .518 slug, .880 OPS, and has his strikeout rate by 10 percent. He’s already one of the best players in baseball.

A front office led by Matt Arnold does an incredible job of cultivating deep depth by identifying low-cost, high-value signings. The Brewers have been slammed by injuries this season – especially pitching – but have the supplementary talent to fill voids. Milwaukee has used 17 different starting pitchers this season including nine that have made five starts or more. Milwaukee’s bullpen produces a parade of relievers on demand; the front office keeps the organization well stocked to handle emergencies.

That’s how the Brewers have survived a number of potentially devastating developments, including manager Craig Counsell’s decision to defect to the Cubs for a huge contract.

The front office traded pending free-agent ace Corbin Burnes to the Orioles for a good young third baseman (Joey Ortiz) and promising starting-pitcher prospect DL Hall. It was a smart move because the Brewers couldn’t have signed Burnes to a new deal.

The Brewers haven’t had co-ace Brandon Woodruff (shoulder surgery) all season. recovers from shoulder surgery. Injuries have taken down two other starting pitchers, Robert Gasser and Wade Miley. They’ve covered the non-stop rotation shortages by turning to the effectively recycled starter Colin Rea, coming up with a surprisingly good and formerly heralded rookie (Tobias Myers), and trading for Aaron Civale and Frankie Montas.

The superb closer Devin Williams (back injury) returned in late July after missing nearly four months. And he’s been destroying hitters coming back. And Milwaukee had plenty of bullpen crusaders to protect leads until Williams reentered.

The Brewers know what they’re doing.

The Cardinals are the opposite of that.

New proof: Jordan Walker has been sent back to Triple A Memphis because manager Oli Marmol wouldn’t start him against right-handed pitching. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak, who wants Walker to play regularly, responded to Marmol’s stubbornness sending Walker back down to the minors after the 22-year-old right fielder made only 12 plate appearances in his one-week reappearance.

The Cardinals’ baseball operation is cracked and lost in some post-domination haze. The much smarter, opportunistic and highly professional Brewers are happy to take advantage of this once-great franchise down in St. Louis.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. 

Please subscribe and here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.