Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Brewers Dominate The Cardinals. The STL Offense Needs To Get Rolling Again.

The Cardinals were an ideal opponent for Milwaukee’s first home game of the 2022 season. The Cardinals submitted quietly, losing 5-1 in their first first test of the year against a good team.

The Overview

– The Cardinals were handled easily by starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff (five shutout innings) and two of the Brewers’ lesser relievers. The Cards went 5 for 30 with one walk and had only two (hitless) at bats with runners in scoring position.

– The top four spots in the St. Louis lineup – Dylan Carlson, Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill and Nolan Arenado – went a combined 1 for 16 with no walks. The hit was a sixth-inning single by Arenado.

– Adam Wainwright was vulnerable over his 4.1 innings, with the Brewers getting to him for eight hits, two walks and four earned runs. That made it four consecutive low-grade starts by the STL rotation.

The STL Offense Needs More Baserunners: In their last three games the Cardinals have averaged 3.6 runs, batted .232, and have a .265 onbase percentage. Nine of their 11 runs scored in the last three games were delivered via the home run. For the season the Cardinals have scored 65.3 percent of their runs on homers. Obviously, the fellers have to come up with other ways to score. Home runs are great, but it isn’t a good to rely on them so heavily.

Ongoing Rotation Frustration: Going into Friday’s game at Milwaukee, the Cardinals have the worst starting-pitching ERA in the majors at 6.86. In five games opponents have slapped Cards starters for a .355 average, .384 onbase percentage and .559 slug for a .943 OPS.

Moreover the Cardinals have only one start go deeper than 4.1 innings, and that happened on opening day when Wainwright pitched six shutout frames. It’s been nothing but trouble since then.

In their last four starts through Thursday – by Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Dakota Hudson and Wainwright for a second time – the rotation has been thrashed for 16 earned runs in 15 innings. That’s an ERA of 9.60. In the four games opponents have blasted Cards starters for a .389 average, 1.076 OPS and an average of 2.4 homers per nine innings. And the ground-ball rate over the last four starts is an inadequate 35.7 percent.

The rotation will get better, right?

Wainwright In Milwaukee: Including Thursday, his last two starts at American Family Field have consisted of 8.1 total innings and a 9.72 ERA. The Brewers hit him up for a .694 slugging percentage and 1.094 OPS. Since the start of the 2019 season Wainwright has a 4.97 ERA in five starts at Milwaukee.

Wainwright Home and Road: Over the last three-plus seasons Waino has a 2.69 ERA in 42 starts at Busch Stadium — and a 4.72 ERA in 33 road starts. But a lot of the road damage happened in 2019, when Wainwright had a 6.22 ERA in 15 games away from Busch. Since the start of the 2020 season he has a 3.64 road ERA and a 2.76 ERA at home. This home/road split applies to the rotation as a whole. Since the beginning of 2019 the Cardinals have the second-best starter ERA in the majors at home (3.40) and rank 11th in starter ERA (4.51) on the road.

Bombin’ Tommy Edman: After his quiet spring it’s good to see him thriving early. Edman has jumped into the season by going 6 for 15 (.400) with two walks and two home runs – with one homer from each side of the plate. Only Nolan Arenado has a higher OPS (1.429) than Edman (1.337) among Cards regulars. As I’ve pointed out multiple times, Edman has performed better offensively when slotted into the lineup at a spot other than leadoff. That’s true again (so far) this season, with manager Oli Marmol using Edman at the No. 9 spot against right-handed pitching, and at the No. 6 spot against lefties.

Paul DeJong, Sigh: After going 0 for 4 with two strikeouts in Thursday’s loss, DeJong’s batting average has dropped to .176. He’s struck out seven times in 20 plate appearances (35 percent) but does have three walks. And while Pauly has an above average OPS+ (102), he’ll have to find a way to avoid sinking. Last season DeJong batted .197 with a .674 OPS and an OPS+ (86) that was 14 percent below league average. Edmundo Sosa hasn’t started a game this season, so we can expect to see him at shortstop at some point during the Milwaukee series.

Woe is Bro: Well, not really. But since homering and driving in five runs against the Pirates on opening day, Tyler O’Neill has gone 1 for 14 with one RBI (on a sac fly) over the last four games. (But at least he’s struck out only once during that time.) O’Neill had a big miss in the top of the third Thursday, flying out to short right field with the bases loaded. End of threat. End of inning. Milwaukee protected its 2-0 lead.

The situation was favorable for O’Neill, who stepped in after Woodruff had just thrown 18 pitches (total) to Dylan Carlson and Paul Goldschmidt. Before O’Neill’s at-bat the Brewers had a win expectancy of 68 percent. After Woodruff made easy work of O’Neill, the Milwaukee win expectancy jumped to 78 percent.

Second Guess: Manager Oli Marmol gave up a precious out in the top of the third, ordering up a sac bunt by Edman with runners on first and second and no outs and Milwaukee leading 2-0. Before the bunt the Cardinals already had a runner in scoring position with three outs to work with. I was surprised by this. It gave me an unfortunate Mathenaging flashback. I get it; Marmol wanted to manufacture a run. But a sac bunt in that situation revealed something else: a lack of confidence in his hitters on this day … even though the Cardinals were only down two runs and had 21 outs to play with.

Considering the futility on offense that followed, I suppose we can say Marmol had the correct instinct in the attempt to scratch out a run. And this decision didn’t cost the Cardinals a win. You don’t have much of a chance to prevail on a day when the other team gets a terrific start – and your team doesn’t. The average Game Score for a starting pitcher is 50. On Thursday Woodruff posted a 62 Game Score for Milwaukee – 26 points higher than Wainwright’s 36 GS for the Cards.

Albert Pujols Watch: after a single and a walk on Thursday, Pujols is hitting .333 on the season with a .968 OPS. Small-sample happiness. Pujols got thrown out trying to steal third base in Thursday’s second inning. Pujols didn’t think Woodruff was paying attention to him as he took a lead from second base. And Pujols’ judgment in these situations has been outstanding through the years. But not this time. Woodruff picked up on it and ruined the gamble.

Nothing Wrong With Milwaukee’s Rotation: The first-week turbulence is clearing. In the Brewers’ last two games Corbin Burnes and Woodruff didn’t allow a run in 12 combined innings, getting nicked for only six hits and two walks. Since the start of last season Milwaukee’s starting pitchers have a 2.60 ERA against the Cardinals in 103.1 innings. The Brewers’ rotation has held St. Louis hitters to a .224 average and weak .621 OPS over that time.

Kolten Wong On Brewers Fans: “The fans are amazing. You can tell there’s a little bit of alcohol in there. They’re a little rowdy. But it’s so fun. That’s what we were missing for a while. Now that things are starting to get back to normal, you feed off of that. This crowd, every single time they’re out here, you feed off that energy they’re bringing — that liquid courage. I love it. Keep it coming.”

Next On The Sked: Miles Mikolas vs. Fastball Freddy Peralta at 7:10 p.m. The Cardinals had some success against Peralta last season; he had a 5.29 ERA in 17 innings vs. STL.

NL Central Quickies: Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki has at least one RBI in his last five games. He’s batted .353 with a 1.370 OPS, three homers, and 10 RBI over the five-game stretch. The Cubs are 4–2 on the season … the Reds (2-5) are batting .196 with a .596 OPS, and their pitchers have an ERA of 5.55 … Reds manager David Bell used an “opener” for Thursday’s game at Los Angeles, with reliever Luis Cessa getting the starting assignment. It didn’t go well; Cessa allowed five hits and three runs in the first inning, and the Dodgers pounded the Reds 9-3 … Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes is batting .409 with a .958 OPS. After signing Hayes to an eight-year deal for $70 million, the Pirates and center fielder Bryan Reynolds avoided an arbitration hearing by agreeing to a two-year contract worth $13.5 million. Reynolds can’t become a free agent until after the 2025 season.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated and analytical sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the “Bernie Show” podcast at 590thefan.com — the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.

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All stats used here were sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball Net unless otherwise noted.