Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals Are A Game Under .500 Over Their Last 27 Games. When Will They Reawaken?

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals had many bouquets tossed their way Monday after acquiring starting pitcher Erick Fedde and outfielder Tommy Pham from the White Sox. It was part of a three-team transaction with Tommy Edman trading in Cardinal red for Dodger blue. The Cardinals managed to do this without sacrificing a potential star prospect in the maneuver.

— Keith Law, The Athletic: “I don’t know how the Cardinals managed to pull this off, but they got a very good and wildly underpaid starter plus a decent bench bat while giving up only a single prospect, a 17-year-old pitcher in the DSL named Oliver Gonzalez … Fedde has been one of the best starters in the American League by any measure this year, ranking second by bWAR and 10th by fWAR, and he’s been durable and able to work relatively deep into games … getting Fedde helps them this year as they try to claim a wild-card spot while also setting them up well for 2025.”

— Craig Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus: “The Cardinals fortified the middle of their rotation and gave themselves additional firepower against left-handed pitching for a player (Edman) they haven’t even seen on a major league field in 2024, and a DSL arm. There are, of course, other ways to frame the deal, but none of them preclude us from saying this was a really nice move by St. Louis, who absolutely needed a shot in the arm after falling out of a Wild Card slot recently.”

—  Zachary Rymer, Bleacher Report: “In all, the Cardinals shipped out a player (Edman) they had been able to live without to get two players who should help them live an even better life.”

And if president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and advisors can secure a damn good reliever before Tuesday’s trading deadline, they’ll deserve some boutonnieres.

Baseball deals aside, the only problem for St. Louis Monday was the actual attempt to play baseball at Busch Stadium. But the Texas Rangers muted at least some of the STL buzz with a 6-3 victory. The home team scored one over the final six innings after Matt Carpenter deposited a two-run homer into the St. Louis bullpen for a 2–1 lead in the third.

The Redbirds sabotaged themselves with a couple of defensive fumbles by left fielder Alec Burleson and third baseman Nolan Arenado.

Starting pitcher Andre Pallante endured repeated instances of misfortune, making good pitches that the Rangers chipped or rolled for hits. More on that later.

The Cardinals offense is flickering. With Monday’s setback, the Cardinals have lost 10 of their last 16 games. And as the offensive cold front moved in, the Redbirds have been held to four runs or fewer 10 times, and scored no more than three runs eight times.

The Cardinals are only 2-5 in their last seven games. And we’re seeing how harshly the offense suffers when several of their most important pieces turn frosty.

Here are some examples pulled from the last seven games, a sequence that began July 21 …

+ Alec Burleson and Brendan Donovan have combined for six hits in 55 at-bats (.109) without an extra-base hit and one RBI. They’re a combined 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position over that time.

+ Let’s add some names to the slump list since July 21st, OK? Burleson, Donovan, Masyn Winn, Willson Contreras, Nolan Gorman, Nolan Arenado, Lars Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson have collectively batted .158 with 12 RBIs in 171 at-bats. The only positives in there are two homers apiece by Contreras and Arenado.

And there’s this statistical gold nugget …

During the current homestand, the Cardinals are 1-3 against the Nationals and Rangers. There’s something unusual about the four games:

• Plate appearances with runners in scoring position by the Cardinals: 24.
• Plate appearances with RISP by the Nationals and Rangers: 70.

Wait. Really? Yes. And that’s absolutely bananas.

Part of this is a reflection on the Cardinals’ pitching problems. But a lot of it also has to do with STL’s inability to create a sizable number of RBI opportunities.

When a team has only 24 plate appearances with RISP and the opponents have 70, well, what do you think will happen? This …

The number of runs scored with runners in scoring position by the Cardinals and their opponents over the last four games:

• Cardinals, 9
• Opponents, 31

Good grief.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: Going into Tuesday’s game vs. Texas, the Cardinals are 11-12 in July, 6-10 since July 10 and 13-14 since June 27. St. Louis is 1-4 in its last five games, and has two victories in the last seven …

HOME ADVANTAGE? OR HOME INVASION? This is a major problem that’s negatively impacting the Cardinals in two races: their bid to chase down the first-place Brewers in the NL Central and hold down a wild-card playoff spot. The Cardinals are 3-7 at Busch Stadium in July for a .300 home winning percentage that ranks 25th in the majors for the month. Going back to June 27, the Cards are 5-9 in their last 14 games at Busch.

STANDINGS CHECK: After flopping Monday the Cardinals (54-52) trail the Brewers by seven games. They hadn’t been seven games out of first place since July 3. And the Cardinals are now tied with the Pirates (54-52) for second place in the division. As for the wild-card scrum, the Mets and Padres are tied for the second (and third) spots behind the Braves. The Mets and Pirates lead the Diamondbacks by a half-game and are two games above the Pirates and Cardinals and four games ahead of the Giants.

With Monday’s loss, the Cardinals have a 7.8 percent chance of winning the NL Central according to the FanGraphs playoff odds. And five contending teams currently have better odds of seizing a wild-card than the Cardinals. In order: the Braves (72.1%), Padres (55.3%), Diamondbacks (49.7%), Mets (49.6%) and Giants (17.4%) and Cards (15.1%).

POOR PALLANTE: First, he loses his spot in the starting rotation with the trade for Fedde. Then he goes to work against the Rangers and became the victim of a soft-contact curse. Pallante was charged with seven hits, and five never left the infield.

Here’s how Statcast categorized those seven hits against Pallante: two hits on flares/burners, one hit on poor/weak contact, four hits on poor/topped contact. The standard batting average against Pallante in this start was .318. Based on quality of contact, the expected batting average was .217. The Rangers put 17 balls in play against Pallante and had a gentle hard-hit rate of 23.5 percent. The visitors did not barrel a single ball, but had a .418 average on batted balls in play.

It was a paper-cut performance by Pallante, who went five innings. He had three earned runs placed next to his name in the box score and deserved a much cleaner pitching line. Since moving into the rotation on May 29, Pallante had a 3.61 ERA in 10 starts. Over that time, Pallante’s earned-run average was the best among St. Louis starters.

In 20 career starts for the Cardinals, Pallante has molded a 3.80 ERA. He’s pitched well enough to earn starts in a mediocre-to-average rotation, but the Cardinals obviously don’t see it that way. Baseball can be unfair. Pallante learned that twice on Monday: before the game when the trade news came – and then during the game, when the Rangers benefited from an absurd amount of batted-ball blessings.

CHRIS ROYCROFT: He had another relief performance in Monday’s loss, and his numbers have taken an ugly turn:

* 4.45 ERA for the Cardinals on the season.
* Last eight appearances: 8.68 ERA.
* A poor strikeout (13.8%) over the last eight outings.
* A poor walk rate (10.8%) over the last eight.
* LH batters have a .308 average, .393 OBP and .538 slug against Roycroft in his last eight call-ins from the bullpen.
* RH batters have a .292/.393/.375 slash line against him over the last eight.

Roycroft has an obvious issue, and I’m basing it on the Statcast data from his last eight relief assignments. He doesn’t have much to get hitters off his harder pitches – the four-seam fastball, sinker and slider. He doesn’t throw a curveball. He doesn’t have a sweeper. He doesn’t throw a changeup. Roycroft’s four-seam fastball averages 95.4 miles per hour, and his sinker comes in faster at 96.1 mph. Roycroft goes with the slider for a different look, but hitters have clubbed it for a .294 average and .647 slug.

With no offspeed pitch or breaking ball, Roycroft has a limited arsenal. Hitters have picked up on it. They know what to hunt for. During his eight-game turbulent stretch, Roycroft has a poor 11.5 whiff-swing rate when throwing heat against LH batters, and those LH hitters have smashed his sinker for a 50 percent hard-hit rate. Roycroft can still overpower RH batters with his four-seamer, but he uses the sinker more frequently and right–handed hitters have batted .313 against it over his last eight outings. And the sinker isn’t a swing-and-miss weapon.

Roycroft doesn’t use the slider nearly as frequently as the sinker and four-seam when facing RH batters, and that makes him predictable. And he’s pretty much a two-pitch guy (four-seam, sinker) against left-handed hitters.

Roycroft has talent, but big-league hitters have zoned in on his pitching approach and can narrow the possibilities of what to look for when facing him.

Did I mention that the Cardinals still (very much) need a high-leverage reliever? The trade deadline expires today at 5 p.m. STL time.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.