Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals’ Dull Offseason Is Getting Flamed By National Media.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The St. Louis Cardinals don’t begin their Grapefruit League schedule until Feb. 22, but off the field they’re getting clobbered by critics who have strong opinions about the team’s slothful offseason.

Before I get to what national media are saying, here’s an idea of the outside view of the Cardinals from assorted analytical sites and sportsbooks.

– FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus each project 78 wins for St. Louis. I’ve rounded that off. The Baseball Prospectus simulations have an average St. Louis total of 77.6 wins. USA Today has 75 wins.

– FanGraphs gives the Cardinals a 20.3 percent shot of making the playoffs. That’s 10th in the NL. The only teams that have a longer odds are Cincinnati at 19.5%, Pittsburgh at 18.5%, Washington at 1.5%, and Colorado at less than 1 percent.

– That postseason probability is lower (14%) in the PECOTA system at Baseball Prospectus.

– The FanDuel sportsbook set the over/under win total for the Cardinals at 75.5. Among National League teams only Colorado (59.5), Miami (63.5) and Washington (70.5) have a lower over/under line than St. Louis. At FanDuel, even the Pirates are listed above the Cardinals with an over/under total of 76.5 wins. Covers dot.com set the over/under number for the Cardinals at 77.5 wins.

If the 2025 Cardinals fail to reach the playoffs, that will be three consecutive seasons of missing out on October baseball. And the three-season absence from postseason ball would be the third during the Bill DeWitt Jr. ownership era. The Cards didn’t make the playoffs in 1997, 1998 and ‘99. DeWitt’s club also came up short in 2016, 2017 and 2018.

In my opinion, if it happens again and the Cardinals are eliminated from playoff contention for the third year in a row, it would be the low point of DeWitt’s ownership term. I say that because of the easier path to October since the postseason format was expanded in 2022 to include three wild-card teams in each league. In the three seasons since the change went into effect, six of the nine National League wild-card teams qualified with fewer than 90 wins. Three made it in with no more than 87 wins.

If the 2025 Cardinals can sneak into the postseason, I’ll consider their season a success based on the low expectations. But beyond that … if you’re confident in a great season by STL, the Cardinals are a 70-1 shot to win the World Series.

The Cardinals continue to get blasted for their somnambulant offseason. If you missed all or some of the metaphorical grenades being lobbed their way, here’s a roundup to get you up to speed. Not all of it is bad …

Our pal Bob Nightengale of USA Today didn’t hold back. The headline over his 2025 outlook was “Dodgers ready to repeat, Cardinals look clueless.”

“This is a franchise we no longer recognize,” Nightingale wrote of the Redbirds. “They’ve been the class of the NL Central since the turn of this century with 11 division titles, four World Series appearances and two championships in front of baseball’s greatest fans. Now, for the first time in three decades, they’re settling for mediocrity while they undergo a rebuild. They haven’t signed a single free agent, made one trade for utilityman Michael Helman, who was about to be designated for assignment by the Minnesota Twins, and still are desperately trying to unload third baseman Nolan Arenado and the remaining ($64) million in his contract. It’s going to be a long, hot summer in St. Louis.”

Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com put the Cardinals on the “Biggest Offseason Losers” list but wasn’t too mean about it.

“The Cardinals are one of three teams that has not signed a player to a free agent contract this winter, joined by a full-on rebuilding Marlins team and the bottom-ten payroll Brewers,” McDaniel wrote. “St. Louis’ payroll is down $35 million from last season, possibly more if the Cardinals can figure out a way to trade Nolan Arenado. On the bright side, they do have a nice group of intriguing young position players, two solid veteran starting pitchers, one of the better closers in baseball and a collection of young pitching prospects who should be showing up in the second half of 2025. There’s a shot that the restraint shown this offseason will look correct a year from now, with a number of young players making big steps forward but that was also the hope last year, with mostly the same group of players, and it didn’t work.”

Among other admonishments, ESPN’s Jeff Passan chastised the Cardinals for their inability to trade Arenado.

“Three years after joining St. Louis, Arenado wants to be traded, and the Cardinals would like to oblige. Just for the right price,” Passan wrote. “With the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers seen as long shots to make a move for Arenado, an eight-time All-Star third baseman, the Red Sox remain the landing spot that makes the most sense. Though Arenado used his no-trade clause to block a deal to Houston this winter, he would waive it to end up in Boston, according to sources.

“Moving Arenado could force St. Louis to eat upward of half the money he is owed ($64 million.) Short of that, Boston’s interest is iffy. Such posturing, of course, is the domain of the winter — and when something looks dead one day, it can come back to life the next. Still, for a team that values its analytical model as much as Boston does, deviating from it is not Boston’s style. The Red Sox will set a number they’re willing to take on. And either there will or won’t be a deal.

“Why St. Louis hasn’t been more aggressive in dealing its bevy of talent — from Arenado to starters Sonny Gray and Erick Fedde to closer Ryan Helsley to young players (Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman) who have hit a wall — is confounding executives around the industry. If the Cardinals aren’t going to spend — and they haven’t spent a dollar in free agency — surely, the thinking goes, they should leverage the players they’ve got now and start building toward something more.

“Instead, they are seemingly content to run it back, even if that means the awkwardness of Arenado returning. The Cardinals have prepared for that possibility — and are content after a mediocre season in which they lost nearly 400,000 fans with another uninspiring winter. It’s an organization stuck in neutral, a feeling that led to John Mozeliak announcing he will step away after the 2025 season and yielding the team’s president of baseball operations job to former Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom.

“The Cardinals’ direction will become clearer when owner Bill DeWitt Jr. decides whether to kick in more money to facilitate an Arenado deal. Just how willing he is to do so will become clearer in the coming days and weeks.”

Zach Presnell of Newsweek is confused by the Cardinals’ offseason.

“The St. Louis Cardinals are reportedly looking to rebuild after years of being mediocre,” he wrote. “They’ve already cut ties with multiple veteran players, but their rebuild hasn’t really gotten off its feet. St. Louis hasn’t traded away their better players, which is typically the idea behind a rebuild. Players like Ryan Helsley and Sonny Gray are losing value by the day. Not to mention the disaster that’s been the Nolan Arenado trade sweepstakes.”

Jim Bowden of The Athletic put Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak on the offseason “losers” list.

“Mozeliak has led the Cardinals’ front office since (2008), helping guide St. Louis to 10 postseason appearances, including a World Series championship in 2011,” Bowden wrote. “His teams had a winning record in all but two of the seasons in that span. However, everyone has an expiration date and Mozeliak has decided to step aside at the end of this year. He’ll turn the keys to the franchise over to former Boston top executive Chaim Bloom, who will become the club’s president of baseball operations.

“Mozeliak’s final offseason running the Cardinals has been a dud. He has not signed a single (major-league) free agent nor made a single trade. Paul Goldschmidt departed in free agency and signed with the Yankees. Most of Mozeliak’s winter has been spent trying to trade the declining Nolan Arenado and his bad contract to no avail. ‘Mo’ is a class act who has had a very respectable career. But, I’m sure this is not how he would have scripted the start of his final year running the show in St. Louis.”

Back to Kiley McDaniel, who put the Cardinals farm system at No 19 … 

“The Cardinals have some strong upper-minors pitching depth in right-handers Tink Hence, Michael McGreevy and Tekoah Roby and left-handers Quinn Mathews and Cooper Hjerpe — and I’d expect to see shortstops JJ Wetherholt and Thomas Saggese as well as catchers Leonardo Bernal and Jimmy Crooks in the upper minors in 2025,” McDaniel wrote. “I’d bet there will be some All-Star appearances among that group, which is increasingly what the Cardinals need from their system. Their organizational payroll posture is effective at filling out a core with solid contributors, but they need to out-scout the competition to find stars since they haven’t been interested in paying retail price in free agency.

“There are only two players in the organization with contracts guaranteed after 2026. St. Louis is in the middle of trying to trade one of them (Nolan Arenado), which bodes well for flexibility, but the core needs to be bolstered by standout young players, whether that is prospects or recent graduates.”

Keith Law (The Athletic) had a more positive view of the St. Louis farm system, putting the Cardinals at No. 14.

“The Cardinals have a lot of untapped potential in their system beyond their top five, and perhaps Rob Cerfolio, newly hired from the Guardians to run player development, can help some of the prospects here who’ve plateaued get back on track,” Law wrote. “Right now it’s a big pile of prospects who’ll get to the majors, but maybe not as impact players — fifth starters and middle relievers and backups — yet some of them at least have the tools or skills to be something more. The talent here probably outstrips the production you see on the stat sheets.”

FanGraphs placed the Cardinals in the “laying the foundation” category in placing MLB teams into tiers. The Cards were ranked 21st overall.

“For all the talk about taking a step back in 2025 to reset for the future, the Cardinals haven’t done much of anything this offseason,” Jeff Mailhot wrote. “They haven’t found a trading partner suitable enough for Nolan Arenado to waive his no-trade clause, and they haven’t exchanged any other established talent for prospects. Considering this, it seems that getting out from Arenado’s contract is their sole focus until Chaim Bloom takes over for lame duck president of baseball operations John Mozeliak after the season. There is some solid young talent currently on the roster, but it looks like St. Louis is content to spend 2025 spinning its tires with the same mediocre group that’s fallen short of the playoffs each of the past two years.”

Jordan Shusterman, Yahoo Sports, gave the Cardinals a “D” grade for their offseason …

“Major Move: Declared their intention to trade Nolan Arenado,” Shusterman wrote. “From the earliest days of this offseason, John Mozeliak has been adamant and tremendously transparent about the club’s desire to trade third baseman Nolan Arenado. With the Cardinals in something of a transitional state as a franchise, both player and team thought it best to find a new home for Arenado and clear the way for some younger players on the St. Louis roster.

“However, Arenado’s contract and the no-trade clause within it have made it difficult for the Cardinals to find the right deal. Arenado rejected an agreed-upon deal to Houston in December, and the Astros have since pivoted with their third-base plans. The Cardinals are still seeking a landing spot for Arenado, and Mozeliak said recently that it’s a ‘coin flip’ whether they will find a deal, even with their continued intentions.

“It’s not that St. Louis’ roster looks particularly poor as currently constructed. It’s that all the Cardinals talk this winter has been about subtracting rather than adding, not just in regard to Arenado but also with trade rumors involving closer Ryan Helsley and starters Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde and Steven Matz. However, all of that talk has amounted to nothing so far, leaving St. Louis with one of the least active offseasons of any team in MLB — and a D grade that reflects it.’

The baseball-writing staff at The Score ranked the 30 teams for their performance through the halfway point of the current decade. The Cardinals were 13th.

“The Cardinals opened the decade with three consecutive wild-card losses before posting their worst winning percentage in 28 years in 2023. There were several bright spots along the way despite the early playoff exits, including Paul Goldschmidt winning NL MVP the same year Nolan Arenado finished third. There were also plenty of tears as the careers of Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, and Albert Pujols ended. The Cardinals’ problem is that they haven’t been able to transition from old to new. St. Louis is set to embark on another era in 2026 with John Mozeliak passing the torch to Chaim Bloom as the Cardinals prepare for a rebuild.”

The Score staff also commented on the PECOTA projection that has the Cardinals winning 78 games in 2025. The writers went with 78 wins. “St. Louis seems to be trying to move into a rebuild but is stuck with an expensive, aging roster and a third baseman who wants to be traded. That’s a recipe for disaster.”

First-year manager Albert Pujols managed the Dominican Republic to the championship in the annual Caribbean Series. Which naturally led to speculation.

“Albert Pujols has expressed his interest in becoming a big-league manager and (St. Louis) could be the perfect opportunity,” wrote Auston Owens of Fansided. “With Oli Marmol not able to reach the goals of the organization over the last three seasons, it would not be surprising if the Cardinals decided to part ways with the skipper. Pujols is a fan favorite in St. Louis (and rightfully so) and would be more than welcomed by the Cardinals fan base as manager. Pujols is one of the most respected former players in the league and would undoubtedly have a great rapport with his players as he has shown in the Caribbean Series.”

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie