Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals Get Help From Unexpected, And Expected, Places.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

For at least one night, the Cardinals emerged from their stupor. They won a ballgame, defeating the Tampa Bay Rays 4-3 Tuesday at Busch Stadium.

It was a twos-day Tuesday, with the teams combining for three two-run homers. Sorry for my attempt to be cute with word play.

Anyway … after the Cardinals had lost four of the five previous games to weaken their pulse, they staged an uprising and tasted the sweetness of success.

For this, I’d like to thank five people:

1. Rookie center fielder Victor Scott, for ripping his first big-league homer, a two-run drive into the home team’s bullpen. The instant family souvenir tied the score 2-2 in the second inning. Scott’s parents were there to witness this special occasion. Victor said he planned to give them the baseball. Even more powerful, he gave Mom and Dad an extraordinary memory.

2. Cardinals special adviser and roving hitting instructor Ryan Ludwick, for his astute and instant-impact work with V. Scott down in the minors. The advice – use a leg kick to power-load his swing – seems to be working really well. Uh, maybe think about making “Luddy” the batting coach in St. Louis next season?

3. Tommy Pham, for a couple of reasons. First, he’s Tommy damn Pham. And we love Tommy damn Pham. And really, that’s enough. But one batter after Scott energized the setting at Busch Stadium, Pham presented one his specialties for the house: a two-run projectile off a lefty pitcher that landed in the visitor’s bullpen.

4. Sonny Douglas Gray: First batter of the game, walk. Second batter of the game, two-run home run. Third batter, reached on error. Uh-oh. After yielding the homer, Gray faced 21 batters during the remainder of his shift, blanking the Rays while conceding just three hits and a walk. After Tampa Bay took that lightning-strike lead, Gray struck out 28.6 percent of the enemies that stood in the box to challenge him. He would not permit any additional disturbances. The way the evening began, Gray’s seven innings of two-run ball was just what the Cardinals needed after inflamed starters Erick Fedde, Kyle Gibson, Miles Mikolas and Andre Pallante were collectively besieged for 18 earned runs in 20 and ⅔ innings for a 7.84 ERA in the previous four games. Gray dealt with the first-inning emergency and closed the wounds.

5. John Mozeliak, the president of baseball ops, for bringing Tommy Pham back to where he belongs and making the peoples happy.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: With the victory, the Cardinals avoided blobbing into a .500 mess and moved up a step on the ladder to 58-56 …the Redbirds trail the 1st place Brewers by six games in the NLC … the Braves were hammered (10-9) by the Brewers Monday. It was Atlanta’s third straight loss and there’s been some shuffling at the wild-card table. The Padres are in the No. 1 slot, a half-game ahead of the Diamondbacks, and the Braves have drifted into the No. 3 spot. After that, the Mets are 1 and ½ games behind the Braves and the Cardinals are three games out of the third spot … Atlanta is 6-10 June 20 … Mike Shildt’s Padres are 12-2 since July 20, and the surge has pushed their record to 10 games over .500 at 62-52 … the Diamondbacks are another hot team, reaching 61-52 on the season by winning 16 of their last 21 games … St. Louis is 10-14 since July 10 and 17-18 since June 27.

TOMMY PHAM: In eight games since returning to his baseball homeland, the tenacious outfielder is 11 for 29 (.379) with three doubles, a triple, two homers and a team-leading nine RBIs. Since being traded here by the White Sox, Pham has a .400 onbase percentage and .759 slug and has pummeled lefties for two homers, six RBIs and a .706 slugging percentage. The Cardinals have won four games since Pham put the uniform back on; in those four victories Tommy was 8 for 14 (.571) with six extra-base hits and eight RBIs.

AUGUST ANGST: In their six games played so far this month the Cardinals are 3 for 38 (.079) with runners in scoring position. All three hits were singles, and their batters struck out 31.5 percent of the time in those RISP tests … the Redbirds have averaged 3.0 runs per game and are batting .216 overall in August … after Scott and Pham produced all four of the team’s runs for the game, the Cardinals went 3 for 18 the rest of the way after Pham’s HR.

THE ‘GOTTA GET GOING’ LIST: The Cardinals have some shivery bats. So here are the guys that need to heat up:

+ Alec Burleson: in 14 games since July 22, the big man is 8 for 55 for a .146 batting average. He’s had one extra-base hit (a homer) and no multi-hit games over that time. One of the problems for the left-swinging Burleson is being used more often against LH pitchers. This season Burly is 22 for 114 (.193) against lefties with a .218 OBP and .281 slug. Per wRC+, Burleson is 61 percent below league average offensively this season when facing lefthanders.

+ Willson Contreras: he’s 4 for 33 (.121) with 11 strikeouts in his last nine games.

+ Lars Nootbaar: 6 for 31 (.194) with a .297 OBP and .226 slug since July 23.

+ Contreras, Burleson, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman and Nootbaar are a combined 10 for 81 (.123) in the team’s first six games in August. And this month the five hitters are 0 for 17 with runners in scoring position. Mercy.

THE WALKER WATCH: Jordan Walker had two hits including a double for Triple A Memphis on Monday. In his last 11 games, Walker is 17 for 47 (.362) with a .415 onbase percentage and .681 slug. And six doubles and three homers. If the Cardinals decided it was worthwhile to promote Walker back to the big club, manager Oli Marmol wouldn’t have to use Alec Burleson so much against lefty throwers. (That said, Walker has had his own struggles vs. LHP.) In the early days of August, STL’s right-handed hitters have a .228 average, .681 OPS and four homers in 139 plate appearances.

SONNY GRAY: In his first three months as a Cardinal, Gray pitched to a 2.98 ERA and 2.53 fielding independent ERA (FIP) in 15 starts and had a superb 31.3 percent strikeout rate. He got smacked around in July with a 6.75 ERA in four starts. But his first two August assignments were encouraging, with Gray allowing four earned runs in 14 innings (2.57) to the Cubs and Rays. Even with the turbulence in July, Gray ranks fourth among NL starters this season in FIP (2.92) and strikeout rate (30.4%). And the Cardinals have a 13-8 record in Gray’s 21 starts.

Gray had some unfair results in July. Gray got away with a lot of hard contact by opponents in June, but wasn’t as fortunate in July. Last month he was tagged for five homers, six doubles and a .534 slugging percentage. But batted-ball luck played a part. Here are the monthly batted ball in play averages against Gray in 2024:

• .333 in March-April
• .250 in May
• .267 in June
• .422 in July
• .206 in August

Gray’s whiff-swing rate has been consistently good each month. One problem for Gray in his stormy July was his normally wicked sweeper pitch.

In every other month of the season, opponents never hit higher than .160 or slugged higher than .226 against Gray’s sweeper. But in July, the bad guys  thrashed the sweeper for a .333 average and .444 slug … with an expected slugging percentage of .516. And while Gray’s whiff-swing rate on the sweeper was good in July, it wasn’t as formidable as in other months.

BIRD BYTES

– Looking forward to Erick Fedde’s first home start as a Cardinal. He goes against the Rays tonight. And after a bad day at the Wrigley Field office in his first start for St. Louis, I think we’ll see Fedde’s sweeper confound the hitters. While pitching for the White Sox this season Fedde allowed a .167 average, .194 OBP and .333 slug when flipping the sweeper.

– Nolan Gorman has only eight plate appearances in August; that ranks 11th among Cardinal hitters.

– In 73 plate appearances since June 23, rookie catcher Pedro Pages is batting .319 with a .347 OBP and a .391 slug.

– I don’t know what this says about the St. Louis offense, but since the beginning of July the two best batting averages on the team belong to rookies Michael Siani (.313) and Pedro Pages (.291)

– In 73 plate appearances since June 23, the rookie catcher (Pages) is batting .319 with a .347 OBP and a .391 slug.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.