Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals’ Hot Streak Is Cooling. Plus, A Look At Oli Marmol’s Decision To Stay With JoJo Romero.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals lost a game they should have won on Monday night in Houston. But an all-around disintegration ruined the Redbirds’ promising early performance, and the Astros rebounded to take over late for a 7-4 victory at Minute Maid Park.

You can’t lose this game after taking a 3-0 lead.

You can’t lose this game after slamming future Hall of Fame pitcher Justin Verlander for four earned runs in his five innings of work.

You can’t mess it up after assertively knocking Verlander out.

You can’t lose this game after carrying a 4-2 lead into the sixth inning.

You can’t get outscored 7-1 after building a three-run lead in the top of the third.

You can’t get shut down by the Houston bullpen over four innings and make it that easy for them.

You can’t have reliever JoJo Romero labor through a 30-pitch appearance and get bombed for two homers and four runs in the eighth inning,

You can’t give up yet another unearned run on an error by shortstop Masyn Winn.

The Cardinals did all of that to give Monday’s game away. And here’s what they didn’t do: build on their early advantage and put the Astros down.

The Cardinals scored one run in the third inning and none after the fifth inning. After wearing down Verlander, the Cards were easily controlled by the Houston bullpen. The Redbirds sent 14 hitters to the plate to face Astros relievers over the final four innings – just two batters over the minimum. The Cardinals reached base twice, both times in the eighth inning, on a walk by Brendan Donovan and a single by Ivan Herrera.

After Nolan Gorman rocked Verlander for his second homer of the game to give the visiting team a 4-2 lead with one out in the top of the fifth, the Cardinals went 1 for 13 with a walk and had only one at-bat with a runner in scoring position. They made six outs on ground balls, five outs on strikeouts, and two on pop-ups. Weak.

After dashing off on a 10-3 streak, the Cardinals are 2-4 in their last six games and have lost three of their last four. Looks like they’re spinning in place again.

Sitting at 3-4 on their three-city, nine-game road expedition, the Cardinals have two more games in Houston. Win both, and they’ll have a winning record for their trip. Lose both, and it’s a 3-6 trip. Split the final two, and it’s a 4-5 trip. Over the next two days we’ll see how they respond.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The loss shoved the Cardinals back to two games under .500 at 28-30. They haven’t had a winning record (5-4) since beating Miami on April 6 … with Milwaukee losing at Philadelphia the Cardinals remained seven games behind the first-place Brewers in the NL Central standings … the Cubs had Monday off, and the St. Louis loss left the Cardinals and Cubs in a tie for second place in the division … the Cubs and Cardinals are also tied for the NL’s third wild-card spot … the loss left the Cardinals with a 15-18 record on the road and a 16-13 mark against teams that currently have a losing record … through 58 games last season the Cardinals were 25-33 but were closer to the first-place Brewers (5 and ½ games) than the 2024 Cardinals are now.

RIGHT NOW THE DEFENSE STINKS: The Cardinals committed two errors Monday, one by Gorman and the other by Winn. Houston’s one unearned run was the 37th against the Cardinals this season. The 37 unearned runs are tied for the fourth most in the majors. Only the Mets (40), Cubs (38) and Red Sox (38) have given up more. The Cardinals have given opponents 16 unearned runs in the last 12 games. In the 12 games, 35.5 percent of the opponent’s total runs have come on unearned runs. The Cardinals have been charged with 21 errors in their last 18 games.

LONG-GONE GORMAN: With two solo homers off Verlander, the third-year slugger increased his season totals to 13 homers, 30 RBIs, a .495 slugging percentage and an OPS+ that puts him 30 percent above league average offensively.

Since May 17, Gorman has two doubles, eight homers and 15 RBIs in 47 at-bats. That goes with a .340 average, 11 percent walk rate, a .404 onbase percentage and .894 slug. Over that time Gorman is tied for second in the majors in homers, is second with a .553 Isolated Power number, is third in slugging and fifth in RBIs.

Since May 10, Gorman leads National League hitters in home runs (9), slugging percentage (.823), WAR (1.5) and OPS (1.253.) And he’s second in RBIs, with 18.

ONE-DIMENSIONAL OFFENSE: St. Louis home runs are always welcome and appreciated, but the Cardinals have become increasingly dependent on them in their current stretch. Over the last eight games 20 of their 29 runs have been produced by home runs.

And the Cardinals haven’t maximized those home runs, hitting eight solo shots and six two-run HRs over the last eight games. In the eight games the Cardinals have delivered only nine RBIs on 260 at-bats that didn’t result in a homer.

A big part of the problem is their .133 batting average with runners in scoring position over the last eight games. The Cardinals went 6 for 45 with RISP with seven RBIs – and all six hits were singles. The Cards are batting .210 with runners in scoring position this season; that ranks 28th overall and 14th in the National League. The Redbirds are batting .203 with runners in scoring position since May 21.

SECOND-GUESSING? Cardinals manager Oli Marmol was working with a shorthanded bullpen Monday, and that led to Romero throwing 30 pitches while getting one out in the seventh and two outs in the eighth. The circumstances weren’t OK, but not ideal. After Romero struck out the extremely dangerous Yordan Alvarez to end the seventh, Marmol opted to have the lefty handle the eighth.

With righty Ryan Fernandez and lefty John King unavailable, Marmol could have gone with some combination of RH Kyle Leahy, RH Ryan Loutos, and LH Matthew Liberatore instead of riding with Romero.

Alex Bregman, who bats right, led off the eighth with a solo homer to tie the game 4-4. Another RH batter, Jake Meyers, was next up. He singled. Jeremy Pena bunted him over. Yainer Diaz clubbed a changeup for a two-run homer to make it 6-4, and the Astros added another run off Loutos.

Marmol could have called on Leahy to open the eighth because the Astros had two right-handed hitters due up. But Bregman has actually hit RH pitchers much better than lefties over the last two seasons. And this year Meyers is batting .318 vs. righties and .257 against lefties. So the decision wasn’t as simple as it seemed.

Romero is an unusual lefty because he’s done well against right-handed batters. Until Monday night, RH batters were hitting .200 against Romero with a .243 OBP and .308 slug. In that context, Romero was a good bet. Obviously, it didn’t work out.

Leahy has been used in some key spots in recent weeks. He’s faced 35 RH batters this season, holding them to a .212 average and low .530 OPS. And none of the 35 RH batters had an extra-base hit against him.

But again, Bregman’s batting splits shouldn’t be overlooked or ignored. Before Monday, Bregman was batting .173 with a ,297 slug and one homer against lefties. Against right-handed pitchers, Bregman had a .252 average, seven homers and a .450 slug. In that scenario was Leahy a smarter bet than Romero? I don’t think so.

I don’t think that using Romero there was outrageous … questionable, yes. Keep in mind that Romero worked 1 and ⅓ innings Sunday in Philadelphia. And now he was back out there in Houston to handle another 1 ⅓ innings if everything went right.

Was Romero vulnerable? As the eighth inning dragged along, I think it did. Romero needed eight pitches to strike out Alvarez in the final at-bat of the seventh. Bregman led off the eighth and homered on the seventh pitch. Meyers singled on the seventh pitch … Romero wasn’t having an easy time of it.

After two more batters (and quick ABs), Diaz was up. I think it was a mistake to have Romero face Yainer Diaz. Two reasons: (a) Romero was having a difficult inning and (b) Yanier is much better against left-handed pitchers. Before last night, per wRC+, Diaz was 12 percent above league average vs. lefties, and 38 percent below average vs. righties. Leahy had earned trust. This would have been a good spot for him. And by using Romero for 30 pitches, Marmol won’t have him available on Tuesday night. And Romero could be off limits again on Wednesday.

The Cardinals would certainly benefit from having a healthy and effective Giovanny Gallegos rejoin the bullpen crew as soon as it’s time to activate him from the IL.

THIRD TIME THROUGH: Cards starter Kyle Gibson gave up five hits, three walks and three earned runs Monday. He struck out eight in 5 and ⅔ innings but encountered turbulence in the sixth inning when the Astros scored a run to cut STL’s lead to 4-3.

Going against the Astros’ lineup for the third time in the game, Gibson pitched to seven batters. The Astros got to him for three hits, a walk and a double.

St. Louis starters have been ineffective this season when pitching to the opponent’s lineup for the third time in a game. In that scenario the starters have been pelted for a .285 average, .353 onbase percentage and .459 slug.

Here’s the OPS against St. Louis starters as the lineup turns over during a game:

1st time through, .741 OPS
2nd time through, .700 OPS
3rd time through, .812 OPS

The Cards starters have a 3.63 ERA in the first time through the lineup, a 3.82 ERA in the second time through the lineup and a 6.46 ERA in the third time through.

The earned-run averages by the four primary starting pitchers during the third time through the lineup: Gibson 4.76, Sonny Gray 4.76, Miles Mikolas 6.06, and Lance Lynn 8.71.

Mikolas has had some back luck in third-time-through situations. Despite that bloated ERA he’s limited opponents to a .228 average, .254 OBP and .351 slug when navigating his way through the lineup for the third time.

JUST THE FACTS

* In the first seven games of the road trip St. Louis has averaged 3.6 runs, batted .226, put up a too-low .273 onbase percentage and slugged .416. And the strikeout rate (24.5%) is too high.

* Ivan Herrera: since entering the game against the Mets on May 8 to replace injured catcher Willson Contreras, the rookie Herrera is batting .319 with a .397 onbase percentage.

* Masyn Winn: When used as the leadoff hitter, Winn is 7 for 30 (.233) with a .250 onbase percentage and eight strikeouts.

* Alec Burleson: after going 12 straight games without a home run, Burly has homered in his last two games. He jacked a home run off Taijuan Walker in Philadelphia Sunday then followed with a first-inning shot against Verlander on Monday. Burleson needs one homer to match his entire total (8) in 2023.

* Even with Burleson’s home run on Monday, the St. Louis outfielders as a group are batting .207 on the season with a .280 OBP and .325 slug for a .605 OPS.

* The Cardinals hadn’t cranked two first-inning home runs this season until Burleson and Gorman got it done Monday.

* Before Burleson and Gorman went deep Monday night, the Cardinals hadn’t homered at Minute Maid Park since Jeremy Hazelbaker and Brandon Moss launched HRs in same game on Aug. 17, 2016.

* Before Monday, Romero had allowed only four earned runs this season while facing 108 batters over 29 innings. Monday he allowed four earned runs to the Astros in facing seven batters over one inning. Before Monday Romero had given up one home run in 28 appearances. And then he was hammered for two home runs Monday in his 29th appearance of the season.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie hosts an opinionated sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS. It airs 3-6 p.m. Monday through Thursday and 4-6 p.m. Friday. Stream live or access the podcast on 590thefan.com or the 590 The Fan St. Louis app.

Please follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz and on Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz via 590thefan.com or through your preferred podcast platform. Follow @seeingredpod on Twitter for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Sports Info Solutions, Spotrac and Cot’s Contracts unless otherwise noted.