Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals’ Starting Pitching Bounces Back, Setting Up A Chance To Sweep Tampa Bay.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Other than the mere happiness of winning the first two games to set up a chance to sweep visiting Tampa Bay, the other positive for the Cardinals was seeing their starting pitchers do a commendable job.

Sonny Gray allowed two runs in seven innings to play a lead role in Tuesday’s 4-3 win. In his first home start as a Cardinal, Erick Fedde followed up that with five innings of one-run ball in Wednesday’s 5-2 victory.

No, I won’t do a TikTok video showing off my new dance moves to celebrate a five-inning start – in case you’re wondering, I fancy the Swagg Bouncee – but let’s not miss the point here.

Fedde labored through the second and third innings, throwing 63 pitchers to get six outs. That’s an average of 10.5 pitches per out. That’s a lot!

Fedde faced 12 batters across the two frames and was behind in the count 14 times. He pitched on three-ball counts eight times. Trouble was brewing, but Fedde gave up two hits, two walks and a run in the two innings. He escaped with minimal harm. The only real damage was a rapid elevation of his pitch count.

During his two sweaty innings, Fedde threw 53 pitches with at least one runner on base, and only 10 pitches with the bases empty. And 40 of Fedde’s pitches came when the Rays had guys in scoring position.

Fedde didn’t capitulate. In the second and third innings, Tampa Bay went 1 for 7 with men on, and 0 for 6 with fellows on second base, third base, or both. Fedde’s stubborn resistance kept the St. Louis lead at 3-1 going into the fourth. And then he breezed over his final two innings, throwing only 18 total pitches. But by then Fedde was up to 93 for the night, and manager Oli Marmol turned the proceedings over to his bullpen.

It wasn’t technically a quality start, but Fedde provided quality competitiveness. He got 10 outright swings and misses (no fouls) and struck out 28.5 percent of his 21 batters faced.

On the first two nights of the series, Gray and Fedde worked a combined 12 innings and allowed three runs for a 2.25 ERA. This matters because Cardinal starting pitchers had a 5.15 ERA in their previous 42 games.

Two good starts in a row doesn’t make a trend, but to turn the performance around, the Cardinals had to begin somewhere. Kyle Gibson gets the ball for an opportunity to keep it going by pitching effectively in his Thursday-night starts. And if Gibson can subdue the Rays, the Redbirds could complete a three-game sweep.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: After two consecutive wins over the Rays, the Cardinals are 59-56 through 115 games and have 47 matchups remaining on the regular-season schedule … The Cards are 3-4 in August, 9-10 since the All-Star break, 11-14 in their last 25 and 18-18 since June 27… Fangraphs projects an 82-80 record for the Redbirds, with Baseball Prospectus forecasting an 83-79 finish for STL.

STANDINGS CHECK: Despite winning two straight the Cardinals remained six games behind first-place Milwaukee in the NL Central because the Brewers have won two in a row at Atlanta, outscoring the Braves 18-5… the Cardinals moved back into second place when Pittsburgh was swept by Arizona in Wednesday’s doubleheader. The Cardinals are two games ahead of the Pirates (56-57).

In the wild-card mosh pit, Arizona and San Diego are each 63-52 and tied for the No. 1 spot, with slumping Atlanta (60-53) on the No. 3 peg, two games behind the Diamondbacks and Padres … next are the NY Mets, who are a half-game behind the Braves. STL is two games out of the third spot and San Francisco is 3 and ½ games away from the Braves.

Arizona has won four in a row and 12 out of the last 14 games. San Diego has won 13 of its last 15. On the other end of the streaking, the Braves have lost four consecutive games and are 6-11 in the last 17.

TOP OF THE LINEUP: Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson and Willson Contreras occupied the top three lines of manager Marmol’s lineup card … and man, did they come through. The trio combined for six hits in 12 at-bats (.500) with four runs scored and three RBIs.

To chart it another way, the top three spots supplied six of the team’s nine hits, scored four of the five runs, and delivered three of the five RBIs.

NOLAN ARENADO: He took care of the rest of the team’s business on offense Wednesday with two hits including a two-run double that opened a 3-1 lead for the home team. Arenado has cranked it up over his last eight games, going 11 for 31 (.355) with a .452 slugging percentage and .827 OPS. I’ll be writing more about Arenado later this afternoon.

MASYN WINN’S OUTSTANDING ROOKIE SEASON: Here are a few items about the splendid St. Louis rookie. As we watch him play, the more we’re impressed after realizing (again) that he’s only 21 years old. In 107 games this season, Winn has hit .288 with a .749 OPS – and is nine percent above league average offensively in adjusted OPS.

+ In his last 14 games, Winn has batted .288 with a .525 slugging percentage and .869 OPS. He isn’t getting worn down; he’s getting stronger.

+ As a leadoff man at the top of the lineup, Winn has struggled to get on base at a decent rate. But that’s seemingly changing, because Winn has a .344 leadoff OBP since July 24.

+ Winn still leads MLB shortstops with 13 defensive runs saved. He’s also first double-play runs saved above average, second in double plays turned, and second in range. Winn’s average of 93.7 mph per throw ranks third among major-league shortstops behind Pittsburgh’s O’Neil Cruz (95.7 mph).

+ Winn is only one of two rookies in Cardinals franchise history that has put together this wide-ranging statistical set:

— At least 20 doubles
— At least nine homers
— At least four triples
— At least 41 RBIs
— At least 53 runs scored
— At least 10 steals
— An OPS of .749 or higher

The only other Cards rookie to assemble that particular package of stats in a season was Wally Moon in 1954. Moon was voted NL Rookie of the Year that season. Winn is obviously one of the league’s best rookies, but he’s been overshadowed by Pittsburgh ace Paul Skenes and San Diego center fielder Jackson Merrill.

Of course, the 2024 season isn’t over and Winn must maintain his pace. But if he does that, then consider this: during the expansion era (1961-present) only six full-time rookie shortstops have compiled the combination of offensive statistics that match or exceed Winn:

– Derek Jeter, 1996
– Nomar Garciaparra, 1997
– Angel Berroa, 2003
– Hanley Ramirez, 2006
– Kevin Newman, 2019

Helluva player, this Masyn Winn.

THE ODD STRUGGLES OF LARS NOOTBAAR: He went 0 for on Wednesday night and is batting .133 in six games this month. Nootbaar had a few strong games offensively when he came off the IL on July 8. But in his last 21 games (17 starts), Nootbaar has batted .194 with a terrible onbase percentage (.271) and poor .274 slugging rate.

But I have to say this about Noot: he’s been hitting the ball dang hard since coming back from the injured list, with a hard-hit rate of 49.4 percent and an average exit velocity of 91.5 mph. But he hasn’t turned the impressive metrics into impressive production. The obvious reason for that is a .264 average on balls in play. That’s well below the overall MLB average of .290 this season on balls in play. So bad luck is definitely a factor. Based on the quality of contact, Nootbaar has a “deserved” batting average of .252 and an expected slugging percentage of .441.

RYAN HELSLEY: Despite allowing two runners in the 9th inning, the Cards closer bagged another save Wednesday, giving him a majors-leading 36 saves. That’s three more than Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase (36.) Helsley is also tied for second in the majors with a 92 percent success rate in securing saves. That applies to closers that have at least 20 save opportunities this season.

Helsley’s 36th save tied him with Dennis Eckersley (1997) for 12th for most saves in a season by a Cardinal reliever. Next up for Helsley: Edward Mujica, 37 saves in 2013. And then it’s 38 saves by Ryan Franklin in 2009, and Jason Isringhausen’s 39 saves in 2005.

PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT: Fangraphs gives St. Louis a 9.8 percent chance to win the division and a 9.4 percent possibility of earning a wild card for an overall postseason probability of 19.3 percent. Excluding the NL’s current division leaders, here’s the shot of making the playoffs for each team that’s in the wild-card chase:

Padres, 82.9%
Diamondbacks, 73.7%
Braves, 72.5%
Mets, 39.5%
Cardinals 19.3%
Giants, 12.3%
Cubs, 7.4%
Pirates, 5.7%

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube, which just went online. I’ll be doing these at least five times per week, and will limit the length of each episode to 10 to 13 minutes. Subscribe @TheBernieShow

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.