Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals, Three Bad Losses, Mike Shildt, And Bullpen Madness

Welcome to The Redbird Review

After being swept by the Atlanta Braves in a three-game series at Busch Stadium, the Cardinals are 30-40 since May 14. And that is really bad, my friends. Not that you needed me to tell you that.

Here are MLB’s four worst winning percentages since May 14:

• Arizona, .236
• Pittsburgh,  .361
• Miami,  .417
• St. Louis, .429

All 15 American League clubs have better records than St. Louis since May 14. Your Cardinals rank 27th among the 30 MLB teams in winning percentage over the last 2 months and 23 days. We’re witnessing one of the most severe breakdowns by a Cardinals team in a long time.

And that’s a fact — no matter how many times the Cardinals and their manager comfort themselves by attributing their collapse to starting-pitching injuries.

Tell that to the Mets, Braves, Dodgers, Padres, Astros, Reds, Indians, Mariners, Yankees, Rays, Marlins, Rockies, Nationals — and just about everyone else.

The list of starting pitchers that have missed considerable time with injuries this season could fill a couple of All-Star roster: Jacob deGrom, Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Carlos Carrasco, Noah Syndergaard, Stephen Strasburg, Dustin May, Mike Soroka, Clayton Kershaw, Mike Clevinger, Chris Paddack, Zac Gallen, Madison Bumgarner, Jake Odorizzi, Danny Duffy, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Max Fried, Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, Corey Kluber, Matthew Boyd, Tyler Glasnow, Marco Gonzales, James Paxton, Austin Gomber.

As predicted and expected, starting-pitcher injuries have caused chaos and crises throughout MLB. Smart, resourceful and prepared front offices diligently added depth to soften or limit the damage.

In St. Louis?

Not so much.

But I’ve been hollering about this since late in the offseason, and I’ve been steadfast in refusing to give the Cardinals a pass on this. My empathy is minimal.

Why? Because the Cardinals left themselves short. And while the Jack Flaherty injury (oblique tear) was a genuinely unexpected blow, the Cardinals weren’t ready to handle it. And I don’t want to hear about Miles Mikolas; the man hadn’t pitched since the 2019 NLCS and it was crazy to count on him to be a full-go member of the rotation all season. He’s pitched four innings this season.

Was losing Flaherty any more devastating than the Astros not having Verlander, or the Red Sox going without Sale, or the Indians losing Bieber, or the Nationals seeing their investment in Strasburg go down the drain? Was the absence of Flaherty for the last couple of months more debilitating than the Mets getting only 100 combined innings this season (so far) from deGrom?

The Braves don’t have the same rotation without Soroka, the missing ace? He hasn’t thrown a pitch this season. But do you hear any caterwauling in Atlanta? Was there any whining or butt-covering when the Braves lost outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. to season-ending knee surgery? Heck, no. Atlanta’s front office went out and improved the damn team.

Take notes, Bill DeWitt Jr.

BULLPEN FIASCO: Manager Mike Shildt misplaced his judgment Thursday night in his deployment of relievers Giovanny Gallegos and Alex Reyes in the eighth inning of a 4-4 game a night. It was an embarrassing failure for Shildt.

I’ll address this one pitcher at a time …

GIO GALLEGOS: A night after Gio labored through a 28-pitch appearance with an extra-slow pace and uncomfortable body language, Shildt ran him out there again. As I documented in a column filed here on Thursday afternoon before the game, Gallegos simply isn’t the same pitcher after an extra-busy first half. But Shildt and his apologists seem to think that all was swell just because Gallegos had a chance to rest up for a while in recent days.

Wrong. All the warning signs had already been there — fallen strikeout rate, increasing walk rate, more meatball pitches, a reduced vertical drop on his slider. If I identified these things and wrote about them, then why are the Cardinals so oblivious?

Gallegos retired two batters, but again, the hazard lights were flashing … the Ozzie Albies ground ball out that had an exit velocity of 94.8 mph. A deep fly blasted to center by Jorge Soler had a sizzling exit velo of 106 mph. Next: a single to left by Freddie Freeman (102.8 mph), a two-run bomb by Austin Riley (107.4 mph), and a double by Darby Swanson (103.1 mph.)

The Braves jumped Gio for three earned runs and five consecutive hard-contact ABs to seize a 7-4 lead.

This is the tell: Gallegos has allowed an average exit velocity of 89.1 mph this season — but the Braves lit him up for an average exit velo of 102.8 mph. My goodness.

This is also a tell: The Braves had an average exit velo of 106.7 mph on Gio’s slider, the average exit velo on the Gallegos slider this season is only 84.2 mph.

The Braves must have added rocket fuel for the showdown with Gallegos. And for those paying attention and this only reaffirmed the just reasons for concerns over Gallegos.

In his consecutive appearances against the Braves, Gallegos retired four batters; was pelted for six hits including a homer and two doubles; was smashed for a line-drive rate of 56 percent, and struck out only one of 12 batters faced.

Hey, but everything is fine!

Welcome to Candyland!

“The only mistake Gio made was to Riley, made him pay. All his stuff was there, stuff was crisp. Velocity was there, slider was there. He just made a mistake,” Shildt said.

Yeah, and I look like Brad Pitt.

And I am living on a tropical island in a beachfront villa as I type this.

And though I work two jobs, I have $50 million in the bank.

When opponents are going dynamite-boom on contact and launching batted balls that leave the bat at 100+ miles per hour, a pitcher is making more than one mistake, and his stuff if the opposite of “crisp.”

Since the end of June Gallegos has made 15 appearances, worked 14.1 innings and has a 7.53 ERA. His strikeout rate — which was 31.8% over the first three months — is 25% since July 1, and 21.4% since the All-Star break. His walk rate is on the rose. And after having a strikeout-walk ratio of 6.0 through the end of June, it’s a much weaker 3.2 over his ensuring appearances.

Gio’s WHIP was 0.64 at the end of June; it’s 1.33 since then. His home-run rate was 0.4 per nine innings before July; it’s 1.4/9 since July 1. And after stranding 77 percent of runners on base in the first three months, the strand rate is 50% over the last five weeks.

But his stuff is crisp, right?

ALEX REYES: Thursday’s Reyes debacle was stunning. Just stunning. Knowing that Reyes has endured multiple surgeries that sidetracked his career in an alarming and depressing way, you’d think Shildt would be just a little careful as he supervises Reyes’ relaunch.

On my 590 KFNS radio shows leading up to the trade deadline I expressed hope that John Mozeliak would acquire an established MLB reliever that Shildt would trust. Why? As a form of protection that would lessen the risk of Reyes and Gallegos pitching their way to an injury because of the heavy workload. Obviously that didn’t happen. People thought I was joking about this — no, I was 100 percent serious.

Why would I want to see Genesis Cabrera, Gallegos or Reyes suffer an injury? Why would any of you want to see that? The risk factor is there; Shildt simply does not trust any reliever to protect late-inning leads, or hold things in place in a tie game.

All we can do is hope that they make it through the remainder of the season without harm. I would hate to see any of these guys have to go through Tommy John surgery, or a shoulder surgery, or some other such disaster.

I didn’t have a problem with Shildt using Reyes Thursday. It was fine. The egregious mistake was leaving Reyes in the game for too long on a night when he could not locate the strike zone. Only two strikes in his first 18 pitches. Only four strikes in his 21 pitches overall. The sequence: hit batter, walk, walk, walk, walk. Reyes was frustrated, he lost composure, and the situation worsened with every pitch. And Shildt just sat there and watched, like some dude in the stands eating popcorn.

The manager had to intervene sooner. He had to warm up another reliever sooner. Where was the urgency? Why wasn’t another reliever getting ready? Dan McLaughlin wondered about that a couple of times during the Reyes meltdown.

Yeah, if I was a manager wanting to win the game and also look after Reyes I’d sit and spectate as Reyes went HBP, walk, walk, walk, walk. And besides, the Cardinals already were down by two runs when Reyes entered the fray. So why keep Reyes in there to walk the night away, allow an inherited runner score, and let in two more runs before Shildt belatedly hopped out of the dugout?

What did this achieve?

“That was really weird, I’m not gonna lie,” Riley told Atlanta media after the game. “Bases-loaded, then walk (four) guys. It doesn’t really happen very often.”

What are we doing here?

Of course, a big part of this is Mozeliak’s fault. He hasn’t addressed the bullpen vulnerability in a credible way. And Mozeliak has to be aware of Shildt’s tendency to turn to the “Big Three” to seal victories. Or to maintain a tie. These were three of the busiest relievers in baseball over the first three months. And Shildt isn’t going to break his habit of depending on the Big Three — even to the point of excess.

This is what happens when the front office naps while the bullpen burns. It also doesn’t excuse Shildt for pushing his go-to guys into the flames, defying common sense.

Reyes is at risk, anyway. The previous injuries. The lack of pitch efficiency and the duress caused by all of those errant pitches that build up his walk count. A manager shouldn’t play with fire.

Over the first three months Reyes had a 0.96 ERA, a strikeout rate of 32.1 percent, and a walk rate of 18.9%.

Since the beginning of July, Reyes has a 7.36 ERA, a 14.8 percent walk rate, and a walk rate of 22.2%.

Reyes has the second-highest walk rate (19.7%) among qualifying MLB relievers this season. According to FanGraphs data that goes back to 1915, Reyes’ 19.7 percent walk rate would be the worst by a Cardinal reliever in a season.

RELATED AND UNFORTUNATE STATISTICS: Let’s do another round of play “Before and After.”

— In the season’s first three months Cabrera, Gallegos and Reyes combined for a 1.84 ERA in 117 innings. Their strikeout rate was 30.2 percent.

— Since July 1, Cabrera, Gallegos and Reyes have combined for a 7.00 ERA in 36 innings and have a strikeout rate of 17.2 percent. Plus a 17.7% walk rate.

— Among 155 MLB relievers that have pitched at least 10 innings since July 1: Cabrera ranks 128th in ERA (5.91), Reyes ranks 143rd in ERA (7.36), and Gallegos is 144th with a 7.53 ERA.

CAN I WALK WITH THE BASES LOADED? It looks fun, I sure could use the exercise, and it’s easy to do when the Cardinals are doing the pitching. As you know, the St. Louis slingers have walked a hitter with the bases loaded 26 times this season. That “leads” the majors and the count is double that of the next-worst staff on the list, Texas (with 13.) And let’s not forget the six bases-loaded walks. That adds up to 32 gift runs handed to opponents.

From MLB.com: “Since the start of the Expansion Era in 1961, the record for most bases-loaded walks in a season is owned by the 1999 Mariners, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Seattle had 28; the Cardinals are currently two shy of tying that mark.”

The Cardinals have cranked up the ballista to walk hitters 456 times this season, most in the bigs. They’ve also hit 78 batters, the most by any rock throwers in the majors.

The Cardinals are walking an average of 4.36 hitters per nine innings; that would be the highest rate for the franchise in a season since the NL adopted the 162-game schedule in 1962. Second on the list: the 1999 Cardinals at 4.15 walks per 9. Where have you gone, Kent Mercker and Ricky Bottalico?

GOOD STUFF FROM AN 0-3 SERIES:

1) Lefty starters J.A. Happ and Wade LeBlanc made starts against the Braves and combined to allow four earned runs in 11 innings. That’s a 3.27 ERA.

2) LeBlanc has a 2.94 ERA in seven starts for the Cardinals. Media peoples keep talking about LeBlanc not having a “win” as a St. Louis starter. Well, combining his four best starts LeBlanc 1.61 ERA and never gave up more than two runs. So LeBlanc should have multiple “wins.”  But, well, you know — it’s a team sport and all of that. Relief pitchers, fielders, hitters. They have a lot to do in determining whether a starting pitcher gets a “win.”

3) Tyler O’Neill heated up after his bat went frosty for a while. He went 6 for 12 with two walks against the Braves.

4) Nolan Arenado had three hits vs. the Braves including a homer, double. And he drove in four. Matt Carpenter was 2 for 3 in the series with a walk, stolen base and run scored.

5) Andrew Knizner returned from the hinterlands to start in place of the resting Yadier Molina in Thursday’s game. Gotta love the home run, which he dedicated to his late grandpa.

TRACKING THE SLUMPERS: Pauly DeJong is 0 for his last 18 with nine strikeouts … In his last seven games Harrison Bader is 4 for 25 (.160) with a 28.5% strikeout rate … Tommy Edman went 1 for 10 against Atlanta. He’s hitting .231 with a .616 OPS since June 1 … Edmundo Sosa didn’t have a hit in five at-bats vs. Braves pitching.

REDBIRD RESET: Since a 5-2 homestand when play resumed following the All-Star break, the Cardinals are 4-7 and have lost five of their last seven. In the NL Central the Cards are 11.5 games behind Brewers and 4.5 games behind Reds. In the scrum for the NL’s second wild-card entry pass, the Cards trail the Padres by 8.5 games. But the Cardinals (53-55) have Cincinnati (58-51), Philadelphia (56-52) and Atlanta (55-54) in front of them.

NEXT ON THE SKED: Three games at Busch against Mike Matheny’s Kansas City Royals. Adam Wainwright pitches Friday night.

The closing quote goes to Shildty:

“It’s a group of people that cares,” Shildt said after the 8-4 loss to the Braves. “There’s hurtin’ people in that clubhouse tonight. They laid it out there again tonight and they came up short.”

“We’ll show up tomorrow. I can tell you that.  It’s a group that cares, that’s going to compete … you know a loss like that stings. We can’t take care of the next couple series unless we take care of tomorrow.

“Obviously tonight would have been a good way to get on that proverbial roll, but it wasn’t our night and we’ll show up tomorrow and get ready to compete tonight with Waino on the mound.”

Thanks for reading, and have a good weekend.

–Bernie

Check out Bernie’s sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen live online and download the Bernie Show podcast at 590thefan.com  … the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.

The weekly “Seeing Red” podcast with Bernie and Will Leitch is available at 590thefan.com …

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

* All stats used here are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball Net unless otherwise noted.