Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cards Are Still Bad Vs. Good Teams. And Get Ready For The Flexin’ Cincinnati Reds At Busch Stadium.

WELCOME TO THE REDBIRD REVIEW

There isn’t much to say about Wednesday’s carnage at the ballpark located atop the hill in the Elysian Park neighborhood of Los Angeles. The Dodgers went wilding and humiliated the Cardinals 14-3. 

There isn’t much to say, but I’ll try. 

This was very bad. 

True fact: Before construction crews began building Dodger Stadium in 1959, the planners weren’t sure what to do with a local elementary school, Palo Verde. Why did they care about an elementary school? Well, because the school was in the way of the spot for a planned parking lot. So the crews buried it. Yes. Buried the elementary school. Buried it beneath the parking lot northwest of the third-base side of Dodger Stadium. 

Fortunately, the school was closed. Shuttered for good. The construction dudes didn’t bury the classrooms and cafeteria with people in there, or anything horrific like that. Thank goodness. But from now on the teaching would be done by Dodger manager Walter Alston and the coaches. 

Well, now. On Wednesday night, the Cardinals got the Palo Verde Elementary School treatment by the Dodgers, who all but took a backhoe to the mound while ruthlessly forcing Carlos Martinez out of the game in the first inning. 

The Redbirds were buried on the scoreboard that showed Dodgers 10, Cardinals 1 after one inning of shock and awe. 

THE OVERVIEW: The Cardinals flew home from a 10-game road trip with a 5-5 record. But in line with their season, the Cards went 2-4 against the good teams (White Sox and Dodgers) and 3-1 against the crummy opponent, Arizona. 

At 31-25 the Cardinals also came home in second place in the NL Central, 1.5 games behind the division-leading Cubs.  The Cubbies are 14-3 in their last 17 games, outsourcing opponents by 44 runs over the course of the hot streak. 

QUICK NOTE ON EL GALLO: In his start before Wednesday’s cataclysm, Carlos Martinez gave up three hits and three runs without retiring a Diamondback in the bottom of the 7th. 

So if you take that mini-collapse and put it with the Dodgerific first-inning trouncing, this is what you get: two-thirds of an inning, nine hits, four walks and 13 earned runs. That’s an ERA of … well … forget about it. My calculator broke. 

CARDS VS. GOOD TEAMS, A CLOSER LOOK: Yes my friends I have an expanded, post-roadie update. The Cardinals are 23-11 against teams with losing records this season. But against teams over .500, they’ve gone 8-14. And that’s been a rather unpleasant experience. 

In the 22 games against the winning teams on the schedule — Mets, Padres, Brewers, Cubs and Dodgers — the Cards were outscored by a humongous margin 117 to 67. Sheesh. 

Seven of their 14 losses to the big fellas came by a margin of 4 or more runs. In three of the defeats the Cards were bullied for 10+ runs by the superior teams. 

The St. Louis hitters averaged 3.04 runs in the 22 games and batted .218. Opposing starting pitchers had a 2.24 ERA vs. the Cardinals. 

The St. Louis pitchers were slapped for a 4.95 earned-run average overall in the 22 games including a 5.00 ERA by the STL bullpen. 

You may be stunned to learn that walks have been an issue for the locals. In their 22 games against the winning teams the Cards pitchers walked 125 and hit 43 to give opponents a plump .375 onbase percentage. 

In the games against winning teams the Cardinals have a run differential of minus 50. 

In the games against losing teams, the Cards have a run differential of plus 40. 

It’s June 3. Many weeks and games to go and all of that stuff. But as we sit here today, do the Cardinals look like a team that can run with the big dogs? 

MONITORING THE OFFENSE: The Cardinals rank 8th in the NL with an average of 4.27 runs per game … they’re 6th with an average of 1.2 homers per game at a time when HRs are down overall in the majors … the Cards are tied for 11th in batting average (.230), 12th in OBP (.302), 6th in slugging (.393), 10th in OPS (.695.) 

MORE ABOUT THE BATTING AVERAGE: As an entity MLB teams are hitting .236 this season and could be headed for a historic low. So keep that in mind when I relay this info. But since 1900 the only Cardinals team to bat less than .230 in a season was the 1908 squad, which hit .223. But again, it’s important to keep that in context. 

THE CARDINALS HAVE AN ONBASE PERCENTAGE PROBLEM: It’s an increasingly difficult challenge to score runs in a 2021 MLB season of depressed offense. But one way to enhance your chance of scoring runs is by pumping up your onbase percentage. Draw more walks to go with the rising number of batters hit by a pitch. But the Cards’ .302 OBP is 22nd overall, 12th in the NL and 10 points under the MLB average. And that .302 OBP would be the ninth lowest by a Cardinals team since 1900. 

A significant factor in this is a walk rate that continues to go down. The team’s walk rate since the end of April is 7.9%, which ranks 23rd in the majors over that time. 

And the Cardinals are at a noticeable disadvantage in the OBP game. And that matters. 

The Cardinals have walked 167 times. Their opponents have walked 255 times. The Cardinals have been hit by a pitch 29 times to their opponents’ count of 40 HBP. Add it all up, and opponents have gotten on base 99 times more than the Cardinals have in combined walks and hit batters. 

That’s part of the reason why the Cardinals have a low .302 OBP. And the STL pitching staff’s lack of control has led to an opponent .335 OBP, tied for third-highest against any MLB staff. 

When you are reaching base 33 percent less often than the teams you’re playing against — well, good luck trying to score more runs than your opponents do. And in a related note, the Cardinals have a minus 10 run differential for the season. 

RUN-PREVENTION INSPECTION: The Cardinals are allowing 4.45 runs per game, and that includes the unearned runs that are part of the run-prevention formula. That 4.45 ranks 9th in the NL. The last three times they’ve qualified for the postseason, the Cardinals ranked 1st in the NL in run prevention in 2015 (3.24), 2nd in 2019 (4.09) and 2nd last year  (3.95.) 

The trend is drifting in the wrong direction. In winning 23 of their first 38 contests the Cardinals gave up 3.8 runs per game. In losing 10 of their last 18 games the Cards have yielded an average of 5.9 runs. 

Since May 14 the Cardinals rank 26th among 30 MLB teams with a staff earned-run average of 5.37. 

THE FEISTY, SWAGGY, FLEXIN’ CINCINNATI REDS ARE IN TOWN: Here are a few things you should know about a spirited rival that comes to town with a 24-29 record, seven games behind the first-place Cubs: 

— After a 6-1 start to the season the Reds are 18-28 since April 10 and have a 5.22 ERA over that stretch with an OK average of 4.3 runs scored per game. 

— Reds hitters average 3.8 runs in road games, and 6.0 runs at home. Their home slugging percentage is .486 — which isn 123 points higher than their road slug. The road OPS (.663) doesn’t compare to their home OPS (.832.) 

— In runs created adjusted for league and park effects, the Cincinnati offense is 22 percent above league average at home, and 16% below average on the road. 

— The Reds have the poorest overall ERA (5.04) in the majors. That includes a 4.51 rotation ERA (21st), and the worst 5.71 bullpen among the 30 teams. They were much stronger last season with relievers Archie Bradley and Raisel Iglesias. But as part of a major payroll slashing, Iglesias was traded to the Angels and the Reds declined to offer a contract to Bradley, who signed with Philadelphia. 

— The Reds bullpen has a walk rate of 12.7 percent, third worst in the majors behind St. Louis and Kansas City. The anticipated closer, LH Amir Garrett, is having a brutal season with a 9.56 ERA, an opponent slugging percentage of .689 and a walk rate of 16.2 percent. But RH Tejay Antone has been outstanding with a 1.61 ERA and 36% strikeout rate.

— Two of the franchise cornerstones are enduring the struggle of an unexpectedly off-form performance. No. 1 starter Luis Castillo is 1-8 with a 7.22 ERA, and shortstop Eugenio Suarez is batting .162 with a .614 OPS and 32% strikeout rate. (But he does have 12 homers.) 

— There is strength and quality in this Reds rotation. Many teams would like to have a trio as good as Sonny Gray (3.64 ERA), Wade Miley (3.26) and Tyler Mahle (3.42.) 

— Outfielders Nicholas Castellanos and Jesse Winker are having outstanding seasons and rate among the best and most dangerous hitters in the majors. Castellanos is hitting .361 with a .416 OBP and .644 slug. Winker is hitting .341 with a .403 OBP and .621 slug. They’ve combined for 25 homers, 26 doubles and 60 RBIs. Using park and league adjusted runs created, Castellanos is 85 percent above the league average offensively; Winker is 75% above league average. 

— Outfielder Tyler Naquin is delivering a robust performance at a low salary, providing 11 homers, 37 RBIs and a .497 slug. 

— As of Wednesday, the Reds had several key pieces out of action and on the IL: first baseman Joey Votto, third baseman Mike Moustakas, center fielder Nick Senzel, utility man Max Schrock and starting pitcher Jeff Hoffman. 

— The Reds are 23rd in the majors with minus 4 defensive runs saved. They’ve mostly been terrible at running the bases; they have a net baserunning gain of minus 15 according to BillJamesOnline. 

— Cincinnati’s scheduled starting pitchers for the four-game series at Busch Stadium are, in order: rookie Vladimir Gutierrez,  Castillo, Mahle, and Miley.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie 

Please check out Bernie’s sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen live online and download the Bernie Show podcast at 590thefan.com  … the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store. 

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