Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Pros And Cons Of Trading Cardinals Starting Pitcher Sonny Gray.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

As the Cardinals prepare to enter an overdue rebuilding project of some degree, we’re waiting to see if they will (or can) move some of their more expensive talent that could generate interest from other teams. I’m taking a case-by-case look at potential trade candidates on the St. Louis roster.

I began with closer Ryan Helsley.

Today …

SONNY GRAY

The Overview: Gray is good. Very good, except for one notable and unsightly blotch on his 2024 performance file in his season as a Cardinal. Gray has been among the best starting pitchers in the majors over the last two seasons – this is a fact, not an opinion – but he’ll turn 35 years old on Nov. 7 and has two seasons and a stack of guaranteed money remaining on the three-year contract he signed last winter. Gray also has the final word on any trade that involves him. The Cardinals can afford to keep Gray. But given where the Redbirds stand now, as they begin to transition, are they better off by moving Gray to pick up a couple of premium prospects and a veteran to fill a need? And how does Gray feel about a relocation? He wanted to be here, and that’s why he turned down other offers to sign on with St. Louis.

Why Trade Sonny Gray? Many teams, including contenders, need a quality starting pitcher … or maybe even two. If Gray doesn’t object to being traded – and he has full no-trade protection in his contract – the Cardinals would be in position to add premium young talent that fits their plan to reset, rebuild, or whatever the heck you want to call it.

In 2024, Gray ranked seventh among 57 innings-qualified MLB starters with a 3.12 fielding-independent ERA. His 30.3 percent strikeout rate was tied with Tarik Skubal for second-best in the majors behind MLB leader Chris Sale. Gray also limited walks and kept the traffic down; the batting average and onbase percentage against him last season were .228 and .275 respectively. Only 12 starting pitchers had more value (via WAR) than Gray.

The one real negative: Gray was uncharacteristically weak on the road this season, getting punished for 16 home runs in 12 starts. Among 68 starters that pitched at least 72 road innings this season, Gray ranked 65th in ERA (5.20), 65th in opponent slugging percentage (.509), and 65th in home runs yielded (2.0) per nine innings. Gray’s performance was fantastic at Busch Stadium, which favors pitchers. His road woes were likely an outlier; from 2013 through 2023 Gray had a 3.47 ERA in away games over 1,570 innings.

The Cards are downshifting. They are willing to take a couple of steps back (at least) if it means they’ll be more capable of going forward faster. And with a younger, more athletic, more capable roster that fits into their intelligent quest for enhanced payroll efficiency. The market for Gray would be strong. And the time to go get him from the Cardinals is now – in advance of 2025. If an interested team waits, Gray will only grow older and increasingly vulnerable to injury.

Any team that pursues Gray should make the move, knowing that they’d have him for two seasons instead of one. And the Cardinals would command more of a return by trading Gray while he has two full years of contract control as opposed to doing it later, when he loses value. As a trade asset, Gray’s peak value starts now. This doesn’t mean the Cardinals couldn’t make a good deal by offering Gray at the 2025 trading deadline. But suppose he gets injured before then?

And from Gray’s standpoint, he would undoubtedly like to have several options presented to him for consideration before he makes a decision on waiving his no-trade control. And the Cardinals presumably would have more options to place on Gray’s table because a larger number of pitching-shopping teams would be interested in the opportunity to secure him for two full seasons instead of a lesser amount of service time. For Gray – and the Cardinals – having several options to choose from is preferable to being backed into a corner with a more limited set of choices if trade talks heat up.

Why Keep Sonny Gray? If the Cardinals want to remain respectable while undergoing through their roster renovation, Gray could provide stability and leadership. Despite having one of the worst offenses in the majors, the Cardinals went 17-11 in Gray’s starts and were six games below average in their other 134 games.

And by staying the course with Gray, the Cardinals would send a message to fans: we’re not tanking. We’re not trading talented players just to save money. We’ll probably have some tough times ahead, but we aren’t going to just give up.

And make no mistake, the Cardinals would save money by moving Gray and his contract. Including a $5 million buyout in 2027, St. Louis owes Gray $65 million guaranteed over the next two years. That’s an average of $32.5 million per season.

A Stat That Shows Gray’s Value: Over the last two seasons – which includes his 2023 campaign for the Twins – Gray had the best fielding-independent ERA (2.97) among 46 major-league starters that supplied at least 300 innings over that time.

On top of that, only two big-league starters – Zack Wheeler and Logan Webb – have more WAR than Gray (9.2) during the last two seasons. Gray ranks fifth among the 46 starters in strikeout rate and Win Probability Added (WPA) since the start of 2023. I’m not sure why some Cardinal fans label Gray as an “average” starter.

Based on the total starting-pitching ERA across the majors since 2023, an “average” earned-run average would be 4.30. Gray’s ERA is 3.29 over the past two seasons; that’s sixth best in the bigs over that period. “Average” or “slightly below average” would describe Kyle Gibson or Mitch Keller.

Fun Fact: Gray’s 30.3 percent strikeout rate in his first season as a Cardinal was the highest by a starting pitcher in franchise history among those who pitched at least 100 innings in a season.

Here are the top five single-season strikeout rates – ever – by a Cards starting pitcher, minimum 100 IP:

1. Sonny Gray, 30.3%, 2024
2. Jack Flaherty, 29.9%, 2019
3. Jack Flaherty, 29.6%, 2018
4. Rick Ankiel, 26.4, 2000
5. Carlos Martinez, 25.3%, 2017

In case you’re wondering, the highest strikeout rate for the immortal Bob Gibson in a season was 23.1 percent in 1968, when Gibby posted a preposterous MLB record 1.12 ERA over 34 starts.

Important To Keep In Mind: I’ll go with several things here …

– Gray can end all of trade speculation just by using a two-letter word when Cardinals president of baseball operation John Mozeliak gives him a call to check the temperature. Gray can say “N-O” for no.

– Related question: would Gray be willing to move on if his prospective new team agrees to sweeten his contract?

– A big reason for Gray’s motivation to sign with St. Louis was the city’s proximity to his family home in Nashville. The distance between STL and NASH is 309 miles for an estimated drive time of 4 hours, 45 minutes. There are a couple of teams that are closer to his home. Cincinnati is 273 miles from Nashville, with an estimated drive time of 4 hours, 11 minutes. Atlanta is 250 miles from Nashville, with an estimated drive time of 4 hours, 28 minutes.

– If winning is a top priority for Gray, he could decide to waive the no-trade clause to go to any number of places including Baltimore, Atlanta, or Cincinnati. That’s just three. There could be more. Gray pitched in Cincinnati for three seasons and seemed to enjoy it, the Reds are loaded with young talent, and future Hall of Famer Terry Francona is the new manager.

– Do we trust Mozeliak to “win” any trade between the Cardinals and a Gray-seeking franchise?

– If Gray consents to a trade, would the Cardinals offer to absorb some of his contract cost if it means receiving more talent in a trade package?

– Of course, the likelihood of a Gray trade will largely depend on what other teams offer for him. If the Redbirds move Gray along for a so-so deal just to save money, the blatant salary dump would absolutely infuriate an agitated fan base that doesn’t trust ownership and management. The entire reason for dealing Gray should be based on the procurement of premium talent that the Cardinals can put in place (sooner or later) to be part of a more positive future.

Final Thoughts: If Gray agrees to a trade, the Cardinals would (a) save payroll space that could be better utilized when the franchise is on the cusp of winning at a high level. If Gray is moved the Cardinals (b) can open a rotation slot for one of several young starters that include Quinn Mathews, Michael McGreevy and Tink Hence. And other young arms could be ready to arrive ahead of schedule.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.