THE REDBIRD REVIEW
Bases loaded, one out, Cardinals down by a run, with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Gorman coming up. And you know what happened next – because of course it did.
Goldy, strikeout.
Gorman, strikeout.
Goodnight from Busch Stadium.
On the same day the confusing and confusing Cardinals demoted Jordan Walker to Triple A Memphis, they demoted themselves into third place in the NL Central with a 3-2 loss to the Brewers.
On the same day Walker was sent in circles again – St. Louis-Memphis, St. Louis-Memphis, St. Louis-Memphis – the Cardinals circled the drain as another season slowly drips into the underside.
And now Walker will have some company down in Memphis town.
The Cardinals demoted Gorman on Wednesday.
The beat goes on … and so do the beatdowns.
The Cardinals are slip-sliding away at 61-64. They’re a joyless 1-7 in their last eight games. As the energy wanes, the Redbirds have won just five of 17 games in August. They’ve come out with only 13 wins in the 35 games since July 10 for a .371 winning percentage. That ranks 29th overall, with only the execrable White Sox floating below them in the gutter.
If you watched Tuesday’s game at Busch Stadium – either there or on TV – you saw a small crowd that weakened in numbers as the night dragged on. In this ballpark, misery does not have much company.
The offense is close to bankruptcy. The stadium is a haunted house. Fans must subside on the memories of a dimmed glory. It’s sad because this was the extraordinary place where Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Tony La Russa, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jim Edmonds, Matt Holliday, Scott Rolen and other legends roamed to hunt championships in big October games.
And now? The sea of red is a sea of dread. Strikeout by Goldy. Strikeout by Gorman. Another strikeout for the franchise. Another deflating defeat. One hard blow after another, choking the enthusiasm.
St. Louis ownership and management still try to market nostalgia, pushing the past, hoping to reconnect to hearts that were so in love with this franchise. But this is a difficult sales pitch now. The worn-down fan base is more inclined to shelter at home or retreat to the Busch Stadium exits. They no longer believe in this baseball promised land. Cardinal Nation is colder now.
This a boring team. It has no real stars. It has no plan, no personality, no purpose. There is no reason to have confidence in the front-office operation, and we just don’t know where this doddering team is going in the future.
Watching Tuesday’s presentation, I sat back in my chair and wondered about something out loud – talking to myself in a darkened living room. I thought of chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak.
Do they realize what they have done?
Do they see all of the empty seats?
Do they realize that they controlled something precious and wonderful, something that made so many people happy – and let it slip away?
Do they feel remorse?
Do they understand the damage that’s been done to their bond with a passionate fan base in a great baseball town?
Why did it have to come to this?
Here’s to better days, my friends. I just wish I could tell you when the good times will return.
ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Cardinals trail the division-kingpin Brewers by 12 games … the Cubs (62-64) have nudged past St. Louis and into second place, a half–game above the Redbirds … the Cardinals are 6 games out of the third wild-card spot, currently held by the Braves. Not only do the Cardinals have to chase down the Braves, but they must also move ahead of the teams that are closer in the wild-card standings: Cubs, Giants and Mets. And the Cardinals must hold off the Reds (61-65) and Pirates (59-66).
The FanGraphs playoff odds give the Cardinals a 2.0 percent chance of landing in a wild card spot … the Cardinals are 1-7 against the Brewers this season and have a 17-23 record against their division rivals … since the start of last season the Cardinals are 38-54 against the Brewers, Cubs, Reds and Pirates for a grotesque .413 winning percentage in NL Central games … the Cardinals have a 67-76 record (.468) at Busch Stadium since the start of the 2023 season … the Redbirds have a minus 28 run differential while going 5-12 so far in August.
ERICK FEDDE, UNDERWHELMING: He wasn’t the reason why the Cardinals lost Tuesday’s game. The right-hander lasted 5 and ⅔ innings and yielded two runs. With a better offense, Fedde’s outing could have ended up on the winning side. That said, Fedde walked four of his 24 batters faced (16.6%) and that inflated his pitch count to 95. In four starts since coming to STL from the White Sox at the trading deadline, Fedde has a 4.98 ERA and the Cardinals are 1-3 in his assignments.
St. Louis starting pitchers rank 28th in August with a 5.53 ERA and have only four quality starts in 17 games. The Cards starters have a 5.08 ERA during the team’s 13-22 crash that began July 10.
STATE OF THE ST. LOUIS OFFENSE
1. In losing seven of their last eight games, the Cardinals have averaged 2.6 runs per game, hit .221 overall, and batted .167 with a 32.7% strikeout rate with runners in scoring position. The Cards have scored three or fewer runs in six of the last eight games.
2. In August the Cardinals are last in the majors in batting average (.151), onbase percentage (.239), and slugging rate (.185) with runners in scoring position. In a related note the Cards have only 25 RBIs with runners in scoring position this month; 13 major-league teams have at least twice as many as that this month.
3. This month Alec Burleson, Willson Contreras, Masyn Winn, Tommy Pham, Paul Goldschmidt, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar and Victor Scott have combined for 9 hits in 92 at-bats (.098) with runners in scoring position. I’m sort of speechless.
4. The St. Louis offense is dormant this season for many reasons but this stat really screams at me: in 287 combined plate appearances with runners in scoring position in 2024, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman and Lars Nootbaar have collectively batted .165 with a 32% strikeout rate. Horrendous.
5. Among 287 hitters that have at least 60 plate appearances with runners in scoring position this season, Goldschmidt, Gorman and Nootbaar are each ranked in the bottom seven in batting average. And their strikeout-totals rankings are nearly as bad.
NOLAN ARENADO STAT OF THE DAY: With the home-run explosiveness receding in his age 33 season, it got me to thinking about … singles. Not exactly a scoop, but Arenado is hitting a lot of ’em in 2024. Going into Wednesday, Arenado’s 89 singles were tied for 10th most among major-league hitters. OK, let’s take another step with this.
The percentage of Arenado’s total hits that were singles in his four seasons as a Cardinal:
2021: 53%, age 30
2022: 55.2%, age 31
2023: 63.7%, age 32
2024: 74%, age 33
I have nothing to add.
DYLAN CARLSON STAT OF THE DAY: In August the former St. Louis outfielder has done very well for Tampa Bay, batting .286 with a .375 onbase percentage, .524 slug and .899 OPS. Carlson also has three homers and nine RBIs.
I put my strangely curious mind to work to see how Carlson’s August numbers compare to the numbers posted by St. Louis lineup regulars this month.
Batting average: the only Redbirds with a higher average than Carlson’s .286 this month are Brendan Donovan and Nolan Arenado.
Onbase percentage: Carlson’s .375 OBP is better than any St. Louis regular.
Slugging percentage: Carlson’s .524 slug is higher than any Cardinal regular.
Onbase + slugging: Carlson’s .899 OPS is superior to that of any STL regular.
Home runs: Carlson has three. That’s one fewer than Masyn Winn (4) and as many as Goldschmidt (3) and Burleson (3). This month Carlson has more home runs than everyone else including Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Tommy Pham, Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan and Victor Scott II.
RBIs: Carlson has nine; the only Cardinal with more than that this month is Arenado with 10.
And since I’m mentioning former Cardinals: Burleson leads the team with 21 home runs this season. Paul DeJong has 21, and Tyler O’Neill has launched 22.
NOTES ON A SCORECARD
– In his last 15 games, Goldschmidt is batting .151 with a .237 OBP, .302 slug and has grounded into four double plays.
– Tommy Pham is 1 for 21 with seven strikeouts in his last eight games.
– In his first two games for the Dodgers, Tommy Edman went 2 for 7 with a double, run scored, and two strikeouts.
– Matt Carpenter has done a fine job as a bench guy for the Cardinals this season. There’s nothing wrong with a .261 batting average, .336 onbase percentage, .414 slug and .750 OPS. His OPS+ is nine percent above the league average.
– Carpenter’s two-run pinch homer in the eighth inning cut Milwaukee’s lead to 3-2 and gave the Cardinals a chance for a comeback win. In the first seven innings Tuesday, the Cardinals went 1 for 22 with a walk and did not have a plate appearance with a runner in scoring position. Brewers starter Frankie Montas pitched seven shutout innings.
– Since making his season debut on July 28, St. Louisan Devin Williams is as nasty as ever despite missing several months with a back injury. The Cardinals gave Williams a fight in the ninth Tuesday, getting two hits and receiving an intentional walk to load the bases. Williams powered his way through the threat with the consecutive punch-outs of Goldschmidt and Gorman for his fifth save. In eight appearances since making it back, Williams has a 1.13 ERA with a 45 percent strikeout rate.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.
Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link:
https://www.youtube.com/@TheBernieShow
Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb
For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.
Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.
For the last 36 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.
