Bernie’s Redbird Review: The State Of The Cardinals, Leading Into The MLB Trade Deadline.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

After losing two of three games to the Pirates, the Cardinals migrated home with a 3-3 record on their trip to Atlanta and Pittsburgh. Won a series. Lost a series. And so it goes.

How good are the Cardinals? I think it depends on your personal perspective and how you feel about their hot streak, now that they’ve simmered down.

Are the Redbirds still the emergent team that whirred to a 33-18 record (.647) during an upbeat turn that began May 12? Or do the Cardinals more closely resemble the group that’s gone 5-7 in 12 games since July 10? Maybe it’s a little of both.

As a preliminary, let me say the Cardinals play good defense and run the bases pretty well — but could do it better. With that out of the way, here’s an updated inspection of the team’s three primary areas and how the state of the roster could influence front-office strategy before Tuesday afternoon’s MLB trading deadline …

THE BULLPEN: STILL STRONG, BUT SOME CONCERN. The team strength is a bullpen that’s sharpened the edge for a Cardinal advantage in tight, suspenseful duels that spin into the late innings. The ERA is outstanding, the save percentage is high, the ability to protect leads after the seventh and eighth innings is terrific. The bullpen value is reflected by its overall ranking (No. 3) in Win Probability Added.

But there could be trouble if the front office doesn’t augment the bullpen with a powerful addition before the trade deadline. Simply stated, there’s a need for more swing-and-miss authority and strikeouts.

My reason for the warning? Through June 9 of this season, the St. Louis bullpen ranked 12th in the majors with a 23.6 percent strikeout rate. But that’s been slipping.

We don’t see any panic-worthy signs in a bottom-line bullpen ERA of 3.39 that ranks fourth overall and second in the NL. But I like to look under the hood for stats that might tell us something … and in this case, some underlying factors are concerning.

Here’s what I’m referring to …

Since June 10, the STL bullpen has the lowest strikeout rate (18.4%) in the majors. The swing-miss voltage and strikeout-wipeout stuff has dropped. The increased contact means more batted balls and the risk of a higher batting average and slugging percentage by opponents. That hasn’t happened yet, but it’s something to monitor.

The team’s decrease in strikeouts isn’t surprising.

Here’s a look at a few key guys, and their strikeout rates before and after June 9 …

• JoJo Romero: 26.2% … 4.7%
• Ryan Fernandez: 26% … 21%
• Andrew Kittredge: 25.0% … 21.6%
• Chris Roycroft, 27.3% … 16.7%
• Giovanny Gallegos: 27% … 10.5%
• Matthew Liberatore: 20% … 13.6%

THE OFFENSE: STILL MEDIOCRE AND COULD GET WORSE. The St. Louis offense ranks 23rd in runs per game (.410), 20th in slugging (.388) and 22nd in home runs per contest. Timely hitting is still a negative, as the Cardinals rank 26th in batting average (.230) and 29th in slugging percentage (.337) and last in homers (17) when hitting with runners in scoring position.

Too many of the STL home runs are solo shots. There aren’t enough three-run homers. The reduced power displayed by Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado isn’t just a fluke or a phase or a little slump.

I’ve been writing about this for weeks, but let’s go back to it: the Cardinals are absolutely pathetic against left-handed pitching. Reasons? The Goldy-Arenado downturns, the frustrating inconsistency of Nolan Gorman, the unexpected second-year flop of Jordan Walker and a limited bench that has two below-average left-handed bats and insufficient right-handed clout.

Against LH pitching, the Cardinals are 29th in all of the relevant categories: batting average (.223), onbase rate (.288), slugging (.335), OPS (.623) and a wRC+ that’s 22 percent below league average offensively.

Left-handed starters have a 3.65 ERA when facing the Cardinals. Left-handed relievers have a 2.73 ERA in working against STL hitters. The Cards hit .204 with runners in scoring position vs. lefty starters and .200 RISP vs. lefty relievers. UGH.

Left-handed pitching cuts the St. Louis power line, with Cardinal hitters going an average of 50.3 at-bats between home runs against lefties.

Based on wRC+ the Cardinals as a team are seven percent above league average offensively when facing right-handed pitching. That’s good enough to rank 10th among the 30 teams, so there’s a positive. Left-swinging bats Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar have performed well above average against RH pitchers, and Gorman has blasted righties for 15 homers and a .445 slug.

Here’s the disappointing thing: it’s logical to assume that the Cardinals’ right-handed hitters are winning their matchups against lefty throwers. But that isn’t true. The team’s RH bats are 10 percent below league average offensively (per wRC+) in confrontations against lefties. Their slash line is an abysmal .234/.308/.354. Only one right-handed swinging Cardinal, Willson Contreras, has dominated LHP this season.

And this is where we need to take a closer look at Goldschmidt and Arenado to identify their role in the team’s deflated offense against lefthanders.

+ Goldschmidt is around 20 percent above average against lefties this season, with a profile that includes a .404 slugging percentage. That looks OK but isn’t close to what he used to do. From 2012 through 2022, Goldy destroyed LH pitchers for a .619 slugging percentage, and his wRC+ was 78 percent above average. Over the last two seasons he’s 22% above the standard. A net positive, yes. But a steep drop from where he once stood in a matchup against lefties.

+ Arenado is struggling at 19 percent below league average vs. LHP this season. From 2013 through 2022, Arenado whomped lefties for a .602 slugging percentage and was 45 percent above league average against them per wRC+. But since the start of 2023, Arenado has slugged .387 vs. lefties and is 23 percent below league average when facing them.

The Pittsburgh series aside, the offense has generally improved in July. But please refrain from hyperventilating. If there’s a desire to improve the team’s splits against left-handed pitchers, I can’t imagine why the STL front office would choose to go forward with this same collection of talent.

STARTING PITCHING: SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. That’s how I would describe the St. Louis rotation. It’s clearly better than the bedraggled Cardinals rotation that was pancaked through the 2023 season. That said, we tend to overrate the quality of their performance in the 2024 context.

For the season the team’s starting-pitching ERA ranks 22nd (4.40) and is trending down. Over the last 32 games the STL starters have a 5.01 ERA, but at least they’re doing a solid job of starts that go 6+ innings, ranking tied for ninth in the majors in those “deeper” starts since June 17. And they’re tied for 10th with 13 quality starts over that time.

That’s why I went with the “middle” designation. The starting pitching isn’t bad, and it isn’t great. Their 2024 rotation ERA is below the league average, and the fielding-independent rotation ERA is right at average. But to be fair, this rotation is on the plus side among MLB teams for total innings (ranking 11th), quality starts (14th) and the volume of starts that last six innings or more (10th.)

The starting-pitching structure has definitely improved from 2023. But as currently constructed, this rotation is an unlikely team strength should the Cardinals make the playoffs. And considering the vulnerable depth, an injury or two could be devastating. None of their best starting-pitching pitching prospects are deemed ready for the show.

And I’m sorry, but I don’t want to hear anything about Steven Matz returning from the injured list. The Cardinals can’t count on him. Since signing a four-year, $44 million free-agent deal before the 2022 season, Matz has averaged 61 innings pitched per year. And he’s spent 245 days on the IL.

The front office is in a position to make the Cardinals stronger and better to prepare for a vigorous stretch run. But will they do a meaningful roster renovation or settle for slapping a coat of paint on it?

Let’s move on …

STANDINGS CHECK: Wednesday was not a good day for the Cardinals. Their no-show 5-0 loss at Pittsburgh, combined with Milwaukee winning at Wrigley Field, left the Cardinals 6.0 games behind the first-place Brewers in the NL Central. The Cardinals haven’t trailed the Brewers by a full six games since July 4. In addition …

* The Pirates (52-50) are a game behind the second-place Cardinals in the NL Central. The Bucs are dangerous because of their starting pitching and an improving bullpen. Pittsburgh is 10-3 in its last 13 games, with series victories over the Brewers, Phillies and Cardinals during the stretch.

* The Mets beat up on the Yankees again and have gone 11-4 in their last 15 games. New York has jumped ahead of the Cardinals – by a half-game – for the NL’s No. 2 wild-card ticket.

* The Padres and Cardinals are essentially tied for the No. 3 wild card, though technically the Cardinals are ahead because the winning percentage (.520) is a point higher than San Diego’s .519.

* As for the third wild card, the Diamondbacks are just a half-game behind the Cardinals and Padres. The Pirates are a game behind the Cardinals and Padres. Next in line are the Reds (49-53) who trail STL and San Diego by four games. The Giants are within range and trail the Cards-Padres by 4 and ½.

NL WILD-CARD PROBABILITIES: Let’s put the three division leaders (Phils, Dodgers, Brewers) aside and focus on the current FanGraphs odds for securing one of the three wild-card spots. Here they are, in order of probability, and I’ll limit the list to the top seven in the chase:

• Braves, 74.3%
• Mets, 49.1%
• Padres, 46.7%
• Diamondbacks, 41.2%
• Cardinals, 25%
• Pirates, 15.5%
• Giants, 14.4%

And finally, here are the respective strength of remaining schedules for the seven teams listed above. I’ll go from toughest to easiest, placed in order of remaining opponents’ winning percentage:

• Cardinals, .512 … 3rd in NL
• Pirates, .511 … 4th in NL
• D-backs, .510 … 5th in NL
• Braves, .496 … tied for 6th in NL
• Mets, .496 … tied for 6th in NL
• Padres, .484 … tied for 14th in NL
• Giants, .484 … tied for 14th in NL

Given all of that information, the work done by each team’s front office between now and the deadline will likely impact this crazy wild-card steeplechase and how it plays out. If remaining schedules matter, the Cardinals aren’t in a favorable spot. Obviously, that can change — a lot — for all wild-card hopefuls over the remaining weeks of the regular season.

ABOUT THE ST. LOUIS SCHEDULE: In theory, based on the quality of the upcoming opponents, the Cardinals have a chance to do pretty well over the next block of 19 games.

I’ll list each series and put the opponent’s overall winning-percentage ranking (in parenthesis) among the 30 MLB teams.

• 3 home vs. Nationals (24)
• 3 home vs. Rangers (19)
• 4 at Cubs (23)
• 1 home vs. Mets (11)
• 3 home vs. Rays (18)
• 2 at Royals (8)
• 3 at Reds (21)

For context, the Cardinals are four games above .500 and rank 13th overall in winning percentage. Over their next 19 games, the Redbirds will have only six contests against teams that are either at .500 (Tampa Bay) or above .500 (Mets, Royals.)

OK, so what about the next 19 games after that?

Buckle up, because the schedule brings a stack of games against the Dodgers (3), Brewers (3), Twins (3), Padres (4), Yankees (3) and Mariners (3).

From Aug. 16 through Sept. 8, the six St. Louis opponents all have winning records right now. And all six are in legitimate postseason contention.

If the playoffs began today, four of the six would be in the tournament. But the other two – San Diego and Seattle – are right there. As mentioned, the Cardinals and Padres are essentially tied for the third wild-card spot right now … and the Mariners are only one game out first place in the AL West and 3 and ½ games out of a wild-card berth.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.