THE REDBIRD REVIEW
What would you say about a major-league baseball team that is …
+ 23rd overall and 11th in the NL with a minus 46 run differential.
+ 24th overall and 14th in the NL, in runs scored per game.
+ 21st overall and 11th in the NL, in runs allowed per game.
+ 22nd overall and 11th in the NL, in starting-pitching ERA.
+ 18th overall and 11th in the NL, in bullpen ERA since the All-Star break. And it is a team that has as many blown saves (5) as saves (5) since the break.
I could go on, but what’s the point?
OK, what would you say about a team that has this profile?
The forever-faithful description: this team may not be the best, but it’s a big part of my life, and I will continue to support them, no matter what, even if they disappoint me. It’s our baseball family.
The polite description: gee, sure, they’re frustrating, but earlier this season they went 33-18 over a 51-game stretch so we know they are capable of making a run into the playoffs.
The Bally Sports Midwest description: everything is swell, plenty of good seats are available, the weather is great, so come on down to the ballpark and have a good time. Our boys are about to turn it around. Can you feel it! Here come the Cardinals!
The pragmatic description: there are some things to like about this team, and they are certainly better than last year. But there are just too many flaws to overlook, and we have to be realistic about the situation: they aren’t very good, and they won’t be around when the playoffs start.
The social sports-fan description: They’re disappointing, OK, but I like them, and I really enjoy going to the ballpark for food and beverages and laughs.
The Roger Daltrey description: Won’t get fooled again! Not buying any more tickets.
Soprano description: Playoffs? Forget about it.
Curt description: below-average team. Period. That’s all.
Simple description: mediocre.
The blunt opinion: They stink! Fire everyone!
The both-sides, yo-yo description: They’re not exactly awful, but they’re not exactly good. Could be better, could be worse. They’re not successful right now, but they’ve been successful for a long time.
The Roberto Duran description: No mas!
The wide-reaching, forward-looking description: making changes is long overdue, there are too many problems to fix, this isn’t the front office to do it, so clear it out and start fresh with a new regime in baseball management.
The good housekeeping description: time to clean house!
The Springsteen description: darkness on the edge of town.
Two-word description: DeWitt’s fault.
The team we’re talking about here is … well, you know who it is.
In the words of the late Texas songwriter Blaze Foley: “I’m tired of running around looking for answers to questions that I already know.”
On Thursday, the St. Louis Cardinals blew a 4-2 lead, lost to Tampa Bay, and failed to complete a three-game streak. The Redbirds lost ground in the NL Central division, lost ground in the wild-card stakes, and left many fans ticked off despite winning two of the three games from the Rays.
By now, we are used to this. Nothing should come as a surprise. But …
What I don’t understand – and this absolutely applies to me – is why we continue to talk ourselves into these happy scenarios …
The Cardinals catching up to the first-place Brewers …
The Cardinals getting on a roll, to sweep into a wild-card spot …
The offense getting hot …
And so on. I do this myself, so I’m not making fun or criticizing anyone else for having such absurd thoughts. I’ll just repeat something I said late Thursday night while interacting with Cardinals fans on X after an especially frustrating loss by the home team:
“Meanwhile, the Brewers went to Atlanta and dropped 31 runs on the Braves in a three-game sweep. I keep taking myself into thinking it’s possible for the Cardinals to catch Milwaukee. I need to make better use of my brain … what’s left of it.”
That pretty much sums up my thoughts about now.
ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Cardinals are 59-57, with 46 games to go in their regular-season schedule … the Redbirds are 3-5 in August … after going 50-46 before the All-Star break, St. Louis is 9-11 in the second half for a .450 winning percentage that ranks 10th in the National League … the Cards are 7-10 in their last 17 games, 11-15 since July 10, and 18-19 since June 27 … the Cardinals were 15-24 on May 11 before winning 33 of their next 51 games, and they’re 11-15 since the hot streak ended. Other than the positive run of success over the 51 games, St. Louis is 26-39 (.400) in the other 65 games.
STANDINGS CHECK: The second-place Cardinals trail division-leading Milwaukee by seven games … the top three wild cards in order: Padres, Diamondbacks, Mets. After that, the Braves are a half-game behind the Mets, followed by the Cardinals (minus 2 and ½) and Giants (minus 3).
DAILY PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT: According to Fangraphs, the Cardinals have a 5.9 percent prospect of winning the division and are 8.5 percent likely to claim a wild-card prize at Rob Manfred’s carnival. STL’s overall postseason probability (14.4%) ranks ninth among the 15 NL teams.
COFFEE’S FOR CLOSERS: The Cardinals continue to fritter away chances to build a better record. This hadn’t happened for a while, but in failing to sweep the Rays the Cardinals are now 2-7 this season when having the chance to sweep in the final game of the series. And this isn’t relevant to Thursday’s loss, because St.Louis had already won the series vs. Tampa Bay. But when the Cardinals have had the opportunity to grab a series win by taking the final game of the series, they are 6-7 in such tests this season.
THE BULLPEN BLUES: I wrote about this Wednesday here on “Scoops,” so I can’t say I was surprised when the Cardinals yakked up a 4-2 lead in the seventh inning Thursday. Proud to serve as the town’s sports-media klaxon, I’ve been pointing to the weakening of the St. Louis bullpen.
After Kyle Gibson did his share to set up a winning evening for the Cardinals by allowing two runs in six innings. Going into the top of the seventh, the Rays had a win probability of only 18 percent. But the first three STL relievers into the game – Kyle Leahy, JoJo Romero and Shawn Armstrong – collectively faced 12 batters in their 2 and ⅓ innings … and it didn’t go well. The three-reliever sequence was burned for four hits, a wall and four earned runs.
The worst and most debilitating moment was Romero getting bushwacked for a two-run homer by Brandon Lowe. The drive gave the Rays a 5-4 lead and increased their win probability to 67 percent. Manager Oli Marmol extended Armstrong into the ninth inning but he was pelted for a double and RBI single for a 6-4 lead and 95 percent win probability. Later on, lefty John King entered to book the final two outs.
BIG-PICTURE BULLPEN UPDATE: I gave you the basics the other day in this space, but let’s refresh the numbers to show the details of the decline.
Before the All-Star break … and after the All-Star break:
— Save percentage: 73% … 50%
— ERA: 3.50 (7th) … 4.57 (18th)
— Runners stranded: 73.7% (7th) … 65% (25th)
— Win Probability Added: ranked 3rd … ranked 23rd
— Fewest meltdowns: ranked 7th … ranked 22nd
— Most shutdowns: ranked 5th, ranked 17th
— Opponent slugging pct: .371 … .419
— HR allowed: 0.94 per 9 IP … 1.11 per 9 IP
The strikeout-walk ratio has slipped as well.
In the first half the Cardinals were 33-4 when leading a game through six innings. In only 20 games since the All-Star break, the Redbirds already have relinquished three leads through the sixth and lost the game.
SAME ‘OL ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The fellers scored all four runs in the first three innings Thursday. But over the final six innings the Cardinals went 5 for 22 (.227) with two walks and were 0 for 4 with runners in scoring position. Four of the five hits were singles. Tampa Bay relievers retired the final seven St. Louis hitters of the game, with the quick and easy work including Paul Goldschmidt’s double-play grounder with two runners on to end the seventh – and consecutive strikeouts by Nolan Gorman and Victor Scott to terminate the eighth.
Through the first eight games of August, the Cardinals rank 21st in the majors for runs, 22nd in batting average, 23rd in onbase percentage, 26th in slugging, and 26th in OPS. The Redbirds are 9 for 49 (.153) with runners in scoring position. For the season, per wRC+, the Cardinals are 19 percent below league average offensively with runners in scoring position. That ranks 29th in the majors and only the White Sox have done worse.
A FINE SERIES BY CARDS STARTERS: No complaints from me about the work of Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde and Kyle Gibson against Tampa Bay. They collectively allowed five earned runs in 18 innings for a 2.50 ERA. The three starters controlled the Rays hitters for a meager slash line of .232/.274/.333. The best part: the Rays went 1 for 21 (.048) against the three St. Louis starters with runners in scoring position. Gibson has a 3.28 ERA in his last four starts. Miles Mikolas and Andre Pallante are set to start the two games at Kansas City tonight and Saturday.
LAUGHABLY PREDICTABLE CARDINAL STAT: Since joining the Rays in the trade from St. Louis, outfielder Dylan Carlson is 4 for 17 (.286) with a double, homer, four RBIs and a 571 slug. And since that deal, St. Louis outfielder Lars Nootbaar is 2 for 18 (.111) with no extra base hits, no runs batted in, and a .111 slug.
MORE ON NOOT: In 19 games since the All-Star break, Nootbaar is batting .219 with a weak .314 slugging percentage and only three RBIs in 59 plate appearances. Nootbaar went 0 for 7 in the Tampa Bay series – including 0 for 4 with runners in scoring position. For the season, Nootbaar is 9 for 53 (.170) with RISP. Holy ravioli.
MORE ON RISP AWFULNESS: If you’ve wondered why the Cardinals are so hideously bad when batting with runners in scoring position, I submit this exhibit into evidence…
5 worst batting averages with RISP among regulars:
- Nolan Gorman, .167
- Lars Nootbaar, .170
- Paul Goldschmidt, .176
- Michael Siani, .177
- Willson Contreras, .208
Collective, the five hitters have a .178 batting average and 28 percent strikeout rate RISP. And that’s substantial because the five guys have 415 plate appearances with RISP between them – which is nearly 40 percent of the team total.
And the top option off the bench (Matt Carpenter) is batting .200 with runners in scoring position and has struck out an astounding 41.6 percent of the time in those situations.
JORDAN WALKER WATCH: He’s cooled off over the last two games for Triple A Memphis, going 2 for 9 with two strikeouts. I wanted to check on Walker’s overall batted-ball metrics at Triple A, via Statcast. On tracked pitches, Walker has a 43.6 percent hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph. Both are good. As for balls in play: ground balls 46 percent, line drives 23.4%, fly balls 23%, and pop-ups 7.6%. It’s pretty much been the same since the start of July except for a slightly higher ground-ball rate (47.5%) on tracked pitches.
Thanks for reading (as always) …
Have a wonderful weekend …
–Bernie
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.
Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. I’ll be doing these at least five times per week, and will limit each episode to 10 to 14 minutes.
Please subscribe – thank you! – and here’s the link:
Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb
For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.
Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.
For the last 36 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.
