Bernie’s Redbird Review: Three Cardinals Who Distinguished Themselves As Success Stories In 2024.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW 

The 2024 Cardinals are winding down, with only four games remaining in a disappointing season that wasn’t all bad. They’ll complete their series at Colorado on Thursday afternoon, then jet to San Francisco for a three-game weekend. And that will be it. The offseason begins. The drama begins. Change is on the way.

With 2024 accounted for, the Cardinals have now missed making the playoffs five times in the last eight full seasons. This excludes the Covid-disrupted 2020, which limited the Cards schedule to 58 games. After competing in five straight postseasons from 2011 through 2015, St. Louis is no longer an October fixture.

I’ll be reviewing the team’s 2024 season in the coming days and weeks, and that includes more than a few negatives. But I wanted to begin the Review process with something cheerful.

I am confident we can agree on this. The 2024 Cardinals had three players who turned in the type of high-level performances that made everyone happy.

1. THE COLD-BLOODED CLOSER, RYAN HELSLEY

With a huge assist from manager Oli Marmol, Helsley is in the final week of a career season, having tied Trevor Rosenthal’s franchise record for most saves (48) in a season. Helsley needs one more save in the final four games to set the new standard.

Helsley has struggled to stay healthy and fresh for an entire season, and a series of injuries has held him back. Marmol came up with a plan to eliminate Helsley’s relief appearances that covered more than one inning. And by keeping Helsley’s workload to one inning per assignment – usually in a save situation – the All-Star reliever stayed strong over the entire season.

And Marmol’s tactical shift really made a difference.

Helsley before the All-Star break: 2.36 ERA. 27.7 percent strikeout rate, 9.8 percent walk rate.

Helsley, after the All-Star break, through Wednesday’s save at Colorado: 1.54 ERA, 32.6 percent strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate.

So Helsley’s endurance made him more effective as the season dragged on. And tip of the cap to pitching coach Dusty Blake, who encouraged Helsley to use his slider more frequently. Great idea. Helsley’s slider held left-handed hitters to a .146 average and limited right-handed hitters to a .178 average. And when Helsley went with the slider to terminate an at-bat, he got a strikeout 44 percent of the time.

Helsley’s 48 saves (and counting) for a team that had 81 wins through Wednesday is mighty impressive. Going into Thursday’s game, Helsley had saved 59.3 percent of the team’s total victories. No other Cardinal closer during the DeWitt Era (1996-present) is close to matching that.

So when we see Helsley standing with saves in 59 percent of the 81 games won by the Cardinals through their first 158 games – we can make the case that no Cardinals team has ever relied as heavily on one closer to lock down victories. And no Cardinals team has benefited more from a closer’s impact on their team won-lost record for in a season.

2. THE ROOKIE MARVEL, MASYN WINN

Only 22, the rookie shortstop has shown a wide variety of polished skills that make him such a high-value player. Using the Baseball Reference version of Wins Above Replacement (WAR), here’s how Winn fits into the 2024 rookie class:

– No. 1 in total WAR
– No. 1 in defensive WAR
– No. 3 in offensive WAR
– No. 1 in Wins Above Average
– No. 1 in defensive runs saved
– No. 1 in runs scored
– Included on the leaderboard for most hits, RBIs, doubles, triples, home runs and more.

Sorry for another batch of numbers here, but I have to use them in order to display the magnitude of Winn’s wide range of talent.

In 2024, Winn became the only rookie player in Cardinals franchise history to put together this combination of impressive statistics:

• At least 30 doubles
• 5 triples
• 15 homers
• 55 RBIs
• At 80 runs scored
• 150 hits
• 10 stolen bases
• 14 defensive runs saved
• minimum 4.0 WAR

That’s right. Only one Cardinal rookie has whipped up that concoction of all-around goodness. Masyn Winn. And he’s still learning. He’s just getting started. And there’s more to my tribute. Other things to love about Winn: his two-strike hitting approach. And the way he peppers all parts of the field. This season Winn has pulled 65 hits, notched 44 hits to the opposite field, and connected for 44 hits straightaway.

Winn has 4.6 bWAR this season. Only four Cardinals rookies have ever topped that in a season: Albert Pujols (6.6) in 2001, Lou Klein (6.5) in 1943, Stan Musial (5.3) in 1942, and Rogers Hornsby (4.9) in 1916. Next on the list are Winn and Johnny Mize who are tied for fifth with a 4.6 rookie WAR.

3. THE ACCIDENTAL STARTER, ANDRE PALLANTE

Quite a transformation. Quite the change in plans. Pallante went from being a poor reliever – demoted to the minors several times – to becoming a starting pitcher that has the best ERA in the rotation. That nifty earned-run average, 3.47, represents his fine work in 19 starts. Pallante has gotten even better over time, posting a 3.12 ERA in his last 14 starts.

Since Pallante joined the rotation on May 29, here are the best ERAs by the St. Louis starters, minimum 10 starts:

+ Pallante, 3.47
+ Erick Fedde, 3.72
+ Lance Lynn, 4.20
+ Sonny Gray, 4.41
+ Kyle Gibson, 4.47
+ Miles Mikolas, 5.18

Since May 29, Pallante’s ERA is better than that of Pablo Lopez, Dylan Cease, Aaron Nola, Freedy Peralta, Kevin Gausman, Logan Webb, Shota Imanaga, Luis Castillo – and many other recognizable names.

Since May 29, the best starting-pitching ERAs in the NL Central belong to, in order: Paul Skenes, Justin Steele, Tobias Myers, and Andre Pallante.

Pallante will go into spring training with a grip on a rotation spot for 2025. That means the Cardinals will have two “new” starters for next season in Pallante and Fedde. I say “new” because neither pitcher was in the rotation plan before the start of 2024. That gives the Cardinals a head start for 2025. But Gray will have to pitch better, and the Cardinals presumably will continue to carry Miles Mikolas and his ballooning ERA. If the front office can go outside the organization to find a rotation upgrade, that would help the cause for 2025. And here’s hoping that rookie Michael McGreevy will get a full opportunity to start for the big club next season.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.