THE REDBIRD REVIEW
OK, let’s dismiss the pleasantries and go straight to the fomenting frustration that’s making my head throb. So it’s time for a therapy session. Please join me.
Doctor, I’m tired of …
1. The endless wishcasting over Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. They’re doing the best they can, but Grandpa Time never loses. When an athlete ages – and the clock moves differently for every player – the diminution of power and skill is inevitable. This is the sad reality. Arenado is 33 (and looking older) and Goldy is nearly 37. Two years ago, through the team’s first 113 games, the corner infielders had combined for 53 homers. This year, through 113 games, they have combined for 28 homers. They’ve had their share of big moments, but both are slugging under .390. HOWEVER … I’m gonna break my own rule here by pointing out that Arenado has been doing better over the last two months or so. Higher average, higher slugging percentage. He’s evidently made some changes, and while I doubt very much that the Cardinals can expect a full-on Arenado revival, we’ll see what develops. Isn’t this wishcasting? If I had no data to support my view that Arenado is stirring a bit, I wouldn’t bring it up. Wishcasting is all about wanting a player to do much better — and trying to convince the public that he’s looking like his former self — but pushing a misleading Happy Talk narrative without strong factual support. I need evidence beyond the “Arenado is 6 for his last 18” junk.
Doctor, I’m tired of …
2. Being constantly exasperated by Nolan Gorman. In 166 plate appearances since June 5, the tormented slugger has a .157 average, five home runs and a 41.6 percent strikeout rate. Two things about that: That’s the worst strikeout rate in the majors over that time … and 107 major-league hitters have more home runs than Gorman since June 5. His season began with promise but it’s all gone terribly wrong. The Cardinals were counting on Gorman to take his power even higher in 2024, after he led the team in homers (27) and slugging percentage (.478) last year. Is there a hitting instructor in the house? Recommendation: have him work with Jim Edmonds, who understands power swings from the left side. Jimmy had plenty of down times with too many swings and misses, but he always found a way to get back in sync. Edmonds understands Gorman better than Gorman understands Gorman.
Doctor, I’m tired of …
3. Waiting on Jordan Walker. That sound you hear is a large man generating thunder with his bat. In his previous 10 games coming into Tuesday, Walker had five doubles, three homers, four walks, a .357 average, .417 onbase percentage and a .691 slug. Am I rushing it or being unreasonable to suggest that it’s just about time to bring him back to the big club? The Cardinals have a putrid offense. They have too many right-handed hitters who flail and fail against lefty pitching. Walker wasn’t a monster against LH pitchers last season in his rookie campaign, but I don’t care about that. The Cardinals need instant impact. And now that Walker is booming again, he has as much chance to deliver as anybody in their organization. Oh yeah, and the Cardinals don’t really have a right-handed hitter on the bench. If Walker returns, he’ll have to start most games, but when he doesn’t start, his bat is at the ready in the dugout.
Do you know what right-handed hitting pinch hitters have done for the Cardinals this season? This: 5 for 38 (.132) with a .211 slug. (And their RH pinch hitters are only 2 for their last 23, or .087.) Or the Cardinals can do nothing, and watch Walker blast away down at Memphis, and win games for the Triple affiliate instead of the major-league team in ST. Louis that’s desperate for offense and right-handed muscle. The team’s right-handed batters have provided league-average offense this season but rank 24th among the 30 teams in homers and 27th in doubles.
Doctor, I’m tired of …
4. Counting the days until Lars Nootbaar performs in a way that matches his hype and potential. Over his first three seasons as a Cardinal, Nootbaar had a .351 onbase percentage, slugged .429 and posted a 116 OPS+ that was 16 percent above league average offensively. His impressive plate discipline included a 14 percent walk rate. Noot could wear down pitchers with extended at-bats and walks, then knock ‘em down with doubles and homers. We’re all waiting – and wanting – more of that. But in 245 plate appearances this season through Monday, Nootbaar had a .324 OBP, a .388 slug, and an OPS that put him just a tad below league average offensively.
That’s not enough. We know there’s more because we’ve seen it from Noot in the past. Sure, injuries have curtailed Noot’s momentum and consistency, but he came back from the IL about a month ago and has a .296 OBP, .356 slug and only two homers in 73 at-bats since then. His walk rate is way down from his usual standard, and his strikeout rate is on the rise. It’s past time for Nootbaar to kick it in and help fuel this tired offense.
Doctor, I’m tired of …
5. The auto-reflex, cop-out habit of blaming manager Oli Marmol for everything. Oli makes mistakes – don’t all managers? – but I’m not sure what we expect him to do with this offense. He’s tried lineup changes. He’s moved Arenado and Goldy up and down the card to see if what might work better for them. He’s given younger hitters an expanded opportunity. His handling of rookie shortstop Masyn Winn has been pretty much perfect. I could go on … and yes, I agree with those of you who criticized his decision to remove hot-hitting Michael Siani to use Brandon Crawford as a pinch-hitter against Cubs reliever Hector Neris. But again, all managers screw up with some isolated in-game decisions over 162 games. Earlier today, I said I didn’t understand why Marmol allowed Andre Pallante to labor through the fifth inning, running up a high pitch count, until the Mets broke the game open with three more runs off a tired pitcher to make it 6-0.
Here’s what I want to know. The Cardinals came into 2024 depending on four hitters to drive this offense: Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gorman and Walker. Heck, we can even put Nootbaar on the list and make it a group of five. I’ve already reviewed the disappointing seasons of all five hitters, and you already know about it.
So how do we think the St. Louis offense would be doing in 2024 if all five hitters came through with above-average seasons (or more) instead of struggling through hard times and contributing seriously less offense than expected?
I don’t know how many managers could thrive under these circumstances. They aren’t miracle men. If one or two hitters go south, it’s easier to jerry-rig things and come up with solutions. But this front office didn’t give Marmol much of a bench. So when all five guys that you’re heavily dependent on experience a substantial fall-off, then here’s what you have: an offense that ranks 14th among 15 National League teams in runs per game.
OK, I feel better now. Therapy session over.
If some of you disagree with me, that’s OK. You should be venting. That’s healthier than keeping all of the frustration bubbling over inside.
Thanks (as always) for reading …
–Bernie
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.
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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.
For the last 36 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.
