Bernie’s Redbird Review: What Does Nolan Arenado Want, Anyway?

As we learned Wednesday night, Nolan Arenado is a no-go to the Astros. Houston, we do not have liftoff. The disapproving third baseman picked up his no-trade clause and metaphorically threw it at Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, who couldn’t duck it.

What, we expected Arenado to throw Mozeliak a kiss instead?

Mozeliak was on the verge of brokering a deal with Houston’s front office …

Poof! 

This story becomes more confusion by the day … or even by the the hour.

– At the MLB Winter Meetings, Arenado’s agent, Joel Wolfe, said geography wasn’t important to his client in a trade destination. The priority for Arenado, Wolfe said, is winning. Noting that Arenado’s “biological clock is ticking,” the agent described Arenado’s goal.

“A team that he thinks is going to win now and consistently for the remainder of his career. He wants a team that has the throttle down — not saying that the Cardinals don’t — but one where he can jump right in and they’re going to win right now.”

That made sense, because Arenado will be 34 in April. Though still an above average player defensively, Arenado has lost substantial power. By the time the 2024 season ended, Arenado had slugged only .381 in his previous 205 games, a rate that was tied for 136th among 166 major-league hitters that had a minimum 600 plate appearances since July 19 of the 2023 season. (true fact: Paul DeJong’s slugging percentage over the same time frame, .380, was one point less than Arenado’s.)

Arenado was, however, 12th in the majors for most singles over those 205 games.

– About this winning is everything thing: John Denton of MLB.com reported Arenado’s six-team list of approved trade locations consisted of the Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Phillies and Red Sox. Wait … the Angels, a franchise that has missed making the playoffs in 14 of the last 15 seasons?

Huh. But Arenado blocked a trade to Houston and the chance to play for a relentless winner that has made the playoffs in each of the last eight seasons, seizing four AL pennants, two World Series titles and the postseason victories in the majors since 2017?

Yes, my friends. It’s confusing.

– In a story written Wednesday, the great Derrick Goold of STLtoday included this bit of information on Arenado, citing multiple sources: “He has not provided a list of preferred teams.” And Goold has reported on the Cardinals and Yankees having conversations about Arenado.

– So is there a list of approved teams … or not?

– Arenado rejected a move to Houston “for now,” as Katie Woo (The Athletic) reported. So, there’s still a chance? Maybe. “Arenado did not want to rush into a decision and preferred to wait until more of the third-base market was established,” Woo wrote. “This came as a surprise to Mozeliak, who has been candid about his desire to move his third baseman.”

Arenado evidently believes the market for his services will expand as soon as Bregman officially leaves the Astros to sign a free-agent deal elsewhere. But the timetable (and the choice) for Bregman’s decision is unclear, and the Astros may not want to wait around for Arenado. Other teams that have interest in Arenado may move onto another plan.

Hey, Arenado has the no-trade clause and the veto power and has the contractual right to reject teams that are trying to deal for him. No one should blame him for that. I don’t.

The Cardinals and Astros have been working hard to make a deal, but Arenado had the final say. He was not moved by the home-run allure of the easy pulled-homer distance from the batter’s box to the Crawford Boxes down the left-field line at Minute Maid Park.

I guess he doesn’t want to sit sideways with Paul Wall.

Arenado is said H-No to H-Town.

There’s no personal income tax in Texas, but Arenado apparently doesn’t care much about that. He’s done OK for himself making money playing ball. Besides, he’s more of a Kendrick Lamar guy than a George Strait or Willie Nelson guy.

So what happens next?

Well, Arenado can continue to send love letters to the Dodgers, and hope they’ll feel sorry for him and take him in. (Silence.) San Diego would be appealing to Arenado, and he’d be happy to play first base for the Padres, who have Manny Machado over at third. But the franchise is in a payroll-reduction mode, and Arenado is more of a luxury than a necessity. Besides, his defensive value drops quite a bit by moving from third base, where he’s won 10 gold gloves, and setting up at the unfamiliar position at first base.

Unless Bregman makes a snap decision – soon – this annoying drama could linger past Christmas, and into 2025. And there’s no way to predict Arenado’s state of mind as the process goes on and on and on. The fussy Arenado may change his mind more often than he changes his swing.

The market for Arenado exists but is limited because of his firm, hammer-like, no-trade authority … and his diminishing authority at the plate.

Other teams can read Baseball Reference. It takes 30 seconds of research to see that Arenado’s 2024 slugging percentage was 139 points down from where it was in 2022, and that his 2024 OPS was down 172 points from ‘22, and that his 16 home runs in 2024 were 18 less than he had on 2021, and 16 fewer than he walloped in 2022.

The Cardinals want something done, and they’re even willing to include a lot of money – to be wired to his new team – to make Arenado go away.

Here’s what MLB dot com reported:

“The Cardinals were willing to send $15-20 million to the Astros as part of the deal to help pay down Arenado’s salary, sources said. The eight-time All-Star is set to earn $74 million over the next three years, though the Rockies are on the hook for $10 million as part of their 2021 trade with the Cardinals, while $12 million of the deal is deferred, bringing the present-day value of what he is owed to roughly $60 million. The money the Cardinals were willing to include would have brought the Astros’ commitment down to roughly $40-45 million over three years.”

Now that this information was put out in public, it might help the Cardinals attract new shoppers for Arenado. Last season Arenado hit one less homer than the ancient Andrew McCutchen, and bopped only one more home run than Lane Thomas, but he can still hit for average, limit his strikeouts, and play plus defense. Last season Arenado was tied for fifth among MLB third basemen in defensive runs saved, and his Outs Above Average fielding-range metric was third best in the majors at his position. And if the Cardinals remain eager to pick up $15 million of the amount of money (or so) owed to Arenado over the next three seasons, it should lead to a relatively happy conclusion for all concerned.

So why did Arenado pass on Houston? One possibility is a reaction to the Astros’ trade of right fielder Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. It was a preemptive move to receive good value for Tucker before he departs as a free agent after the 2025 season.

Tucker will probably field offers that range from $400 to $500 million … at least. Why? Because since the 2021 season, the only major-league outfielders that have more Wins Above Replacement than Tucker are Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.

Though dealing with an injury, Tucker was outstanding again in 2024, hitting .289 with a .408 onbase percentage, .585 slug, and an OPS+ that put him 81 percent above league average offensively. He can steal bases, hit plenty of doubles and homers, and has excellent plate discipline – posting a higher walk rate (16.5%) than strikeout rate (16%.)

Tucker will soon pocket one of the largest contracts in MLB history – whether the Cubs pay it, or another wealthy team swoops in if he hits the open market. But Tucker won’t be in Houston. Last season the Astros were 10th in the majors in runs per game. That figures to drop, perhaps significantly, after subtracting Tucker and Bregman from the lineup.

All of this may have spooked Arenado. He presumably would be willing to drop his no-trade shield for a chance to join a proven winner – but perhaps Arenado is seeing this as another potential St. Louis situation. The Cardinals had a consistent presence on the postseason stage for a long time, and Arenado wanted to be part of it. But in the past two seasons, the Cardinals failed to make the playoffs and ranked 22nd overall in winning percentage.

The combination of Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt as teammates (2021-2024) did not produce a single postseason victory for St. Louis. Houston still has the horsepower to win for the next couple of years, but we also thought the same thing about the Cardinals after they’d made the playoffs in four straight seasons, 2019 through ‘22.

The Cardinals haven’t built a better team around Arenado — something he thought he could count on — so maybe he isn’t the mood to help out Mozeliak. And Arenado could have opted  out after his contract following his No. 3 MVP finish in 2022, but made a quick decision to stay with the Cardinals.

This is what Mozeliak told media after Arenado bypassed a chance to opt out of his contract. What did Mozeliak tell him to make it an easy call for Arenado?

“He asked questions on how we’re thinking about the club, what we’re thinking about in the future, and topics like, ‘How are we going to deploy our resources?’ It was a very positive conversation.”

We know what happened after that: 154 wins and 170 losses for Arenado and the Cardinals over the next two seasons. The Cardinals finished 13 games out of the NL’s third wild-card spot in 2023, and fell out of contention after the 2024 trade deadline and were six games out of the third wild card by season’s end.

Look at it that way, and you can understand why Arenado is looking out for himself this time. And any related anxiety swirling with Arenado is understandable. Houston isn’t heading for a collapse, but a downturn is likely. He doesn’t want to be told that everything is looking good in Houston, only to go through another St. Louis-style fade.

Does Arenado really know what he wants? You’d think he’d want to get away from the Cardinals as the organization enters a transition that will include less revenue, less star power, more reliance on young and unproven players, a smaller payroll, and a restructured baseball operations department. No one knows how this will all turn out for the Cardinals.

Question: If you’re running baseball ops for a very good club out there who thinks Arenado can help your team … don’t you at least pause and wonder what this guy is really all about? If your contending team has a bad month in 2025, will Arenado start brooding and sulking? If your team is good – but young – will Arenado complain – as he did here late in the 2023 season – that the Cardinals had too many young guys in the clubhouse?

The Cardinals must get Arenado out of here. You can’t have a planned season of opportunity for young players with Arenado still in place, occupying third base. And as I wrote earlier this week, it isn’t just that the Cardinals want to open up third base for Nolan Gorman; Arenado’s presence also blocks an opening at another position as well.

If Gorman has to scoot back to second base in 2025, it means 2B won’t be cleared for a meaningful audition by rookie Thomas Saggese. So how does the so-called youth movement get moving when Arenado won’t move?

Then again, there’s nothing in Arenado’s contract that stipulates he’s guaranteed a starting job. If Arenado’s power continues to decrease, the Cardinals can just go ahead and do it their way and play Gorman at third and Saggese at second as much as they want to.

Arenado can downshift into the elder statesmen and senior adviser role taken by Matt Carpenter and Brandon Crawford last season. Carpenter saw action in only 59 games, and grandpa Crawford appeared in only 28 games.

If the Cardinals told Arenado to go sit down on that bench and stay there in 2025, I’m guessing Houston would start to look really, really good to the cranky third basemen.

Will this happen? Naw, I don’t see that. Among other concerns, putting Arenado on the bench (if it looks like retribution) would damage the Cardinals’ reputation among agents and major-league players. That’s never a good thing. But I’d be surprised if Arenado was still a Cardinal by spring training.

So no, the Cardinals won’t sentence Arenado to the bench. But in this crazy situation, I admit it’s kind of fun to think about. And there is some truth in what I’m saying; the Cards don’t have to start Arenado at third base for 145, 150 games. Given his age-related decline, he might be fresher playing 80 games.

Yes, there was a twinkle in my eye as I wrote that; the possibility of mischief is entertaining. Arenado may be in charge of his career, but he isn’t in charge of the St. Louis lineup card. If Arenado stays here, good luck to manager Oli Marmol. Heck, he may want to get fired.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie