Bernie’s Redbird Review: What Have The Cardinals Shown Us Over the First Eight Games?

I apologize for not having a column on Monday. I was down at the federal courthouse in St. Louis, going through the jury-selection process for a civil case. Though I wasn’t selected for the panel, I cherished the opportunity to serve. It’s an honor.

Anyway, I have some catching up to do. As you know, the Cardinals and Brewers split a four-game series in Milwaukee. The Cardinals (5-3) were off Monday and open a three-game series at Miami tonight.

Before moving into the Miami series – to be followed by a three-game set in Cincinnati – let’s take a look at what the Cardinals have shown us through eight games …

STARTING PITCHING: I have mixed feelings about what we’ve seen so far. First of all, only three of the starts qualified as above average based on the Bill James-devised Game Score formula. Does this matter? You bet. Last season the Cardinals went 69-26 (.726) when their starter delivered a Game Score that was average or higher. In below-average starts, the team record was 21-46 (.313.) That’s a huge difference, and the Cardinals are 3-0 in their above-average starts so far – and 2-3 otherwise.

There’s a discrepancy in the earned-run average readings. In the standard version, the Cards’ starters rank 23rd in the majors with a 4.95 ERA. Using the fielding independent version (FIP), the rotation ERA is fourth-best in the majors at 3.18. That’s a reflection on strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed. The STL starters have yielded MLB’s third-lowest walk rate, have the 10th-highest strikeout rate, and have given up one homer per nine innings. That’s why the FIP is so good.

This group of starters have been on the unfortunate side of the luck factor; the batting average against them on balls in play – .355 – is the third-highest in the bigs after eight games. That .355 won’t last. Noy chance. The average will come down, and down – and normalize over time.

Over the past two seasons the Cardinals ranked first (2020) and second (2021) in the majors in defensive efficiency. (Simple explanation: the percentage of balls in play that are converted into outs by the fielders.) So far in 2022, the Cardinals rank 26th in defensive efficiency at .684. That’s a fluke, indicative of miniscule sample size more than anything else. That defensive efficiency percentage will go up and up. And that’s when we’ll see STL’s standard rotation ERA shape up into something more respectable.

Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz were superb in STL’s two wins against the Brewers. On consecutive nights Mikolas and Matz combined to restrain the Crew to six hits, one run, and one walk – with 13 strikeouts. Outstanding.

Dakota Hudson must get better. He’s averaged only 3.5 innings in his two starts – pitching to a 7.71 ERA and 6.38 FIP – and allowing 2.6 homers per nine innings.

Two rainouts and two scheduled days off have made it possible for manager Oli Marmol to go with a four-man rotation. We’ll have a fuller look at the rotation when (A) Jordan Hicks officially moves into a starting role; and (B) the Cardinals go through 20 consecutive games without a scheduled day off. That stretch begins Tuesday night in Miami.

THE OFFENSE: I guess it depends on how you choose to look at it. On the down side: five of the opening-day lineup starters – Yadier Molina, Paul Goldschmidt, Dylan Carlson, Harrison Bader and Paul DeJong – are off to below-average starts based on OPS+. And a few of those hitters (Goldy, Carlson, Molina) are at least 66 percent below league average offensively in OPS+. But Goldschmidt and Carlson won’t stay in the pits, Bader isn’t that far below average, and DeJong ranks in the 75th percentile of MLB hitters in hard-hit rate, and is in the 72nd percentile in barrel percentage. Molina clearly isn’t in form; we’ll have to see if and when that changes.

On the plus side: several hitters are carrying the load with above-average – or otherwise superior – performances. That list includes Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman, Albert Pujols, Tyler O’Neill, Andrew Knizner and Edmundo Sosa.

That’s why, despite the inconsistency, the Cardinals rank fourth in the majors with their average of 5.38 runs per game. They’re also sixth in batting average, sixth in onbase percentage, sixth in walk rate, fourth in slugging, fourth in OPS and fourth in adjusted OPS.

When several key lineup pieces are malfunctioning and your offense is still delivering at a top-five level, that’s a positive sign. The Cardinals also rank among the top nine teams in the majors for productive-outs percentage and the percentage of extra bases taken as base runners. But of course we’re just talking about eight games here.

BEST BULLPEN? Oli Marmol doesn’t speak loudly, but he does speak his mind, and his candor is one of the most appealing aspects about the rookie manager. Example: Marmol saying “I think we have the best bullpen,” after the Cardinals’ relievers fended off the Brewers for a 2-1 win on Saturday. “That’s extremely valuable. When I think of the way we used them, on any given night you can flip that on its head and I’d be totally fine with it. It’s just having the ability to trust any of those guys in any situation is a nice thing to have.”

It’s too soon to make a ruling on the “best bullpen” claim, but I like how Marmol put it out there … right in the middle of a four-game series in Milwaukee, the defending division champeen with the celebrated bullpen.

But the Cardinals’ relievers are trying to back up Marmol, ranking third in the majors (second in NL) with a 2.14 ERA through Monday.

The Cardinals are one of four teams — along with the Yankees, Mariners and Cubs — that haven’t allowed a run in the ninth inning so far this season. STL relievers have pitched to 22 batters over six ninth-inning gigs, getting nicked for only three singles and a walk. In six innings of work, opponents have batted .143 with a .325 OPS against Cards relievers during ninth-inning settings.

Concerns? A few.

– A too-high 11 percent walk rate. And a strikeout rate (22%) that’s a bit on the low side, ranking 22nd in MLB. That’s why the bullpen’s fielding independent ERA is significantly higher at 3.51. I like the 44.4 ground-ball rate from the bullpen crew.

– Not sure about Drew VerHagen, the big offseason pickup by the STL front office. Two appearances. A 1.636 WHIP. A 7.36 ERA. But VerHagen will have plenty of chances to get buckets of ground balls from opposing hitters and make the front office look brilliant for signing him after his two seasons in Japan.

– Not sure if T.J. McFarland can repeat his 2021 performance for the Cardinals. But here’s hoping that he can.

– What’s going on with Genesis Cabrera – specifically his drop in velocity? Last season he averaged 97.83 mph on his four-seam fastball, and 97.88 on his sinker. This season he’s averaging 94.65 on the four-seam, and 94.8 on the sinker. That, according to Brooks Baseball.

But even with a few early questions the bullpen is definitely an asset, and has a flexible supply of relievers that can get outs in a variety of ways. And I feel confident in believing that Marmol will run a bullpen better than any STL manager since Tony La Russa.

EARLY POSITIVE SURPRISE: Knizner has caught virtually the same number of innings (34) as Yadier Molina (36.) And while Knizner only has 16 plate appearances so far, he’s impressed with a .333 average, .975 OPS, a homer and a double plus five RBIs.

EARLY NEGATIVE SURPRISE: Through eight games, here’s what the Cardinals have received offensively from the top two lineup spots, manned by Carlson and Goldschmidt. I’ve attached the MLB ranking for top-two lineup performances:

Batting Average: .161, 29th
Onbase Percentage: .260, 27th
Slugging Percentage: .210, 30th
OPS: .470, 29th
Isolated Power: .048, 29th
wRC+: 45, 28th

Plus: three RBI, three extra-base hits (all doubles), and a .100 average (1 for 10) with runners in scoring position. Since the end of the three-game series against Pittsburgh at the start of the season, Carlson and Goldschmidt have combined to bat .070 (3 for 43) with a .204 OPS … and have been on base only five times in 46 plate appearances.

EVERYBODY’S FAVORITE DH: Led by Albert Pujols, the designated hitter position is clicking for St. Louis, with the Cardinals ranking seventh in MLB at the position in onbase percentage (.353), 12th inn slugging (.448) and 10th in OPS (.801.)

Pujols is 1 for 8 vs. RH pitching but has smacked lefties around for a .571 average, two homers, four RBIs, three runs and a 1.429 slugging percentage in seven bruising plate appearances.

This is no early-season noise or novelty.

Consider:

– Since the start of the 2019 season 53 MLB hitters have made at least 400 plate appearances vs. left-handed pitching. Among the 53 Pujols ranks sixth with a .542 slugging percentage and is 19th with a .857 OPS. And he’s homered every 13.3 at-bats vs. lefties.

– Since the start of the 2021 season, among 145 MLB hitters that have at least 150 plate appearances vs. LH pitchers, Pujols ranks third in slugging (.643), fourth in Isolated Power (.336), fifth in OPS (.990), and 17th in batting average (.308.) And he’s banged a home run every 9.5 at-bats against them. Ridiculous! Using park-and-league adjusted runs created (wRC+) Pujols has performed 61 percent above league average offensively over the last two seasons when confronting a LH pitcher.

ARENADO MAGNIFICO: After his first season with the Cardinals, N. Arenado was determined to crank up his numbers vs. RH pitching and find a way to overcome the challenge posed by Busch Stadium. And while we have only eight games to draw from so far, he seems to be making the adjustments.

Against RHP Arenado has 10 hits in 22 at–bats, four walks, five doubles, a homer and six RBI. And he’s batting .455 with a 1.357 OPS. (Against lefties? Three hits, all homers, in eight at-bats. With six RBIs.)

In his first 17 plate appearances at Busch Stadium in 2022, Arenado has three doubles, three homers, nine RBI, a .438 average and 1.658 OPS.

Then again, Arenado went into Milwaukee and sizzled some more with two doubles and a homer, walking four times and batting .429 with a 1.341 OPS during the four-game series.

His long hair may be on fire.

WATCHING TOMMY EDMAN: He had a good series at Milwaukee, going 4 for 14 with two homers and four RBI. That’s three homers in eight games this season for Edman. In 2021 he didn’t hit his third homer until his 49th game of the season.

TUESDAY’S MATCHUP: Adam Wainwright makes his third start of the season and takes a 3.48 ERA into the meet with the Marlins. Albert Pujols will leg-kick some swings against Marlins lefty Jesus Luzardo. The 24-year-old Luzardo had an excellent first start of the season, allowing only two hits and an earned run while striking out 12 Angels in five innings. But last season Luzardo had a 6.44 ERA in 12 starts for Miami, his hometown, after being acquired from Oakland.

In his career Luzardo has allowed a .343 OBP, .494 slug and .837 OPS to RH batters.

Last season the Cardinals ranked No. 1 in the majors in slugging percentage vs. lefties (.473) and were No. 2 overall and first in the NL with a .798 OPS against them.

This season the Cardinals already have seven homers and a .625 slugging percentage against lefties in only 64 at-bats. Since the start of 2021 the Cardinals have the highest slugging percentage (.481) and OPS (.808) in the majors when facing left-handed pitching.

Enjoy the game.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated and analytical sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the “Bernie Show” podcast at 590thefan.com — the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

Please email your “Ask Bernie” questions to BernScoops@gmail.com

All stats used here were sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball Net unless otherwise noted.