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The Cardinals moved on from a disappointing weekend in Cincinnati, relocated to Cleveland for two games, and got back on track with a 4-2 victory over the Indians  in Tuesday’s series opener. It was a nice win, all the way around. Adam Wainwright’s pitching, a quick-strike offense, another huge night by Harrison Bader, and a game-winning homer from the resurgent Paul DeJong. 

If president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and GM Michael Girsch are looking for reasons to fortify the roster before Friday afternoon’s MLB trade deadline, the Cardinals are making the case. 

Here’s what I’m talking about: 

1) The Cardinals are 14-9 in their last 23 games. The progress doesn’t jump out as anything that’s particularly thrilling or dramatic, but the 14-9 is tied with Milwaukee for the best record in the NL since June 28. And the 14-9 is tied for the third-best record in the majors over that time. The Cards have won four out of their last six games and are 7-3 in the last 10. 

2) During the 14-9 scoot the Cardinals have the third-best rotation ERA in the majors at 2.73. And contrary to the outdated narrative, their starters rank ninth in the majors and fifth in the NL for innings pitched since June 28. Sorry, but starting pitchers aren’t supplying 1968 innings in 2021. And over the last 23 games, which coincides with the overall team improvement, St. Louis starters have provided a solid amount of innings relative to 2021 standards.

3) The run prevention is tightening. The Cardinals have allowed 86 runs in their last 23 games; only three MLB teams have given up fewer runs since June 28. 

4) Of the 86 total runs scored against the Cardinals since June 28, only one was unearned. The defense — which already was good – has been especially clean and sharp in recent weeks. The Cards have been moving up the Fielding Bible charts for defensive runs saved. As of Wednesday morning they were 7th in the majors with 33 DRS. 

5) During their 14-9 kick-in, the Cardinals have  averaged 4.6 runs per game and batted .262 with a .327 OBP and .442 slug for a .769 OPS. Even though the Cardinals rank only 12th in the NL in OBP and ninth in OPS since June 28, their upturn on offense qualifies as across-the-board improvement. Offense is booming in the National League during the month of July, and the Cardinals are contributing to the pyrotechnics. 

6) I wrote about this more positive trend last week, but the team’s changes in the hitting approach are paying off. Yes, absolutely, the modifications should have been put into place much sooner. But the improvement — though long overdue — is making a difference. 

Over their last 23 games the Cardinals rank first in the NL and second overall with a .217 batting average on two-strike counts. And their strikeout rate in two-strike scenarios, 38.8 percent, is the fifth lowest in MLB since June 28. The Cards are also fourth in MLB in two-strike slugging percentage through this stretch. 

Before June 28 the Cardinals were hitting .144 (29th in MLB) and ranked 27th in slugging when batting with two strikes. 

7) The situational hitting is sizzling. In going 14-9 the Cardinals have batted .324 with runners in scoring position (No. 2 in MLB) with a .551 slug (No. 3 in MLB.) And with their .304 batting average with RISP and two outs ranks third in the majors since June 28. And since June 28 the Cards rank third (MLB) in two-out RBIs with 52. 

8) The Cardinals have stolen 14 bases in 17 attempts in their last 23 games. Via Bill James Online, the team’s net baserunning gain is up to +17 for the season. Their percentage of extra bases taken on batted balls in play (44%) is tied for the sixth-best in the majors. 

9) The emphasis on hitting the ball to the opposite field has led to significant improvement against defensive shifts. Since June 28 the Cardinals rank third in MLB with a .345 average against traditional shifts. And when you include non-traditional shifts, their .333 average is tied for fourth in MLB. There is a reason for this: an opposite field rate of 30.7 percent that’s No. 1 in the majors since June 28. 

10) Earlier this season I repeatedly noted the Cardinals’ terrible luck on batted balls in play. Well, take a look now. The opposite-field increase is changing that. Over the first three months the Cards had the second-worst BIP average (.268) in the majors. In July, that BIP average has jumped to .302; that’s 12th overall. 

11) It’s always helpful — intentional understatement — to have Harrison Bader, Paul Goldschmidt and Paul DeJong going on molten-hot streaks over the last month. Using wRC+, which is park-and-league adjusted runs created, I’ll show you some notable performances since June 28. The Cardinals have five regulars performing above average over that time. 

This wRC+ thing may seem like gobbledygook to some, and I get that. But wRC+ is a common point of reference used by baseball execs. Keep in mind that 100 wRC+ is league average; a hitter wants to be above 100. The higher the better. 

  • Bader, 202
  • Goldschmidt, 166
  • DeJong,  160
  • Tyler O’Neill, 112 
  • Nolan Arenado, 103 

12) Finally: the good things matter and should be recognized. With context. I never hesitate to discuss the so-called negative things about the 2021 Cardinals. That said, the Cardinals have a difficult assignment: taking the good recent trends and converting them into more and more wins. Taking the positives and turning them into consistent success over an extensive run of games. Using this sharper and better baseball to slash into Milwaukee’s eight-game lead in the NL Central — and to reduce their seven-game gap in the wild-card standings.

But if the St. Louis front office wanted compelling reasons to gauge whether the Cardinals are worthy of investment in the trade marketplace, the dugout staff and players are giving the bosses something to think about. The Cardinals are 51-50 as they go into Wednesday’s day game at Cleveland. Is it too late for them to make a serious move in the standings? We’ll soon know what management thinks about that. The trade deadline is two days away. 

I’ll be back with another column later on today. Don’t forget it’s a 12:10 p.m first pitch (STL time) in Cleveland today. 

Thanks for reading …. 

–Bernie 

Check out Bernie’s sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen live online and download the Bernie Show podcast at 590thefan.com  … the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.

The weekly “Seeing Red” podcast with Bernie and Will Leitch is available at 590thefan.com …

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

* All stats used here are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball unless otherwise noted.

 

Bernie Miklasz

Bernie Miklasz

For the last 36 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.

While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.

Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.