Bernie’s Redbird Review: A Flawed, Faulty Offense Took The Cardinals Down In 2024.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals couldn’t complete a four-game sweep of the Pirates because the offense got shut down again in Thursday’s 3-2 loss at Busch Stadium.

For the 73rd time this season, the Cardinals were held to three runs or fewer in a game. Only three NL teams have been limited to a max total of three runs more often than St. Louis this season. The repercussions are obvious; the Cards are 19-54 (.260) when failing to exceed three runs in the competition.

On 44 occasions, the Cardinals were unable to scrounge for more than two runs in a game. When it happens their record is 7-37 for a .159 winning percentage.

Could the team’s starting pitching be better? Of course. But for the most part, their rotation has done a respectable job.

After sweeping the Cubs in a doubleheader played July 13, the Cardinals had the fifth-best record in the National League at 50-45. At that point the Redbirds were only 3 and ½ games behind first-place Milwaukee in the NL Central and were positioned above the Padres, Diamondbacks, Mets and Cubs in the wild-card standings. Another wild-card contender, the Braves, were only two games above St. Louis.

All in all, the Cardinals were in pretty good shape to make a run at a playoff spot. But the somnambulant St. Louis offense ruined the team’s chances of returning to the postseason.

Since taking down the Cubs in the July 13 doubleheader, the Cardinals faded from playoff contention by going 27-31 (.466) through Thursday.

And while there is plenty of blame to spread around, the St. Louis offense is the primary reason for the downfall.

Over the last 58 games the Cardinals:

– Have plated no more than four runs in 40 games and won just 12 of of the 40.

– Have scored three or fewer runs 31 times, winning only 7 of the 31.

– Have been choked to two runs or less 19 times, losing 16 of the 19.

Over the last 58 games Cardinal pitchers had an overall 4.20 ERA that ranked seventh among the 15 National League teams. And the bullpen was particularly strong, ranking sixth in the majors in ERA during that time.

Problem is, the Cardinals couldn’t turn enough leads over to the bullpen for safekeeping. In the last 58 games, the Redbirds led through seven innings only 20 times, the second-lowest total in the NL. And the Cards had the fewest number of leads through eight innings than any NL team.

The STL offense couldn’t keep up, struggling to score a sufficient amount of runs to give Andrew Kittredge, JoJo Romero and Ryan Helsley a large spread of opportunities to hold late leads or convert them to saves. Through the 58-game slowdown, the Cardinals scored the fewest runs by an NL offense in the first six innings of.

This is no surprise. Failure is the forecast for any offense that doesn’t hit for much power or take advantage of RBI opportunities. The hitters can overcome one of those flaws – but not both.

For example: the 2013 Cardinals led the National League in runs per game and won the NL pennant with an offense that finished 13th among 15 teams in home runs.

How did they pull it off? By drawing a lot of walks, generating the NL’s top onbase percentage, leading the league in doubles, and batting a preposterous .330 with runners in scoring position.

The 2024 Cardinals are dragging in all of those areas. Among the 15 National League teams, St. Louis ranks 12th in slugging percentage, 12th in home runs, 13th in doubles, and 14th in runs per game.

The sickness is more extreme when the Cardinals have a chance to deliver with men in scoring position. In RISP scenarios, this sorry collection of hitters rank last in the National League in batting average, slugging, home runs, and runs batted in. They’re also 14th in doubles. The current .226 batting average with runners in scoring position is the worst by the Cardinals in a season since the Bill DeWitt Jr. ownership era began in 1996.

It’s a bad offense for many reasons, but for the most part we can point at four names: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker.

1. In 2022 Goldy and Arenado combined for 65 homers, 218 RBIs and 621 total bases. With nine games remaining in 2024, Goldschmidt-Arenado have combined for only 37 homers, 129 RBIs and 457 total bases.

2. In 2022 Goldschmidt and Arenado combined for 13 home runs and 131 RBIs with runners in scoring position. This season they have six homers and 85 RBIs with RISP.

3. In 2023, up-and-coming young hitters Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker combined for 43 homers, 127 RBIs and 381 total bases. This season, they’ve combined for 23 homers, 66 RBIs and 201 total bases.

4. In 2023, Walker and Gorman combined for a .260 average 12 home runs and 82 RBIs with runners in scoring position. This season Walker and Gorman have combined for a .175 average, two homers and 32 RBIs with RISP.

Elsewhere …

5. Using adjusted OPS+ as our measure, seven hitters that had at least 130 plate appearances in 2023 have done worse in 2024: Goldschmidt, Arenado, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Walker, Gorman, and Dylan Carlson.

6. Only three have improved: Alec Burleson, Willson Contreras and Masyn Winn. But Winn had never been in the majors until his promotion to big club on Aug. 18, 2023. So his improvement requires context. Because of injuries, Contreras played in only 84 games this season. Burleson was making impressive progress for much of the season but has gone into a deep funk since the third week of July.

7. Burleson’s power has deteriorated in a startling way over his last 52 games. In 190 at-bats over that time, he has just three homers and a dim .300 slugging percentage. Burleson – shockingly – has driven in only one run in 73 at-bats since Aug. 27, batting .219 over that time.

8. The center-field position has wheezed offensively all season. The several players that have occupied center field have combined for only four home runs, a .221 average, .271 OBP and a grotesque .290 slugging percentage.

9. Let’s expand the view here. In 2021, the Cardinals received a fantastic offensive performance from their primary outfielders.

Led by Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson and Harrison Bader, the ‘21 St. Louis outfield ranked 5th in the majors in homers, 7th in slugging, and 14th in RBIs.

But since the start of the 2022 campaign, the St. Louis outfield ranks 24th in RBIs, 25th in slugging, and 26th in home runs.

If Cardinals’ ownership and management declares the desire to compete for a postseason spot in 2025, they’d better come up with a plan to enliven this deadwood offense. Cardinals fans aren’t going to fall for a bogus marketing pitch. The 2024 Cards have one of the very worst offenses during DeWitt’s 29 seasons as the chairman. And fans won’t be fooled by more promises.

Thanks for reading and I hope you have a pleasant weekend.

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.