Weekend At Bernie’s: After Battling Back From A Horrible Start, The Cardinals Must Now Prove They’re For Real.

WEEKEND AT BERNIE’S 

At the midpoint of the 2024 regular season, the Cardinals are perched in a pretty good spot at 42-39. On the surface there’s nothing special about that record, but the context matters.

This 42-39 looks mighty fine considering how deeply the Cardinals were submerged with a 15-24 (.385) record through their first 39 games. Manager Oli Marmol, the staff and the players deserve our praise for clambering their way to respectability.

The Cardinals are flapping and thrashing in the National League mosh pit, swinging elbows and bumping heads within the mob of fallible postseason contenders.

And while it’s too soon to make any serious judgments about the state of the National League wild-card race, the math shows the Cardinals with a miniscule lead in the early-bird maneuvering for the NL’s No. 3 wild-card spot. The first and second wild-cards are within reach. But the Cardinals are hardly secure given that seven other teams sit behind them in the wild-card pack at deficits ranging from one game to five games.

First-place Milwaukee remains stubbornly elusive atop the NL Central, leading St. Louis by 6 and ½ games going into Saturday. At the moment, FanGraphs gives the Cardinals a 15.1 percent shot of winning the division. That seems ominous, but the Cards had only a 3.4 percent chance at the division title at their bottom point (15-24) on May 11.

The change in direction is dramatic. Through Friday the Cardinals possessed the National League’s best record (27-15) since May 12. Their .643 winning percentage during the season-changing pivot is second overall in the majors. Over the last 48 days the Cardinals’ postseason probability increased from 10.4 percent to 45.2 percent.

In winning 27 of their last 42 games, Cardinals have given us a reason to believe in them … but only to a point. When the fellers were 15-24, you couldn’t find many folks talking up the Cards as a threat to anything except themselves and their home-attendance count. Since then the Redbirds have produced a helluva lot more wins. They have developed into an intriguing story. But that doesn’t make them a badass team capable of conquering October.

But I agree with something written Friday by my friend and Seeing Red podcast partner Will Leitch in his weekly “Five Fascinations” column at MLB.com:

“The strangest thing about this is that it’s still not entirely clear that the Cardinals are all that good,” Leitch opined. “They finished Wednesday with the third-worst run differential in the NL, both Paul Goldschmidt and (especially) Nolan Arenado have fallen off dramatically, Jordan Walker has been back at Triple-A since late April and the club doesn’t really have a fifth starter (and barely has a fourth). They’re really still a bit of a mess. And yet here they are.”

All true. OK, so what do the Cardinals need to bolster the legitimacy of their rising-team status? Their 27-15 upturn may have shifted the NL standings, but there’s at least some hesitation to fully embrace this positive turn as something that is real and will last.

During their 27-15 rush the Cardinals have played a lot of games decided by one or two runs. They’ve done well in these thrillers, going 17-7. That includes a 12-5 edge in one-run games. Winning the close ones is important, and the Cardinals are doing it. But the success is – what’s the word? – fragile? Precarious? Because these one-run and two-run winning margins can turn on a team without warning.

As the Cardinals enter their final 81 games, here are my thoughts on what must happen to sustain their success and avoid a damaging breakdown and comedown.

1. The offense must generate more runs. Period. Through 81 games the Cardinals ranked 26th overall and 14th in the NL with an average of 3.98 runs per game. They can’t expect to keep skimping by. They averaged 4.5 runs in their 27-15 season rescue, but that’s misleading. MLB teams are averaging 4.3 runs per game this season. And over the last 42 games the Cardinals have scored under that average 23 times. And they are 11-12 when scoring four runs or fewer. This can’t go on. Perhaps the second-half offense will be stimulated by the injury returns of Lars Nootbaar and Tommy Edman. The full second-half presence of Willson Contreras in the lineup should help.

2. The lineup needs more from potential impact bats that are way too quiet. Dormant hitters must ramp up. The Cardinals can’t realistically expect Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson and Masyn Winn to continue igniting the offense with their red-hot bats. They’ll cool down some; Winn already has. During the 25-17 run, Donovan, Winn and Burleson accounted for 37.5 percent of the team’s RBIs, 34 percent of the home runs, 46 percent of the doubles, and 37 percent of the runs scored. This isn’t sustainable. It’s imperative for other hitters to come through to make the lineup more complete.

The Cardinals would love to see fewer strikeouts and a lot more home-run impact from Nolan Gorman. He’s lost at the plate. Can Jordan Walker return to St. Louis after a lengthy stay in the minors to become an “X Factor” force? Is it reasonable to expect more power – even in moderate doses – from Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado? So many questions.

3. The 5th spot in the rotation must be stabilized. And it isn’t just about the fifth starter. There’s more to it than that, and the front office looms large in this scenario. Andre Pallante certainly is trying to show that he’s the man for the job. He’s made six starts. In four of the starts (combined) Pallante had an 0.46 ERA and a 25% strikeout rate. That’s pretty amazing. Pallante’s other two starts were poor, but here’s the bottom line: the Cardinals are 4-2 in Pallante’s six starts. (The one lingering issue is his vulnerability against right-handed hitters.) Matthew Liberatore made a fantastic start against the Braves earlier this week and can’t be ruled out.

But will president of baseball ops John Mozeliak make a trade for a more established starter? That decision could be huge. Even if Pallante is able to handle the No. 5 role, the Cardinals won’t have enough protection. Can Lance Lynn provide more innings and quality starts? What about Miles Mikolas? His last start was awful, but before that he’d been outstanding over an eight-start sequence. Can Mikolas do it again? And let’s be clear here: if the Cardinals suffer another starting-pitcher or two during the second half, the rotation is in trouble.

4. The bullpen must hold firm and steady. The Cardinals lead the majors in saves, are second in holds, second in “shutdowns” and third in bullpen Win Probability Added. The Redbirds are 35-2 when leading after seven innings – and remain undefeated (38-0) when leading through eight. Ryan Helsley leads the majors with 28 saves and is one of the top closers in the game. Ryan Fernandez has emerged as another high-leverage handler, and that’s a plus. It’s too soon to know what to expect from Giovanny Gallegos (shoulder) after his healing time on the IL. We’ve seen the potential of the rookie reliever Chris Roycroft. But this can’t be about wishing and hoping.

Oli Marmol relies heavily on his bullpen – as he should – and it’s mandatory to preserve the strength of the finest part of this team. If the bullpen collapses, the Cardinals won’t overcome the shortcomings in other areas. If the bullpen weakens, the front office must get on the case and add a quality reliever or two before the trade deadline. The Cardinals can’t afford to have a strength fade into a weakness.

5. The front office: go aggressive or risk going bust. I’ve already cited Mozeliak and the baseball department twice in this column, so let’s complete the thread. Whether it’s securing viable and effective rotation depth, or rearming the bullpen, or adding more muscle to the lineup, the Cardinals have to make moves if they’re serious about winning. They may need help in all of those places. This can’t be about settling for a projected win total to creep into the playoffs. It’s about building a better team that’s capable of having success in the postseason to end an embarrassing streak of October failures.

For the 2024 Cardinals, the first half of the season was all about making an admirable recovery after a brutal start. The second half will be all about proving they’re for real.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed perspective and opinions on St. Louis and national sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.