Weekend At Bernie’s: To The Delight Of Their Traveling Fans, The Cardinals Made A Spirited Comeback Friday In Kansas City.

WEEKEND AT BERNIE’S

Cardinals fans enjoy making the trek to Kansas City when the Redbirds visit the other side of the state. Since 2016, the Cardinals have thanked their caravan by winning 15 of 20 games from the Royals at Kauffman Stadium.

The latest KC invasion occurred Friday when the Cardinals (60-57) put on an entertaining show. The visitors flexed late to rally for an 8-5 victory. From a St. Louis viewpoint, there was a lot to like about the successful opener of a two-game series.

WHAT I LIKED

1. The Cardinals made a rare comeback. According to Stathead, St. Louis was 5-46 this season before Friday when losing through seven innings. It’s been a challenge for the offense to storm back from a late deficit to win. They’re 9-42 when trailing after six innings, and 2-48 when behind after eight innings.

So it was sort of a big deal when rookie Victor Scott stepped up with his team down 5-4 to rip a double into the right-field corner to knock in two runs for a 6-5 lead. Willson Contreras provided security with his two-run homer in the ninth to make it 8-5. And for only the sixth time in 46 games, the Cardinals charged back to win when facing a deficit through seven innings.

2. Victor Scott II is hitting with more authority. The speedy rookie center fielder appears to be more poised, capable and confident compared to what we saw during his nervous MLB debut early in the season.

In the opening month, before returning to Triple A Memphis, Scott batted .085 and chipped in four RBIs. He had only three extra-base hits in his first 65 big-league plate appearances.

In his first five games since his recall from Memphis to replace the injured Michael Siani, Scott already has matched his early-season RBI total of four … but has done it in 40 fewer at–bats. This time around, Scott has almost as many hits (4) in 19 at-bats as he did (5 hits) in 59 at-bats during the first month. And Scott’s two extra-base hits in five starts is one shy of his three XBH in 17 opening-month starts.

Scott is batting a mild .211 since returning to the Cardinals on Aug. 5. What’s so great about that? There is a larger point here: he’s striking pitches with a lot more bang. I’ll show you …

First month: 88.2 mph average exit velocity
This month: 92.6 mph average exit velocity

First month: 26.7 percent hard-hit rate
This month: 58.3 percent hard-hit rate

First month: .136 slugging percentage
This month: .421 slugging percentage

It’s only been a few games, and this may not last in a full-strength way, but Scott has shown the ability to smash and drive pitches with harder contact.

Scott still strikes out a lot, and he’s barreled only one pitch since rejoining the Cardinals. But his modified swing – with a leg kick as suggested by instructor Ryan Ludwick – already has produced two game-altering blows.

First was Scott’s first major-league homer, a two-run clout in the second inning to give the Cardinals an early lead in their 4-3 win over Tampa Bay. Next was the late two-run double that gave the Cardinals the lead and a comeback triumph Friday in KC. In both instances, the two extra-base hits were the two most important plays of the game in terms of win expectancy.

3. Willson Contreras roars again. In late July, Contreras homered in back-to-back games in the home series against the Nationals. After that, he entered a prolonged slump with only six hits in 41 at-bats (.146). And only one of the hits went for extra bases (a double.) Contreras has been deeply concerned with the political strife in wake of the controversial (and likely corrupt) reelection of dictatorial president Nicolas Maduro in his native Venezuela. In particular, Contreras was worried about his family members there. I don’t know how much of a factor his anxiety played into his downturn offensively – but any distraction was understandable.

Friday night, Contreras unloaded on Kansas City pitchers for two homers, a double and four RBIs. The voltage charged the Contreras slugging percentage to .494. Even with the slump, Contreras is performing 43 percent above league average offensively per OPS+. The Cardinals obviously need Contreras to reemerge as a force with a bat in his hands, and Friday’s outbreak may have been the beginning of a hot streak. The Redbirds hope so.

4. Matthew Liberatore’s game-saving relief. The lefty replaced a failing Mikolas and shut Kansas City down for three scoreless and hitless innings. Only one Royal reached base, on a walk. Liberatore struck out three of his final six batters faced. Keeping the Royals off balance with a variety of stuff, Liberatore got 10 called strikes on his 36 pitches. Eight of the called strikes came on his four-seam fastball or sinker. The Cardinals don’t win this game without Liberatore coming in to put the Royals in check. Andrew Kittredge and Ryan Helsley worked the eighth and ninth (respectively) and didn’t allow a run despite four of nine hitters reaching base in the final two innings. Bottom line: five shutout innings by the St. Louis bullpen. And that was huge.

5. Tommy Pham. I have so much respect for this man and his intense competitiveness. In the eighth, with runners on first and third, Pham hit a ground ball that seemed destined to become an inning-ending double play. Had that been the case, the Cardinals would have trailed 5-4 going into the ninth. The Royals got a force out at second base for the second out of the inning, but the hustling Pham wasn’t about to concede. He ran hard all of the way, and barely beat the relay throw to first. The Royals challenged the call, but the appeal was denied by the replay crew. By legging out a potential double-play grounder, Pham kept the inning alive for Scott, who swatted the two-run double for the lead. Brendan Donovan and Pham scored on the play. Donovan – for some reason – didn’t try to score from third base on the ground ball, but everything turned out OK. Pham also had an RBI ground-out earlier in the contest.

Other stuff I liked …

* It was good to see Alec Burleson crank three hits including a solo home run. The No. 2 and No. 3 spots in the order – Burly and Contreras – combined for six hits, five RBIs and four runs scored.

* St. Louis pitchers got through Friday’s game without suffering any real damage from KC’s phenom shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. – who went 0 for 4 with a walk. Understatement: it isn’t easy to stop Witt. He came into Friday’s game with the highest batting average (.349) in the majors and was third in slugging (.606) and fourth in onbase percentage (.394) … not to mention his 33 doubles, 10 triples, 22 homers, 84 RBIs and 25 stolen bases.

Witt, an amazing all-around talent, leads the majors with 8.1 WAR this season. Before being cooled by the Cardinals, Witt had batted .481 with a 1.362 OPS, eight doubles, six homers and 21 RBIs in his previous 19 games. With one more game to go at Kauffman, can the Cardinals get out of Kansas City safely by preventing Witt from clobbering them? Good luck.

* The Cardinals won despite going 1 for 12 with runners in scoring position and leaving 10 runners on base. With 13 hits and six walks, the Cardinals could have scored in double digits Friday. So why did I like this? Answer: the Cardinals got away with going 1 for 12 with RISP and collected a win. That’s like cashing a longshot ticket. St. Louis is 10 for 71 (.141) with runners in scoring position in August.

WHAT I DIDN’T LIKE

Another ineffective start by Miles Mikolas, who didn’t make his team’s early 3-0 lead hold up. Mikolas retired six of seven Royals in the first two innings, but a barrage was coming. During the 3rd and 4th innings the Royals went 7 for 12 (.583) against Mikolas with a double, triple, sac fly and five runs.

Four of the seven hits came on two-strike counts as the Royals pounded their way to a 5-3 lead. Over his four innings, Mikolas got only four whiffs on 40 swings via Statcast.

This season Mikolas has the lowest swinging-strike rate (6.9%) and strikeout rate (16.1%) among 64 MLB starting pitchers. Needless to say, the contact rate against Mikolas (85.9%) is the highest against a starting pitcher in the majors.

Mikolas has a 6.56 ERA in his last nine starts, with opponents batting .335 with a .545 slugging percentage against him over that time. (Ouch.)

For the season, Mikolas has a frightful 5.30 ERA that’s the second worst among 64 innings-qualified starters. The only starter with a higher ERA is Washington’s Patrick Corbin at 5.88.

St. Louis starting pitchers have a 4.44 ERA this season, ranking 23rd among the 30 teams. Just for kicks, I subtracted Mikolas’ innings pitched and earned runs from the overall rotation total. My finding: the other Cardinal starters have combined for a 4.20 ERA.

In his last 46 starts – which goes back to the June 10 of last season – Mikolas has a 5.35 ERA, with opponents getting him for a .283 average and .479 slug. Mikolas, who turns 36 on Aug. 23, has a guaranteed salary of $17.67 million for 2025. Nice.

FINALLY … 

The Cardinals remained seven games behind first-place Milwaukee in the standings. The Brewers beat the visiting Reds 8-3 on Friday for their fourth consecutive win. During the four-game streak, the Brewers have averaged an astonishing 10.5 runs per game with 20 extra-base hits including 10 homers. They’ve hit .364 with a .449 OBP and .624 slug over the four games … in the wild-card jungle the Cardinals are 1 and ½ games behind the No. 3 Mets, but have the slumping Braves in front of them.

Thanks for reading …

Enjoy the rest of your weekend …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.