Bernie’s Redbird Review: With 66 Games Remaining On Their Schedule, The Cardinals Face Some Tough Questions.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Hello, it’s me. I don’t know about you, but I look forward to the day when the Cardinals are actually represented in MLB’s annual All-Star Game.

Closer Ryan Helsley was added to the National League squad by the commissioner’s office. He was the only St. Louis rep, but chose to make himself unavailable to pitch. So much for the local angle in Tuesday’s 5-3 victory by the American League.

I’m not suggesting the Cardinals have lost prestige, prominence, star power and luster. I’m not suggesting it because I’m saying it: the Cardinals have lost prestige, prominence, star power and luster.

Idling at 50-46, at least the Redbirds have a chance to claim a spot in October’s postseason tournament, and that beats a 71-91 record in 2023. If there’s to be a return to the glory days anytime soon, it starts by making the playoffs. Sources tell me it’s difficult to win a pennant or World Series if your team fails to make the playoffs.

I’ve been writing columns during the All-Star break to review the state of the Cardinals. The first column was my report–card summary of every area of the team. The second piece was a review of players that have to do better over the final two-plus months. The third column was a look at six of the most surprising performances during the first 96 games.

And now I’m back again with another look at the Cardinals as they pivot into the remaining 41 percent of their 2024 regular-season schedule. There are only 66 games left to determine their fate.

This brings me to my fourth in a series of “Cardinals at the All-Star break” columns from my content farm.

2024 CARDINALS
FACE TOUGH DECISIONS
GOING FORWARD

Let’s explore …

1. What will be the front-office approach at the trade deadline? Let’s get the tired cliche out of the way. This isn’t a matter of “buying” or “selling.” The Cardinals must be buyers for obvious reasons.

– Since May 12 the Birds on the Bat have fashioned the best record (35-22) in the National League. First place in the NL Central is within reach. For now, the Cardinals hold the No. 2 wild-card spot, but are just a half-game ahead of the No. 3 Mets. It’s a crazily crowded field. At the break, six NL other companies were situated within 3 and ½ games of the No. 3 spot. The Braves will likely win the top wild-card ticket, but the No. 2 and No. 3 vouchers are up for grabs. Let’s just assume the Braves will win the top wild card. That leaves eight teams in the scrum for the two other spots: Cardinals, Mets, Diamondbacks, Padres, Pirates, Reds, Giants and Cubs.

– President of baseball operations John Mozeliak and his entourage can’t ease up. The players are watching. The fans are watching. Everyone who cares about Cardinals baseball is wondering: what will Mozeliak do to augment his roster between now and July 30? The front office made enough offseason moves to raise the Cardinals into contention but must finish the job. Last season’s horrible collapse dulled ticket sales. The Cardinals have energized the fan base with a .614 winning percentage since Mother’s Day, and a more positive vibe is circulating at Busch Stadium. But it will be a long winter with a drop in business if the franchise fails to make the playoffs for the second straight year. If management sits out the deadline or makes a minor move or two just for show, the inaction will give credence to a familiar criticism: the Cardinals aren’t fully committed to winning.

– So, what do the Cardinals need? I’ll be writing a lot more on this as the trade deadline nears, so I’ll refrain from going bananas right now. I see three areas that should be addressed: the offense, starting-pitching depth, and coming up with an established reliever for added bullpen protection. The St. Louis offense is terrible vs. left-handed pitching, ranking 28th in the majors in slugging and 29th in batting average, onbase percentage and OPS. What should be the top priority? Opinions vary. But keep in mind what Mozeliak told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic earlier this month: “The big thing for the Cardinals is, will we score enough runs? Getting (Lars) Nootbaar and (Tommy) Edman back could change that calculus. We’ll see.”

2. The Paul Goldschmidt situation: If Goldy continues making a large volume of outs – an obvious weakness that has flattened his onbase percentage and lowered his power – manager Oli Marmol will have to do what’s best for the team. No, I don’t think he’ll bench Goldschmidt. But the Cardinals have no obligation to put Goldy in the prime lineup spots.

In 369 plate appearances batting second, third or fourth in the lineup, Goldschmidt has a .219 average, .281 OBP and .361 slug. Based on wRC+, Goldy is 17 percent below league average offensively when slotted at the 2-3-4 slots. This debilitates the offense and hurts the team. Goldy has had much more success – but in only 35 plate appearances – when hitting fifth in the lineup. A decrease in playing time should not be dismissed. Alec Burleson plays a decent first base, and using him there would give Marmol the flexibility to do more with the DH spot. Of course, Goldy can put all of this to rest by binging offensively when he comes out of the All-Star break.

3. When Edman returns from the IL, what does it mean for the 26-man roster? Our friend Dayn Perry wrote about this at his excellent Birdy Work blog at Substack. (You should subscribe.) Perry believes the Cardinals have five options, and I’ll list them here because I agree with his assessment.

A) Send outfielder Dylan Carlson to the minors.

B) Trade Carlson.

C) Option outfielder Michael Siani to the minors.

D) Designate batsman Matt Carpenter for assignment.

E) Designate backup infielder Brandon Crawford for assignment.

– Let’s rule out a couple of things. First, Siani is staying put. He’s one of the best defensive players (any position) in the majors and his work in center field has real value. Siani would get ample time as a starting CF against right-handed pitching, and as a defensive replacement. Second, the Cardinals won’t sack Carpenter. I’m not going to be a phony here and try to convince you that he’s doing a smash-up job as a hitter. He’s not. But Carpenter (per wRC+) has provided offense that’s seven percent below that of an average MLB hitter. That isn’t bad for a bench guy. Carpenter can draw some walks, get on base and contribute an occasional display of power. Carpenter’s extensive history with the franchise is a factor here. He’s a respected team leader who already has made a valuable contribution by giving transformational hitting advice to Alec Burleson.

– Unless Carlson can return a decent value in a trade, I see no reason to shoo him away. It’s nice to have a switch-hitter on the bench who can play at any of the three outfield positions. Carlson was brutal early on after returning from a shoulder injury that occurred when Jordan Walker ran into him. It took Carlson a while to sharpen his swing. But Carlson has batted .269 since June 7. Over that time Carlson has gone 6 for 14 (.427) with 11 RBIs with runners in scoring position. And he’s hit .265 lefties and .273 against righties.

When Edman rejoins the band the Cardinals will have six guys that can play the outfield: Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Burleson, Edman, Siani and Carlson. Isn’t that too many? Not really. Marmol wants to take advantage of the positional versatility provided by Donovan and Edman. Both can move around and play multiple infield positions, and that gives the Marmol more options for matchups. In the revised setup the Cardinals would have four guys to handle center field in Siani, Edman, Nootbaar and Carlson. Nootbaar is better in a corner outfield spot and will be used accordingly.

Burleson has taken 104 plate appearances at DH this season. With Donovan and Edman as rovers, and Burleson having a meaningful role at DH, there’s room for Carlson as an outfield reserve.

– OK, that leaves Brandon Crawford, age 37. He’s had a very good career. In San Francisco he was part of two World Series winners, won four Gold Gloves at shortstop, and was chosen to three All-Star teams. The Cardinals signed Crawford to have a backup at shortstop just in case Masyn Winn faltered or suffered an injury. Shortstop is Donovan’s weakest position and and Edman was on the IL. Crawford was brought in as insurance. And he’s been a mentor for Winn.

If Edman makes a healthy return, he can be slotted at shortstop as needed. Crawford can play third base – but so can Donovan and Edman and Gorman. Since the start of last season Crawford has a .188 average and an OPS+ that’s 38 percent below that of a league-average hitter. He’s hitting .161 for the Cardinals this season and is 46 percent below league average offensively.

Crawford chipped in some offense for a while but is 1 for 16 (.063) with five strikeouts since June 24. Crawford hasn’t been used much; he had only 71 plate appearances through STL’s first 96 games. There certainly are better ways to source that roster spot. In an emergency the Cardinals could turn to Triple A Memphis for Jose Fermin or prospect Thomas Saggese to plug in. Both have played at shortstop this season.

Here’s what I don’t know about the Crawford situation: did the Cardinals offer assurances to Crawford that he’d be with them for the entire season? The most logical move when Edman is ready to roll is designating Crawford for assignment – which would end his brief career with the Cardinals.

4. Are the Cardinals still fully committed to Nolan Gorman as their regular second baseman? He’s started 85 percent of the team’s games there this season but the Cardinals will have other ways to allocate the playing time at second. The return of Nootbaar and (later) Edman will create other possibilities. Donovan can play second. Edman can play second. This wouldn’t be an all-or-nothing scenario here. Edman and Donovan are movable parts, but they give Marmol the option of reducing the number of Gorman’s starts at second base. This isn’t a dump Gorman thing, either. He’s still just 24 years old, and he’s had a relatively low total of 251 games (211 starts) in the majors. Gorman has homered every 17.2 at-bats since coming to the majors in 2022. He’s also struck out in 34 percent of his plate appearances. The Cardinals just drafted J.J. Wetherholt with the seventh overall selection in the 2024 MLB Draft. He’s a strong contact hitter with ample, developing power who projects as a second baseman defensively.

5. Are the Cardinals committed to staying with Andre Pallante as their fifth starter? This takes us back to the trade-deadline possibilities. If the Cardinals believe in Pallante’s viability as a starter, it could influence their thinking as they contemplate moves. Pallante has a 3.70 ERA in eight starts this season. For his career, Pallante has a 3.86 ERA and an above-average Game Score of 52 in 18 starting assignments. (And his fielding independent ERA as a starter, 3.96, is similar.) Pallante isn’t a high-strikeout enforcer but keeps batters on the grass and dirt with a 60 percent ground-ball rate. But I must mention (again) Pallante’s problem with right-handed batters.

In the majors, RH batters have gone off on Pallante for a .317 average, .400 OBP and .449 slug. It’s bad again this season, with RH hitters slashing .324/.400/.510 against Pallante. This shouldn’t be overlooked. Pallante has trouble pitching deeper into games. Small sample and all of that, but as a starter this season, Pallante has yielded a glaring .282/.371/.506 slash line in his second and third times through the opponent’s lineup. Is this the kind of pitching profile a team can trust?

6. How will Marmol allocate at-bats at DH? This season Matt Carpenter, Alec Burleson and Willson Contreras have taken 75 percent of the plate appearances at DH for the Cardinals. Contreras has great numbers at DH. Burleson has above-average numbers at DH. Carpenter’s DH stats are slightly below average. Combining the stats at DH, the Carp-Contreras-Burly troika has a .260 average, .336 OBP and .417 slug with three homers and 12 RBIs. And when other hitters get turns at DH, they’ve combined for a .206 average, no homers, and seven RBIs.

I’m throwing a lot of numbers at you to make the point. Overall the DH spot has been a below-average producer for the 2024 Cardinals. The Redbirds rank 10th or worse among the 15 NL teams in all of the offensive categories. And their designated hitters have collectively slugged .387 with 11 homers and just 24 RBIs.

I’m curious to see how Marmol will handle the situation. Their best lineup – from an offensive standpoint – would have Contreras catching and Burleson installed at DH. Utilizing Burleson at DH also makes the Cardinals better defensively in the outfield; Burleson is a minus 6 (below average) in defensive runs saved when playing right field. Marmol has gotten away from having Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado as part of the DH network. The two are 3 for 27 (.111) when used at DH this season.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.