His numbers are good, not great. The respect from fans and media can be best described as “tepid.” But, I argue he has been what he was signed to be, an Ace.
Now that I’ve lost 73% of readers who will now leave scathing comments after reading a sentence, how about us fair and open-minded folks have a chat? I have always argued that at the end of the endless statistics, metrics, analytics, and sabermetrics there is only one stat that actually matters in sports; who won and who lost. That’s it, that’s the list.
The rest of the numbers are great, they tell you how wins and losses occurred, what may possibly happen in the future to a certain percentage. But, they are mere ingredients, reviews, and talking points that add up to wins and losses.
Jul 19, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Sonny Gray (54) throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images
Sonny Gray by the Numbers
As a Cardinal Sonny Gray’s numbers are fine. Not great, not horrendous. Just fine, kinda like a turkey and cheese on white, it’ll get the job done. He’s started 51 games and posted a 23-14 record with an ERA right at 4.00. In his 294.2 innings he has fanned 344 and walked 60. Yes we’d all like an ERA in the low three’s or two’s, and we’d like him to stop giving out home runs like they’re free samples at Sam’s on Sundays. But what really matters?
Team Success is Greater than Individual Performance
Gray was signed with the idea that when he takes the mound the team wins. That is what aces do. When that guy is out there the entire team gets a little more pep in their step, a little more hitch in their giddy-up.
When I think Cardinal ace I immediately think of Chris Carpenter, the last Card to bring home a Cy Young. When that guy pitched every Redbird fan from Chouteau to Fayetteville, AR felt their chest puff out. He has the ball, WE were going to win. And boy did they. In the 198 games in which Chris Carpenter pitched the team won 125 of them. That means that in 63% of all games he pitched in the team got that W. Over the course of a 162 game season that would equate to about 102 wins. I’ll take that all day.
Well, how about Sonny? Yes, a bit smaller sample size as we’re just in August of his second season here in the STL, but he’s been good. I mean, he’d never be Carp good, right?
Sonny Gray:
- Games Pitched = 51.
- Team Wins = 34.
- Team Winning % = 66%
- Extrapolated Over 162 = 107 games
So, if Sonny Gray had the ability to pitch every single game of a season your Cardinals would go 107-55.
Why the so-so stats?
Like my waist line since youth, Sonny is way up and waaaay down. There are nights, like this week absolutely dominating the Dodgers, when Sonny looks like the best pitcher on the planet. Nights like June 27th when he threw a complete game shutout, stuck out 11 and only allowed one hit on 89 pitches. There has not been a better performance this season.
Then, there have been nights when he’s been hit harder than both Hagler and Hearns. Six earned, seven earned, eighth earned…can I get another six earned runs! But, like a champ after getting knocked to the mat, he pops up and reminds you who he is. I heard Tony Kornheiser once refer to this as “an obligation to greatness.” When you’ve been great, when you know that absolute domination is in you, you summon it when most needed and the world remembers who and what you are.
Who better do you want?
When Paul Skenes pitches the Pirates are 11-12 this season. When Matthew Boyd pitches the Cubs are 12-10. When Zack Wheeler pitches the Phillies are 14-8. All of these are lower team winning percentages this season than Sonny’s 2025 team percentage of 74%. The difference is that their bad games are just bad, not unsightly. They don’t get lit up like the VP Fair on the 4th of July.
I remember talking to my good friend (and Co-Author of You Wouldn’t Believe Me if I Told You) Jay Delsing about consistency on the PGA Tour. He said that the great ones have a bad day and somehow grind out a +1 or +2. They don’t let it snowball to a +5 or worse. That’s where Gray needs to improve, get those days of 5, 6, 7, and 8 earned runs to be 4 earned runs. The team still may not win, but your personal numbers won’t balloon.
One more season in the Gray
He’s on the books in 2026 for a cool $35 million and the Cards need him. Think about it, this season they are a .500 team and the team is 11 games over when he’s on the bump. You think the crowds are bad now, imagine if he wasn’t here. Gate revenue down. Team store revenue down. Local restaurant revenue down. TV and radio ad revenue waaay down.
He’s not Gibson, or Tudor, or Carpenter, but he’s pretty dang good. Actually, he’s the best we have right now and he should be appreciated as such. In a time of youth and change it’s good to have a true pro who is still racking up the W’s around for the whipper snappers to learn from.
-Will Saulsbery
Born and raised in St. Louis, Will Saulsbery is a multitalented writer and musician. A graduate of the University of Missouri, Saulsbery has established himself as a prominent ghostwriter, with his work appearing in top-tier publications like Newsweek, Time, Forbes, Fast Company, Tech Crunch, Entrepreneur, The Observer, and The Hill.
His collection of short stories, Death in the Midwest, A Collection Of Nine Stories Of Death In The Midwestern United States... And One In London, is now available for sale and download. He is also the host of the podcast Hoops on Scoops for the Scoops Sports Network.
